GAMBLING AND OTHER WHOLESOME INTERESTS

SATURDAY .....

2012-02-10T21:38:00.002Z

EPL: SUNDERLAND - ARSENAL
Strange game in as much as these two meet here again in the FA Cup next week, there is a strong case for arguing that a win today is more important for the Gunners and next week for the home side.

Arsenal are coming off a rare free midweek, so have had seven days to bask in the glow of their 7-1 defeat of Blackburn Rovers and Arsene Wenger at least knows his team are creating plenty of chances ( 54 in their last two starts, or one every 3.33 minutes), even if that was the first time they have really cut loose in many weeks, probably since the Wigan game in early December. Oxlade-Chamberlain looks the real deal already and he, along with Thierry Henry take some of the pressure off RVP, add the return of Arteta in midfield and suddenly, despite their defensive issues, they look a real team again. They do have the small matter of a midweek trip to Milan to consider, but first priority is a top 4 place and already trailing Chelsea and Newcastle United and with Liverpool now just a point behind and coming on strong, the Gunners have to go all out for three points today, especially with their next two league starts against Tottenham and Liverpool.

For the hosts, this will be their fifth start in 13 days and after extra time on Wednesday night, a lengthy injury list , secure in eighth spot in the EPL and with no realistic ambitions of a higher position and a big game next week, they can be forgiven for letting the intensity drop just a little. I have to take Arsenal and will opt for the bigger handicap now that they have found their touch in front of goal. 1.5 units Arsenal -0.75 ball 2.49 asian line.

Good Luck.

CONTE TO COUNT ON NEW SIGNINGS AT SAN SIRO ....

2012-02-08T06:53:00.005Z

COPPA ITALIA SEMI FINAL FIRST LEG : AC MILAN - JUVENTUS

These Coppa semis tend to be keenly fought close affairs and I see this one following type. For the hosts, Zlatan has picked up a three match domestic ban, but it only applies to Serie A games, so he should play tonight. Milan have a very tough week in prospect, they go to Udinese at the weekend and host Arsenal in the Champions League on Wednesday, despite anything the club might say, tonight's game is definitely a poor third in order of importance and they will also be wary of collecting any further injuries, having an already busy treatment room , or to give too much away ahead of what might well be a title deciding league meeting with Juve here at the end of the month. Latest of those is goalkeeper Christian Abbiati, more of him later.

Storari will be start in goal for Juventus and coach Antonio Conte has also said that transfer window signings Martin Caceres, Simone Padoin and Marco Borriello will all feature at the San Siro.You could look at that as weakening the squad, but they are all either proven International players, or, in the case of Padolin, one already closing in on 300 games, most in "A" . In addition, 13 of the other outfield players named in the 22 man squad, have made at least a dozen starts this season, so hard to view this as the "severely weakened squad" I have seen it called elsewhere.

Milan have turned into flat track bully's, almost always beating the lesser teams ( they are 6-1-0 in starts against teams in the bootom seven), however, they are 1-3-4 in eight outings against other teams in the top seven, the only win coming 3-2 against Roma, where their opponents had 23 attempts on goals and 13 corners and that man Abbiati saved his team on numerous occasions. They did beat Lazio here in the last round, but that was on the back of the visitors second trip to the San Siro inside 4 days, they had lost 2-1 to Inter late on Sunday after leading and rested a lot of players for the second game. Actually, they led there too and Milan's third goal was offside, but that is another story !

Hosts have a powerful midfield, but they appear to lack the flair to really trouble the top teams in Seri A and with two such huge games ahead, I think we will see a low key home performance, having said that, they will not want to go into those games with a loss, so the draw option for me, a result I suspect both teams would be happy with ,btw, Milan have drawn their last three Coppa semi final first leg games. Draw 3.20 + quite a bit of 3.30 on the exchanges at present.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .......

2012-02-05T15:51:00.003Z

EPL: CHELSEA - MANCHESTER UNITED ( written 19.00 saturday)

No Cole or Terry for the Blues, Drogba and Kalou are still at the ACN, Wayne Rooney and Ashley Young should return for United. Many people might feel that the visitors will have twelve men on the pitch with Howard Webb chosen to officiate, he has a reputation for favouring United, but the stats do not really back that up, although Liverpool supporters might disagree ! We have seen a big change this season in matches between the top teams in the EPL, all have been open, more aggressive , high scoring affairs, with Chelsea's meetings with the other five averaging 4.0 goals per game and United's nine starts an eyepopping 4.67 . Those fourteen matches have seen both teams score in 13, the only team who came up short, was Tottenham in their early season visit to Old Trafford and to be honest, Spurs should have scored a couple at least. Included in that squence of games, was United's 3-1 win in the reverse fixture, Chelsea didn't deserve to lose that day and missed a host of chances, 29 in total, along with 10 corners. The hosts will probably be a little more relaxed today than they usually are going into these fixtures and it is certainly more important to United who are set to go toe to with City for the title. However, I expect the trend to continue and definitely both teams to score, but also each to press in search of a winner, I have a feeling this might be Fernando Torres' day, goodness knows it has been long enough, but he played well in the first meeting and one day soon things will fall for him. Anyway, a confident "over" pick for me. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

2012-02-04T16:54:00.003Z

Everton didn't win, but the late goal came and that was available at 2.96 in asia at the 80th minute mark.

I briefly previewed one other early EPL game ....

EPL : ARSENAL- BLACKBURN ROVERS

This pair had 58 attempts between them in midweek and scored..... zero goals ! Quite how Rovers came up short at Ewood Park against the Magpies will have to remain one of life's great mysteries, Yakubu must have scored six from the stands and the person sitting in front of him will have been black and blue in the morning. He is still suspended and Christopher Samba will not be considered, but these two create a lot of chances and in a fixture which almost always produces goals and a lot of them, it is easy to see an excess of excitement. The pair played out a seven goal thriller in the reverse fixture and something similar is not impossible, Robin van Persie always likes to face Rovers and he has scored 10 in his last dozen games against the visitors. Hosts had Sagna and Arteta back in midweek and they should strip fitter today. I think the three goal asian line is a little on the skinny side and am happier taking a little on the "over" 4.5 line @ circa 4.60 or the "over" 5.5 line at around 10.0, which would not surprise me at all, but for the purposes of the email I will leave those.

So, "officially" I have lost on those two games, despite "suggesting" four bets, three of which won at odds of 10.0, 4.60 and 2.96 . As I always say, my daily notes are about so much more than the basic results and there are plenty of winners contained within the content, if you are not too lazy to look.

Good Luck.

TOFFEES COMING ON STRONG ?

2012-02-04T09:14:00.003Z

EPL: WIGAN ATHLETIC - EVERTON

A good transfer window for the Toffees and it is a very long time since we have been able to say that. Nikica Jelavic and Steven Pienaar have joined/returned and both look set to be involved at least on the bench ( Darron Gibson signed earlier in the month), although David Moyes might be loathe to change the team that has just beaten the league leaders. They have made a habit of beating the struggling teams on the road, already posting wins at Bolton, Fulham, Blackburn and WBA. also winning on three of their last five visits here in a stadium where they always get huge travelling support.
Everton almost always pick up after Christmas and in the last three seasons have averaged 1.19 points before Boxing Day and 1.92 after, which is a massive difference and the signs are there for a similar improvement in the second half of this campaign. They trail Newcastle United by ten points in the "best of the rest" race and that will be their EPL target for the rest of the campaign, along with a big run in the FA Cup. Wigan have posted just three wins all season and one in nine, they are almost at the stage where a draw is not much help and we can expect this match to get very stretched after the break. Everton have scored 74% of their goals in the second half and a third of all scored, have come from substitutes, which could be interesting if the new guys start on the bench. In the four Everton road wins I mentioned earlier, six of the seven goals they scored came after the break, four inside the final three minutes, four of Wigan's last five games have also seen late goals ( after the 80th minute). This is another game where you could look for at the in running "over" market as the match enters the final ten minutes, a bet which has served us very well this season. However, for the purposes of the email, I will take Everton -0.5 ball 2.19 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ......

2012-02-04T07:53:00.004Z

Rickie Fowler is in a share of 22nd place at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after two rounds, a two over par six at the 17th hole cost him dear and what would have been a share of sixth place overnight, but he is still very much in contention for that top ten finish.

There is a bet below for today's African Cup of Nations quarter finals, but it is the pre tournament preview, part of which is also reproduced, that contained the real "gold" and all of you were offered a free copy of that on January 20th.

I will be back later in the day with some more thoughts.

AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS:

ZAMBIA- SUDAN

My original ACN notes are reproduced below, we were firmly in the Ghana and Zambia camp then and I am happy with the way things have gone so far and we have a good value outright bet, even better if you have taken Zambia too, even if it was only for a couple of euros.

Zambia have continued to impress me and were it not for the monsoon in Bata on Matchday 2, I am certain the would be three from three so far. Sudan have overachieved to reach this stage and were fortunate that they met an already eliminated Burkina Faso team in the last round of matches and also that the Ivory Coast played fair and beat Angola, a match they did not need to win. I am convinced that Sedan will sit back today and try and stifle the game, but do not feel they are solid enough defensively, having conceded in all three group starts, to keep the talented and pacy Zambian forwards out for 45 minutes, let alone 90. They lost a key central defender in their last game and that means a defensive reshuffle too today. I cannot see beyond this very talented Zambian team who have unfinished business in this competition. 1.75 units Zambia -0.5 ball 1.80 + asian line.

Written 20/01
Zambia arrive here without Jacob Mulenga, the Utrecht striker and he will be missed, but I expect them to go well none the less. They will arrive as one of the best prepared, the squad having been together pretty much since early December, that is over six weeks and included some high altitude work which is going to serve them well down at these sea level venues, we discussed the ( perhaps obvious) benefits of this during the last World Cup. They are a confident bunch and with many still in their early twenties, are improving and they look set to play a part in all major championships in the next 4-5 years. Four of the starters were regulars in their own "golden generation" team which performed with great credit at the 2007 U20 World Cup, beating Uruguay and running Spain, who included Mata and Gerard Pique, close and even ragged at times.

If you watched the last ACN, you will doubtless remember them, they lost in the quarter finals to Nigeria on penalties in a match they totally dominated and previously were all over Cameroon in the group decider, losing to a very late winner after missing several chances to take a two goal lead. That is a problem, they do not score quite enough in relation to the chances they create, but mark my words, this is a very talented group.

They have extra motivation to do well, as much for a former generation as theirselves, with 28 national players and officials dying off the coast of Libreville, Gabon en route to a World Cup qualifier with Senegal in Dakar in 1994. Even the President spoke of this in a personal message to the squad, saying

“You will recall from history and from your football leadership the special place that Gabon – venue of the 2012 final match – holds in our football history. It is the place where your predecessors valiantly died off the shores of the Atlantic Ocean.

Therefore, this tournament brings us those memories and makes this Africa Cup a very emotional one. That, however, should not put you under any pressure. It should instead inspire you to conquer.”

He then went on to urge his team to "die a little for Mother Zanbia " and to "fight for every ball, cover every space and in the true sense of the might of the Chipolopolo, never to feel intimidated by anybody or surrender to any opposition."

I wonder if David Cameron will get so passionate before Euro 2012 !

Back in charge since October is Herve Renard, who guided them to the last eight in 2010, he left after that and was replaced by italian coach Dario Bonetti, that didn't work very well, an italian in Zambia was like oil on water and the players called upon their FA and President to remove him, they admitted afterwards that Bonetti had given them a tactical edge they perhaps lacked before, but are so much happier with Renard at the helm and the six weeks together have helped them re-bond as a unit. They are still as explosive, but feel they have added discipline to their approach and that will serve them very well here. If not, keep them in mind for World Cup qualification, even though they will have to finish above Ghana to advance.

I am sure that we will make some money in the next month following Senegal and Zambia, unfortunately they start against each other, my feeling is that Zambia at circa 6.50 are ridiculously big to win and if pushed to pick on the asian line, I would have to side with them getting a 0.75 goal handicap start, in a match where a draw would not be the end of the world for the favoured team, but think I will have to pass.

On the other side of the draw are Ghana, who look very strong indeed. We all got a glimpse of their potential in the last World Cup, 14 of this squad were involved in South Africa and which made the quarter finals, seven of those are still only aged between 21 and 23 and this is a group of immense talent and potential which is going to continue to improve. Whilst young, they are battle hardened and the core were in the squad which lost in extra time to a star laden Spain in the semi-finals of the 2007 U17 World Cup. Seven were in the group which went even better in the U20 running in 2009, beating Brazil in the final

Seventeen of this current squad are aged 25 or younger, but experienced, with 13 having over 23 apperances, well above average for the tournament. After finishing 3rd in 2008, runner up in 2010, they are poised to go one better this time round and in a group where it is difficult to see them struggling and no Ivory Coast, Senegal or even dare I say it, Zambia on the immediate horizon, they should be able to work their way slowly into peak form.

They look so much stronger now than the team which made the last 8 in South Africa and they are my idea of the winners. 1.5 units Ghana outright 5.0 + ... there is some 5.50 available.

I do think that Zambia, available at 85.0 on Betfair for tiny money, will trade much shorter at some stage and will offer trading opportunities for whomever is quick enough to take it !

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES....

2012-02-02T11:01:00.002Z

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 2ND

Next email will be sent Friday morning at the "normal" time which is circa 10.00 UK.

I have two golf selections for this week and a football bet for the weekend, this is my first two unit football bet of the year, two things about that, one I obviously like it a lot and as I explained last month, there will not be many of these in future and the difference between a 1.5 unit and 2 unit bet is big, as it ticks ALL the boxes and not just most of them, however, two units is my max bet, so there it is. BUT, it is very far from a sure thing, just one I feel offers very good value, odds are close to even money and my idea of the correct quote is nearer to 1.55, but 1.55 shots lose every day of the week.

I am going to start with the PGA event, the Waste Management Phoenix Open, played at the TPC Scottsdale, in front of the biggest , most raucous crowds in golf, which suit 23 yo Rickie Fowler very well. Fowler is very happy playing on the West Coast and was born in Murrieta, just a couple of hours along Interstate 10 from Scottsdale.

Fowler played here as a rookie in 2010 and finished second, shooting four really solid rounds of 65-67-69-68, he was bogey free on the sunday, so the pressure certainly didn't get to him. last year he made his season debut at Torrey Pines, where he finished top 20 and then came here and posted a tie for 13th, he shot a low score of the day 62 on Friday, but nothing really fell his way on the other days,however, he was under par on each and eight from eight sub par rounds is impressive. He again played Torrey Pines last week on his 2012 debut and shot 68-70-71-70 for another tie for 13th, an improvement on last year and so we are sure about his well being coming in.He was also ranked first for greens in regulation with shots hit from 100-125 yards, which will be a key stat here, as the ball flys quite a way in the desert, so you are usually playing shorter approach shots. He didn't play the back nine particularly well at TP, or have much luck, but he was great off the tee all week (also ranked 2nd for fairways hit), so is obviously in pretty good shape. Fowler has a breakthrough victory in Korea in October, by six strokes from Rory McIlroy and that win should set him up nicely to break his duck in his homeland, it should definitely come this year and why not this week ? 1.25 units Rickie Fowler to finish top ten 3.25 +... there is quite a bit of 3.50 on offer and I am pretty sure that you will get matched at that quote on the exchanges, over the next 24 hours. He was focused on this tournament immediately after he finished his final round last week, twice mentioning it in four questions at his post round interview ....

RICKIE FOWLER: Definitely a good start to the year, and I got a lot of momentum out of it. Ready to go for next weekend.

Q. Who is this guy Kyle Stanley? Have you seen him play much?

RICKIE FOWLER: I have. '07 Walker Cup teammate of mine. Great guy. Obviously, he's showing off his skills this week.

Q. Talk to me again about the crowd and what's it like playing near home?

RICKIE FOWLER: Well, I definitely have a lot of great fans and supporters, especially here in Southern California. Lot of friends and family come out as well. It's fun for me. I get to see some people I don't get to see all the time and play in front of people that are here to support me. So definitely makes it for a fun week.

Q. What is your schedule like the next three weeks?

RICKIE FOWLER: So far playing in the next two and that's what I'm planning on. Really just kind of focusing on playing well next week in the Waste Management.

The European Tour moves onto Qatar and the Commercialbank Qatar Masters. They have ......

Good Luck.

"MAD DOG" MIGHT STRUGGLE TO GET COUNTY "UP" FOR THIS ....

2012-01-31T09:10:00.005Z

LEAGUE 1 : WALSALL - NOTTS COUNTY

I suspect County might be running on empty, this will be their fourth start in ten days, they will be very disappointed to have gone out of the cup to Stevenage at the weekend , missing out on a huge 5th round match with Tottenham, whom boss Martin Allen has big family ties with. It will be hard for them to get "up" for this game with little to play for in the league and they have met two teams recently who play at a very high tempo, so energy reserves will be low. They have an early chance to get some revenge over Stevenage, who come to Meadow Lane on saturday and might be more interested in that, they are certainly stronger on home soil, having already lost nine times on the road, the most of any team in League 1. Striker Lee Hughes has renewed off the pitch problems and it is hard to see too many positives for County, who have won just once in ten starts.

Hosts have not played for ten days, so should be fresh and raring to go, they are coming off road draws at Carlisle United and Brentford and whilst they showed limited ambition in those games, it was hard not to be impressed by how they stuck to their task and they are clearly geared up for a big relegation battle, anything earned on the road is a bonus, but it is at home where their fate will be decided and they have already collected points here against a number of top teams. I was surprised that they were able to take Belgium U19 international attacking midfielder Florent Cuvelier on loan from Stoke City, he is being watched by Tottenham and Manchester City and is definitely one with a huge future and was voted into the European Under-19 Championships team of the tournament last summer. He goes straight into the squad.

Saddlers are outside the drop zone only on goal difference and travel to Scunthorpe United, the team immediately below them on Saturday, so will be desperate to increase their advantage before then. They have a very tough finish to the season, playing all of the top six in the last two months, so this coming 5-6 weeks will go a long way to deciding their fate. Big game for the hosts and off level ball, they have to be my pick. 1.5 units Walsall level ball 1.98 asian line.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

2012-01-29T13:27:00.003Z

ITV executives must have been desperate for Novak Djokovic to win the fourth set, how many viewers outside the North East will be turning over to watch Sunderland - Middlesbrough, rather than the first ever fifth set between Rafa and Nole ?

I am exhausted from today's sport and it is still only lunchtime !

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..... PLENTY OF EARLY ACTION .....

2012-01-28T10:37:00.005Z

FA CUP : QPR - CHELSEA

West London derby with added spice from the league meeting and the Ferdinand- Terry saga, which is still ongoing. Rangers won that earlier meeting 1-0, Blues played 50 minutes with nine men, yet still dominated most of the play and chances.

Chelsea's title challenge hit the rails that day and has never really got back on track.

They are fourth in the EPL and will be looking to move up to third before the end of the season, but 14 points adrift of Manchester City, their title hopes have realistically gone. Therefore, I think they will be eager to win today, not just for a little revenge, but to progress in a domestic competition. However, what they will not want is a replay on February 8th, that would come immediately after their meeting with Manchester United and would mean 4 games inside 13 days, directly before their Champions League trip to Naples.

Rangers defeat of Wigan last week has given them some minimal breathing space over the bottom three, but they are still five points adrift of WBA and remain one of five teams seemingly set to battle until the end of May, to avoid three relegation spots. They will likewise want to avoid a replay, which would be sandwiched between six pointers with both Wolves and Blackburn Rovers. Therefore , we can look for both teams to get this decided today.

This is an early kick off and as such, will surely suit the visitors more, being their seventh lunchtime kickoff of the campaign. QPR have played three "early" games and lost all of them, without scoring a goal. We have discussed before about how footballers are very much creatures of habit and do not like to change their match day schedule, particularly sleeping and eating regimes. Chelsea are far more used to this disruption, infact for them it is normal and 12.00 is very early for UK games to start. Think we will see Chelsea really up for this today and I expect them to win comfortably. 1.5 units Chelsea -1 ball 1.94 + asian line.

LEAGUE 2 : HEREFORD UNITED - SHREWSBURY TOWN

Yet another derby game here and quite a passionate one.

The Shrews have had the better of recent meetings under boss Graham Turner, who was in the hot seat at United for 15 years and knows the hosts as well as any man ( or woman ) alive ! They won 2-0 here in April and in the reverse fixture this season 3-1 and neither scoreline flattered them.

Despite this knowledge, Turner is taking nothing for granted and watched the Bulls personally in a 2-1 loss at home to Bristol Rovers recently, the latest in a series of dire home performances. They have not won here in seven starts since October, losing five and conceding 15 goals in the process. Turner remarked that Hereford play a very aggressive, physical game, not dissimilar to Southend United, whom Shrewsbury saw off last week, despite playing with ten men for an hour. That was very impressive and if the Bulls are a poor mans Southend, the visitors should be able to repeat that showing today.

Anyway, few surprises for Town who sit four points off an automatic promotion spot, but seven clear of eighth, so basically "freerolling" for that top 3 place, for any poker players out there . With little to lose and no need to settle for a point, especially with matches against highflying rivals Torquay, Swindon and Crawley next month.

Striker Marvin Morgan is suspended, but despite having three other options up front, Turner has still decided to add some cover, bringing in Romaine Sawyer on loan from WBA, this is a clear indication of the resources Town have and their determination to take no chances and get into the top three this time round, having missed out narrowly in recent seasons. 1,300 away supporters snapped up their full allocation of tickets and many more are expected to make it into the home ends, this should see them make up around 50% of the attendance and makes a huge difference in such a tiny stadium/ crowd, I expect them to go home happy. I would prefer the straight win, but that is circa 2.10, so the asian line quote offers better value... 1.5 units Shrewsbury Town -0.25 ball 1.88 asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .... A TRIP HOME TO ROME, MIGHT PUT A SMILE ON RANIERI'S FACE ...

2012-01-25T10:09:00.005Z

I have put up three selections today and whilst I do not wish to post any of those on the blog, I did discuss a couple of other matches briefly, which I am happy to share ....

COPPA ITALIA:
CHIEVO VERONA- SIENA

NAPOLI- INTER MILAN

I am not going to get overly involved in these games, but do have an opinion on each, which I will give briefly.

To be honest, I was very surprised by the opening asia quotes for Chievo and whilst their odds have fallen a little overnight, still feel they are a little big at circa 2.26 to win this and there is some 2.375 in places as I type. Hosts have 24 points in Serie A which sees them in 8th place and more importantly, nine points clear of Cesena and the drop zone. That should allow them to focus purely on this match and worry about the weekend visit from Lazio, tomorrow. They are 5-3-1 here in the league and have only conceded four times. The visitors have picked up recently and have a good record in this fixture and stadium, but remain just one spot outside the drop zone and have their big derby game with Fiorentina at the weeekend, they also play Juventus and Roma in the next couple of weeks and do they really need a two legged tie with the winners of the other match being played today, thrown into the equation ? They have also travelled with a huge group of players, every available player, 26 in total and that surely indicates that they will make wholesale changes. Either way, the odds on Chievo look wrong, given the likely motivation of each.

Inter have not won in Napoli inside 90 minutes in six visits and surely you would think they had bigger objectives, they are now up to 4th in the table and definitely in the title race and have a Champions League meeting with Marseille on the near horizon, things could hardly have gone better for Claudio Ranieri, but the "tinkerman" seems reluctant to let this match go. He has named a pretty identical squad (see below) to the one which battled past Lazio at the weekend and this son of Rome, seems determined to want to go to the final in the Eternal City. I find that hard to comprehend, given that Inter have won this four times already in the last seven seasons, but Ranieri has not won a domestic honour in his own country since 1996, so maybe that, is his motivation. Napoli like to play very narrow and on the counter and if Inter play like they did at Milan and sit back too, it is difficult to see too many goals. Last six h2h meetings here have produced just five goals, the last three have all been draws after 90 minutes and given their likely style of play, if there is not an early breakthrough, this should follow suit. Under 2.25 goals at circa 2.02 is a little tempting and would be my pick if you forced me to make one.

Goalkeepers: 1 Julio Cesar, 12 Luca Castellazzi, 21 Paolo Orlandoni;

Defenders: 2 Ivan Cordoba, 4 Javier Zanetti, 6 Lucio, 13 Maicon, 23 Andrea Ranocchia, 25 Walter Samuel, 26 Cristian Chivu, 37 Davide Faraoni;

Midfielders: 8 Thiago Motta, 10 Wesley Sneijder, 11 Ricardo Alvarez, 18 Andrea Poli, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 20 Joel Obi;

Forwards: 7 Giampaolo Pazzini, 22 Diego Milito, 28 Mauro Zarate, 30 Luc Castaignos.

In the African Cup of Nations, if you are not on Zambia outright.....

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES .....

2012-01-24T17:34:00.001Z

LEAGUE 2 : TORQUAY UNITED - DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

I do not rush to oppose teams desperate for points at this stage of the season, but I have to take on the Daggers tonight, they have had a nightmare ten days, losing a six pointer at home to Hereford United, crossing the Thames to receive a 5-0 hammering from Millwall in the cup, then travelling all the way to Crewe at the weekend to concede another four and now another long coach trip to deepest Devon, to face highflying Torquay United who are up to sixth after three straight road wins and can close to within five points of an automatic spot with the win tonight, they host basement club Northampton Town on saturday, so extra incentive for the win. Martin Ling knows how to get out of this division and has got the Gulls really playing well, no selection problems for him, he said yesterday "Everybody is fit and all 22 players trained together today," said Martin. "Our physio Damian Davey is taking all the credit at the moment and he's got his feet up"."It's brilliant to have everyone available and we'll go with the same 18-man squad we took to Morecambe on Saturday.

I have just watched highlights of a couple of recent Daggers games and they have really struggled to defend from dead balls and United have scored their opening goal from corners in three of their last five starts. I could see another collapse from Dagenham if they concede first tonight and they must be drained after so much time on the bus in the last 4-5 days. 1.5 units Torquay United -0.75 ball 1.91 asian line.

Good Luck.

GIVE ME A BREAK !

2012-01-23T10:06:00.002Z

I am not coming off a very good weekend, I previewed five events yesterday and whilst two won, it was the first two ( which is never the best way round) and at least two of the others should have followed suit and the other three games were all played late and I feel tired , hungry and very sorry for myself ! It was not the losses, goodness knows I am used to those after so many years and we always end up on the right side in the end, but the manner of defeat was a little tough to take.

Anyway, some brief details below from today's notes and also team news from one of tonight's games you might have missed.

MONDAY JANUARY 23RD

I feel a little like I was personally violated yesterday .

Bilbao had plenty of the ball and chances, but two penalties and a red card saw Real win by three and on another day, in another stadium, possibly two of those would not have been awarded.

The Baltimore Ravens just threw the game and more importantly for us, the extra couple of points required, away. They had not made the most of a couple of earlier trips to the "red zone" but what happened in the last drive of the game, was hard to take. Firstly, Lee Evans "caught" a reception in the end zone, but it was stripped out of his hands, to many people, it looked like he had possession long enough for the touchdown to be awarded, but no. LINK Nevermind, minutes later, Billy Cundiff had a field goal attempt from 32 yards to tie the game, he has made 16 from 16 of these inside the fourth quarter in the last two seasons and 20 from 22 of all attempts at 40 yards or less this season and pushed this one wide. LINK

The San Francisco defeat was just as hard to take, they lost by three but "gifted" the Giants ten points, following not one, but two fumbled punt returns from Kyle Williams, the second in overtime. The first was a killer, as that was a terrible error, he had chosen not to return the ball, so had to just get "out of the way", instead he hung around like a bad smell and let it hit his leg, making the ball active, I guess he had as bad a night's sleep as me ! LINK

Manchester City and Milan had won in the afternoon and I suppose we had some luck with the late, late City winner, but they had led by two earlier in the game.......... pretty tough day !

A brief look at today's action ....

Hard to believe that Villarreal were still playing Champions League football early last month, they now sit inside the bottom three and host Barcelona on Saturday and then the very poor travellers go to Sevilla, where they have lost five straight and on nine of their last ten visits.Tonight they host a "must win" game with fellow strugglers Sporting Gijon and if ever there was a "six pointer" for the Yellow Submarine, then this is it . Fortunately for them, their form at El Madrigal has held up to a degree and they are 3-4-1 on home soil. New coach Jose Molina has been at the helm just over a month, but overseen just two games, a 3-0 defeat at resurgent Atletico last week and a 2-2 home draw with Valencia, where his team blew a two goal lead. Ruben and Nilmar looked lively together upfront in that game and they had chances to reassert their two goal advantage, before conceding a late equaliser. Ruben missed the game in Madrid but he and Camunas return today. However, Nilmar has not been named in the squad, he is said to have returned to Brazil and joined Sao Paulo, with Guiseppe Rossi already out, this means that Rubens and young "B" striker Joselu are the only two forwards named and with such limited options ( Valero is the only other player named who has contributed more than a single goal this season), I have to let this one pass.

In the ACN, the North African "derby" between Tunisia and Morocco takes centre stage . They are both fairly similar teams in that they are very disciplined defensively and ...... .....

Good Luck.

BILBAO LOOK THE REAL DEAL ....

2012-01-22T16:18:00.003Z

In La Liga, email favourites Athletic Bilbao make the daunting trip to the Bernabeu to face Real Madrid. They do not have the greatest record in the capital, very few do and have lost on nine of their last ten visits. However, they usually manage to register a goal and have scored in six of their last eight ( twice on two occasions) including on their last three visits. They also arrive in very confident mood ( unbeaten in ten domestic games) and I doubt they see themselves as lambs to the slaughter.

Hosts will want to bounce back from yet another loss to Barcelona in midweek and will want a positive result to take into the second leg in Catalonia, a match which is likely to have a knock on effect to any future meetings this season.

Real have conceded in six of their last seven starts, twice on three occasions and are very gung ho at times, for a Jose Mourinho coached team. They were lucky to follow up the league defeat to Barce with a cup trip to lowly Ponferradin this season, which allowed them to steady the ship somewhat,as, at the end of last season following their quartet of matches with Barce, they struggled especially defensively in subsequent games, including a 3-2 home defeat to Zaragoza.

Hard to know if it will have the same effect this time, but I do not see this talented Bilbao side as a lost cause and whilst I will not make that my bet, an away win at circa 14.0 would not totally surprise me.

I definitely think that Bilbao will score and if you can find the 1.80 for that, it offers value IMO, but I prefer the two goal option at more attractive odds, up to 5.50 is available and that is HUGE, anything around 4.50 is acceptable and that is what I will be taking if at all possible, my own odds are circa 3.20 !

However, liquidity is a problem there, so for the purposes of the email, I will take 1.25 units Athletic Bilbao +2 goals 1.86 asian line. In 30 starts across all competitions this campaign, Athletic have only once lost by two goals, in a meaningless Europa league tie. They are a club on the up, with an astute coach, getting stronger by the week and they might easily finish top 4 this season, infact, I think they will.

Athletic Bilbao: Iraizoz, Toquero, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Koikili, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Iñigo Pérez, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez and Ibai.

Real Madrid: Casillas, Adán, Mejías, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Coentrão, Arbeloa, Albiol, Varane, Kaká, Özil, Granero, Alonso, Altintop, Callejón, Lass, Cristiano Ronaldo, Higuaín and Benzema.

Good Luck.

YOU WAIT 15 YEARS FOR A CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ......

2012-01-22T16:00:00.004Z

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots were originally put up as a nine point favourite for this game which was too high and it has since been scaled down to a touchdown. The Patriots have benefitted from an "easy" home schedule IMO and the Giants ( 9-7) were the only team with a winning record they faced all season and they lost that one ! In the other games they gave up at least 21 points in all bar two, allowing the Cowboys 16 and only restricting the low scoring Chiefs ( ranked 31st for points scored). Now they meet the 12-4 Ravens and it is difficult for me not to see the visitors posting a decent total.

The Ravens have averaged 19.875 points on the road and in all starts against teams with a .500 + record, that total rises to 24.4, so you can argue that they perform better against the stronger teams.

We have seen playoff games become increasingly open and high scoring in recent times, rule changes are always made to the benefit of offense's and that has seen some big scores racked up. The last seven post season games last season averaged 52.28 points and 12 of the 14 teams scored 21 points plus. Last weekend the four games averaged 53.25

The two teams met here in the post season, two years ago, with Baltimore winning 33-14, that was nearly all earned on the ground, with 234 running yards, 159 from Ray Rice. They know that they can come to Foxborough in mid winter, move the ball, score points and win.

In that game, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was sacked three times and forced into throwing three interceptions. I think the Pats will be a little nervous early (they trailed 24-0 after just one quarter in that match up) ,will be focused on stopping the run and if the Ravens are brave enough to let Joe Flacco throw the ball early, there could be some cheap yardage up for grabs. The Pats defense has disappointed ranking 31st for total and passing yards given up, which is not what you expect to see from a potential Superbowl winner. They are unlikely to be able to stop Rice and that will leave them vunerable to the Ravens being able to mix things up at times. Given how freely the Pats have conceded to far worse teams than Baltimore and also the chance that this could also develop into a shoot out, I will take 1.25 units Ravens to score over 21.5 points 1.926 Pinnacle Sports/ Vegas Line..... this is under team totals on the main NFL page with Pinnacle, who appear to be doing their best to make it difficult to find odds !

Pinnacle offer 1.66 that Ray Rice scores a touchdown, that is way too short for me to get involved, but other companies affer as low as 1.17 and whilst that is wrong, the true price is probably closer to 1.45-1.50 , so the 1.66 offers value, if that is your kind of price.

Weather here in Foxborough cold, dry and sunny, with only very light winds, it is very different in San Francisco for the other Championship game where, heavy rain, maybe even thunderstorms and also high winds are forecast.... you wait 15 years for a Title game and with it comes a soaking !

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/01/21/3384340/afc-championship-preview-ravens.html#storylink=cpy

Good Luck.

ALLEN IN THE SPOTLIGHT ....

2012-01-21T08:44:00.004Z

LEAGUE 1 : NOTTS COUNTY - MK DONS

It is very hard not to see goals here, County have won just once in ten starts and conceded 21 goals in the process, with goals at both ends in nine of those. They are in midtable and in a situation where if they retain any lingering playoff dreams, a point is of absolutely no use, so they will surely have to go for it.

They might have one eye on their FA Cup fourth round tie next week, but this is the first of two league games before that and with home boss Martin Allen formerly in charge of Dons, this is probably the one he will be up for.

Allen is something of a "media whore" and will have been feeding on the extra attention that brings to the game, although he will also be looking at that win-able home tie with Stevenage as a route to the 5th round and an opportunity to raise the profile of both himself and his club on a national level, in a competition he loves. Anyway, pretty sure that will not overly change the way they approach today's fixture, but it might the midweek one !

Allen is missing five defenders for various reasons, so is short of options at the back and might have no option but to stick with their attack is the best form of defence policy, under the circumstances.

We saw how good Dons were in midweek at QPR and they really ought to have scored a couple, they have scored two or more in their last five starts on the road in the league , 15 in total at an average of three per game and will come looking for maximum points to keep the pressure on the top two. I think Dons will win but prefer to split my bet on two "over" bets, 1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.99 and 0.5 unit Dons "over" 2.5 goals 4.33 + there is 4.50 on offer. They have already scored three on the road seven times this year ( !) and also achieved that total in the reverse league fixture.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ....

2012-01-20T10:45:00.002Z

My daily notes today include a first preview of the African Cup of Nations, I do not wish to post them on here, but if any of you would like to receive a copy, just sent an email to stencelwade@btinternet.com , with the subject ACN before 22.00 UK time today ( I cannot send after this time) and I will forward it.

Good Luck.

URGENT....

2012-01-18T09:26:00.002Z

Please check your inbox, I have just posted my "Thursday" notes, with two confident picks @ odds of 5.0 and 2.06.

QPR found a way to win last night, but were very fortunate, MK Dons can at least move on and concentrate on their promotion bid. Having seen Dons and League 1 leaders Charlton Athletic both twice this season, it is very difficult to see the London club as the better team, think that current eleven point gap will be much closer come the end of the season.

The Bees appear to be close to signing a striker at last, but it is taking a long time to complete negotiations, my club never do things the easy way !

So much on at the moment, all the leagues back up and running, Australian Open Tennis, NFL playoffs, African Cup of Nations about to start, golf , test match cricket ( not for me) and whilst all this is going on, we need half an eye on the transfer window.... happy days !

Good Luck.

HUGHES LOOKING TO BOOK DERBY DATE WITH BLUES ....

2012-01-17T10:53:00.004Z

FA CUP : QPR- MK DONS

Quick turnaround for Rangers, who were in the North East at Newcastle on sunday and with top flight survival surely their main priority, I would normally be looking to oppose almost any EPL side under similar circumstances. However, this is Mark Hughes' home debut as boss and starting with a defeat to a third tier team, is not going to instantly endear him to supporters. Also, the reward for winning here is a money spinning, high profile game with neighbours Chelsea, a former club of Hughes, so I think he will have his troops "up" for this one. There was quite a bit to like about their performance at St James' Park and they had chances to at least claim a share of the points, perhaps there were a few too many sideways passes, but they will be more expansive on home turf this evening. Talking of which, the smaller pitch size at Loftus Road should also give the hosts an extra edge, with the visitors more comfortable on the bigger playing surface at Stadium MK.

The visitors also have other priorities, with promotion their main aim, they have already played two games fewer than their main rivals, if they win those, they will be withing a point of the automatic promotion places. However, they play away to Notts County, Stevenage (6th), Huddersfield (3rd) and leaders Charlton, plus at home to Sheffield Wednesday (4th), all in the next 28 days, do they really need another game into the mix AND fall three games back, even if it is a glamour tie with the Blues ?

There are still two divisions between these clubs and with home advantage and a new coach desperate to kick start his reign, the shade of odds on quotes, look perfectly acceptable. QPR -0.5 ball 1.90 + asian line.

Good Luck.

DAILY NOTES : UPDATED RESULTS

2012-01-16T09:52:00.003Z

January 1-8th inclusive :

Bets: 18 , Winners 10, Average Odds 2.19 , Stakes 21.5 units , Returns 27.85 units, ROI 129.53%.

January 9th-15th inclusive :

Bets 17, Winners 10, Average odds 2.106, Stakes 20 units, Returns 24.178 units, ROI 120.89%

I will update these every Monday or Tuesday and the blog results, every couple of months or so.

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM MY SUNDAY NOTES ...

2012-01-15T10:15:00.004Z

SUNDAY JANUARY 15TH

Huge amount to cover today, late football and NFL in the second email, which I will send at around 14.00 UK time.

Brentford were terrible yesterday, Walsall were even worse and it is going to be a very long season for them. Uwe Rosler, made some odd tactical decisions yesterday, playing Forrester wide was just one, leaving Logan out another and they appear to be coming onto the pitch on home soil, expecting to struggle. A poor pitch didn't help much either..... oh dear !

Overnight Charles Howell III shot a 66 and is in a tie for 3rd place at the Sony Open, so let's start there.

The leaderboard looks like this .....

-12 Maggert

-12 Every

-10 Wagner

-10 CH3

-10 de Jonge

-9 Points

-9 Waldorf

-8 eleven golfers including Stricker, Bradley and O'Hair

Maggert is 47 years old and has won just twice in 547 starts, he has not led on the final day for nine years, or played well for four !

Every has only played 30 events, never come close to leading , the first is always the hardest and he has posted only one top ten, I doubt he slept well last night.

Wagner has two wins, but is very inconsistent and is not a golfer I am keen on.

de Jonge has never won, he has posted the most birdies on tour in the last three years, but needed seven yesterday to shoot three under, which tells you all you need to know, as the bogeys flow almost as freely. He did shoot a 62 on Friday and that is probably how he will eventually win a tournament, going ultra low early in the day, but he was ranked 135th on tour for round 4 scoring last year.

Points won the Pebble Beach Pro Am event last year, but that was his only ever win, it came in an "odd" event and he has posted just one top ten in 25 starts since, so it hardly kick started his career.

Waldorf is even older than Maggert at 49, he has not won since 2000, or posted a top ten since 2006 !

Steve Stricker ground it out again yesterday, said he once again felt sluggish and "didn't hit the ball well", but it could all come together for him and let's be honest, there is not much to beat !

That leaves us with CH3, his all round stats were much better yesterday and he continues to putt pretty well. He was ranked 14th on tour for Round 4 scoring in 2011 and 10th the year before. On his last big finish here in 2010 he shot 64 on Sunday and that would probably be enough to see him home today. If you twisted my arm , I would have to nominate him as the most likely winner at circa 6.50, but he is far from a prolific winner and with our Top 10 bet ( see below and now available to LAY at long odds on), there is no real need to get involved. The Round 4 match bets do not appeal.

The Australian Open tennis starts overnight and we will be involved later in the tournament, no selections today, but a few words about the Laura Robson- Jelena Jankovic match. The 13th ranked Serbian always looks vunerable early and has performed increasingly poorly here since a semi final appearance in 2007, losing in Round 4, 3, and in her second match last year, the fifth time she has not gone beyond the second round in Melbourne. Robson was on crutches a month ago, but is young and recovers quickly, she took JJ very close in their only previous meeting at Wimbledon in 2010, when just 16 years old. Robson is 18 this coming week and is said to be looking very good this week both in practice and coming through qualifying, very good actually. She is british, but was born in Melbourne and is a two time finalist in the Junior event here, so very comfortable in the surrounds and on the surface. Robson is circa 6.0 to win, that looks big and this is a potential upset.

In the EPL, Newcastle United face QPR without Cheick Tiote and Demba Ba, who are both at the ACN. They did see off Blackburn Rovers reserves last week in the FA Cup without the pair, but they have been integral to the Magpies success and Ba has scored 52% of all their league goals this campaign.He missed one match previously, the 1-0 win at Sunderland, so they can win without him, but it is hard to see the goals flowing whilst he is away. The visitors have now slipped into the bottom three, so will be looking for the point to take them out and new boss Mark Hughes, who is expected to be very busy in the transfer window, will want to start with a positive result and we can also expect the new boss effect to kick in .Rangers have kept things pretty tight on recent road starts, with a 1-1 draw at Swansea and 1-0 defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool. They have gone with a defensive mindset in each and I am sure that is how Hughes will set his team out today, with avoiding defeat as a priority. An early goal could blow this open, but baring that, it is hard to see either scoring twice and I do think the draw offers a little value, but just prefer the "under" 2.25 goal option at 2.20, as this also covers the two lowest scoring draws. Hughes always had not losing as a priority at Manchester City and in a game where a point will be so valuable to his team, I am sure that will be his approach today.

Written Thursday January 12th

Now for a bet and at very juicy odds....

The PGA Tour moves onto Waialae, the venue of the Sony Open, it is usually windy here, but it is a fairly consistent, steady wind, however it is useful to be able to keep the ball low and once again, like last week, an ability to "scramble " also comes in handy. Step forward, Charles Howell III, the 32 yo from Augusta loves it here and has posted five top five finishes in ten starts, including a tie for second in 2007, He has a very low trajectory off the tee and has been ranked inside the top seven for scrambling on tour in each of the last two years. He posted six top ten's in his last 14 starts in 2011 and comes here for his traditional seasonal opener. CH3 claims to be coming off " his best ever off season preparation" and with no concerns about the US Masters, having already qualified to play, in what, for a son of Georgia, born and raised in Augusta, is a very big deal, he has no other golfing distractions. Interspersed between those high finishes here have a been a few low placings, like his 68th placing last year, but he has always bounced back with a very high finish the very next year and it is hard to see that not being the case this year. He is not a prolific winner, just twice on tour, way below the number he should have posted by now, but he is very consistent and I feel he will win a couple more in what should now be his peak golfing years, his game steadied after the birth of his first child in 2010, we have discussed how this makes a golfer more focused previously and it is clear to see how much more steady CH3 has been since then, the second arrived in October, so he should be doubly focused now ! Charles Howell III to finish top ten 3.25 + , there is up to 3.75 on offer if you shop around. Just a single stake, but I would increase that slightly if the top 3.75 quote is available to you.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .....

2012-01-14T09:57:00.003Z

Two previews below, the first was written and sent out early Friday morning, the second overnight. Brentford have been well backed in asia, but the preview might still be of interest to some.....

Going to start in League 1 and the Brentford- Walsall match. Let's take a look at the Bees last six starts, just one win and seven points ( four draws), they really should have collected twelve points in that sequence, during which they played very poorly at home to Bournemouth and in the first half to MK Dons, when they shipped three goals and it could have been more. On the road, they completely dominated Bury, Tranmere Rovers and Charlton Athletic and collected two points in the process, they have been all over the league leaders in both meetings this season and lost both times, with Athletic hardly registering an attempt on goal....... only the Bees could manage this ! This sequence of games is a microcosm of their season so far, results at Griffin Park have been terrible, perhaps just three good performances, on the road they are 5-5-2 and should probably have won nine ! As I have said several times recently they are a work in progress, but will improve in the second half of the campaign and I think this improvement has started. If they are to get into the playoff picture, they need to start winning at GP Towers and soon. They have played Charlton twice and also both Sheffield clubs, Notts County and Carlisle on the road, so in therory, their run in should be significantly easier.

They have been unfortunate with injuries, losing Logan and both starting central defenders, plus Harry Forrester, who was brought in to help them play a certain formation, for most of the season. They create a lot of chances, but Donaldson really needs a striker with a little pace to play alongside him, Alexander is strong and will score his share, but is slow and the Bees desperately need a third striker, or fourth if you count Grella. I am sure that the funds will be found, if the right man is available, this could probably be funded by the sale of Karleigh Osbourne, who is likely to be sold in the next week or two, KO had one fantastic season at the club and has a lot of potential, but he is not certain to make it at a higher level and there is plenty of cover for his position, with four players vying for two starting spots. Better that Brentford take the money now and use it to strengthen elsewhere.

Brentford took a lot of confidence from the comeback against Dons and the performance (despite the result) at Charlton. I have not watched highlights of the Tranmere game last week, but someone who's opinion I respect wrote "we were substantially better than Tranmere, and whilst we had a mare with conceding goals, we created chances and looked in control. We passed the ball well, the movement up front was very good, and on that performance, it is hard to understand how we underperform so badly at home ". "Second half, and other than the own goal from Dean, Tranmere rarely threatened, whilst we really piled on some pressure, with Clayton playing extremely well to bamboozle their defence. In my opinion, we lost because of the own goal, no other reason. The performance was a good one, and we clearly can dominate teams away from home, so if Uwe works it out at home, then we can really go places."

Logan should be back in the squad tomorrow, Forrester is fit and getting a run of games, but needs to find some consistency, despite the own goal at Rovers and the debacle in the opening 45 minutes to Dons the defence looks very solid and one day very soon, someone is going to be on the end of a hammering.

Walsall have won just two of 16 starts, one of those came in extra time and in the other, they were losing entering the 92nd minute( !) and hover just above the relegation zone, they have a lack of creativity in midfield and their forwards have managed the lowest shot accuracy percentage in the whole Football League. They are one of the poorest teams Brentford have faced so far and the players signed in the summer, do not look up to League 1 level and confidence from supporters and players alike appears shot. If the Bees can get in front early, they could get a confidence boosting big win and I take them to do just that. 1.5 units Brentford -0.5 ball 1.80 + .

Onto League 2, where I am going to stick with Accrington Stanley, whom we have discussed several times recently ( three are at the foot of this email), they entertain Barnet at the Crown Ground. The hosts are unbeaten in eleven starts and have won six of their last seven, scoring at least two in everyone of those victories and it is looking more and more like a mirror image of last season, something we picked up upon pretty early.

Confidence is sky high at the club, as you might expect and midfielder Luke Joyce, speaking on the club website echos that and feels his club match up well with the North London club. They beat them 3-1 here last April, just like they had in five of the last eight meetings, the reverse fixture back in September ended 0-0, but Stanley had the better of the chances, despite ending the match with nine men and playing for over 50 minutes with ten. They have strengthened their squad since I wrote the notes for the Burton game, signing Aristote Nsiala from Everton, he played 57 minutes in that game and also made 13 starts for Macclesfield last season on an earlier loan, so knows the division well. The return of talented and vastly experienced Ian Craney to action, he scored two goals in the Lancashire Cup in midweek, gives them further options and it is "all gravy" for Stanley at present.

Barnet have tended to save their best performances for the cup this season and are just 90 minutes away from a Wembley final after a 1-1 draw with Swindon Town in midweek. That hard fought JPT Area final is bound to have taken plenty out of them and it also came at a cost, with right back Danny Senda breaking his leg, they do not have a "natural" replacement for him and will have to reshuffle the backline a little to cover. Big, big game for Stanley, three points will take them right into the playoff picture and with some tough games on the horizon, this is as "easy" as it gets for a while. Accrington Stanley -0.75 ball 1.98 asian line.

Good Luck.

Written 06/01
I am keen on Accrington Stanley as a club ( they are incredibly well run on a tiny budget) and team in Division 2, we talked about them ahead of the trip to Morecambe ( see below) and again before they went to Hereford United ( also below). That second game was odd, United were backed off the board, for reasons that were not entirely clear, luckily we picked up on that early and were not officially involved, it ended 1-1, since when United have won 2-0 at, yes you guessed it ..... Burton Albion, whom Stanley face today, at the same time Accrington were putting four unanswered goals past Morecambe in the return fixture. That makes nine league games unbeaten and they have won five of their last six, scoring at the rate of 2.5 per game in that sequence, they have not been prolific winners ( 2-8-2) on the road, but are very tough to beat and improving week upon week. Burton created a lot of chances against the Bulls, but couldn't find the back of the net, that is very dangerous as they have been conceding far too freely at the other end of the pitch and allowed two or more in seven of their last eight starts, that included games against AFC Wimbledon ( who have lost seven in a row), basement club Northampton Town and Hereford ( twice), which is about as bad as it gets, from a defensive point of view. Stanley have a good record here, being unbeaten in five visits to the Pirelli Stadium and travel in very good spirits, Andy Proctor, who is Mr Accrington and epitomises everything that is right at the club, gave an interview on the club website and was oozing confidence, he noted that they were in a stronger position than at the same stage last season, said they had "nothing to fear in this division", talked about how "very solid they were with the new formation, which allows more goals from midfield" and also how the blistering pace of Micah Evans ( on loan from Blackburn Rovers), had given them an extra dimension.
Hosts are 6-4-2 at home and in the playoff places as I type, but do not look in the best of places at present and Stanley can close to within a point of them and the top seven with a win. Albion are very leaky as discussed and no team in the top 16, let alone the post season places has conceded more, hard to see the visitors not scoring at least one, problem is, I do not like the current asian quote of +0.5 ball 1.70, I really do not like quotes below 1.80 much at all and prefer to reduce my stakes and take the draw no bet/ level ball option at odds against ( 2.25/2.30) or the +0.25 ball at 1.95 + if that is an option to you.

DIVISION 2: HEREFORD UNITED - ACCRINGTON STANLEY ( 30/12)

Stanley were another team we discussed on Boxing Day, they won 2-1 at Morecambe recording a fourth straight victory for the first time since 2006. They were perhaps not at their best in that local derby game, but battled really well in very difficult conditions and the team spirit at the club is sky high at present, this was touched upon by hugely experienced midfielder Bryan Hughes who scored the winner, his second goal in as many games, after not scoring for three years ! He also added that "we don't fear anyone in this league,I think it's one of those games that people will forget but I think it's a massive win for us. We leapfrog Morecambe now and they've had a wonderful start to the season ,we have some momentum now and we just have to stay focused ."

A win at Hereford today would take them to within three points of the playoffs and they will fancy their chances facing a United side that have already lost eight home games and are only a point off the bottom of the table. They looked to be heading towards a rare win on home soil against Port Vale on Monday, leading 1-0 with just 12 minutes to play, but still found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Supporters of the home side are at a very low ebb, they feel the club budget has been wasted and they have a crop of young inexperienced players, some of whom are at the club only to get some experience and they lack any guidance or leadership on the pitch.In spite of which, I think I will leave this one, the odds seem just about right ,Stanley do not have the best record here and seem to lose their way halfway down the M6 motorway. Having said that, they are a team I want to keep on the right side of in early 2012, but a watching brief for me today.

Just as I was about to send this I saw that the Stanley odds have drifted out to 2.28 ( -0.25) from 1.96 overnight, that is increasingly tempting, but also a little worrying, as there is no real reason, at least team wise, a couple of knocks for Stanley and possible late tests, but all are expected to pass and another hugely experienced player in Ian Craney is now fit to join the squad..... pretty odd. I think I will stick with the original two selections.

LEAGUE 2 ..... MORECAMBE - ACCRINGTON STANLEY ( 26/12)

These two clubs look to be heading in opposite directions at the moment. hosts have not won in six and lost their last three, Stanley have won their last three with an 8-1 goal difference and after another slow start to their capaign, which was understandable as they lost half a team and arguably their five strongest players in the off season. I say "another" slow start as last year as we entered November, Stanley had posted only three wins and were languishing in 18th place, they only lost another four over the rest of the season, made it into the playoffs and only lost out on an automatic promotion spot because of a few too many draws. John Coleman has done a terrific job to get his club up and running again and once more he has found some classy, albeit relatively cheap , footballers who play the game in the right way and can produce results, they are not a side I would rush to oppose in the coming months. They have a good record in this fixture, are unbeaten in four visits ( winning three) and three have come in either Christmas or New Year games between the near neighbours. I take them to get another result. Accrington Stanley +0.25 1.86 asian line.

EXCERPT FROM TODAY'S NOTES .....

2012-01-11T10:26:00.003Z

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 11TH

Lots of interesting matches today and we also have a couple more tomorrow, along with some more golf action, when the PGA Tour moves to Honolulu, the venue for the Sony Open.

Straight into the action and lets start in the EPL. I would have been very keen on Everton at White Hart Lane, getting a full ball handicap start over Tottenham, but the absence of Phil Jagielka is a big concern. The Toffees are a very tight defensive unit, keeper Tim Howard has only made an average of one save per EPL start this season and it is 15 games since they lost by more than a single goal. They have a solid record in this fixture, losing on just two of six visits to North London and manager David Moyes has come out on the wrong side only three times in 15 h2h battles with Harry Redknapp.

However, Jagielka leads the team in total clearances, has attempted the most defensive tackles and won the most defensive headers, obviously he will be sorely missed and the Distin- Heitinga partnership whilst adequate, is not quite as solid. Actually, Distin has started in four of the five games in which Everton have conceded two or more goals.

Even though Spurs will be without both Ledley King and William Gallas from the centre of their defence, the loss of Jagielka and the very young visiting bench, is just enough for me to swerve this one. However, Everton ALWAYS come on strong in the second half of the season and they are already two points better off than at the same stage last season when they finished seventh, so don't totally rule them out of that "best of the rest" placing just yet. Let's see how they play tonight and what happens in the next week or so in the transfer window and then we can review the situation.

It is cup week in most of the other major european leagues and the Copa del Rey fixture between Sevilla- Valencia catches my attention. Los Che arrive with a 1-0 advantage from the first leg, they will be pleased to have kept a clean sheet in that and they will probably come looking for the goal that would then require the hosts to score three to advance. Sevilla have named a very strong squad tonight, adding Navas, Perotti and Varsas into the mix, one or more having missed recent starts and all look set to play. Hosts have a terrific record, both home and away in this match up, but at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán stadium, it is outstanding, they are 7-2-0 in the last nine meetings, also keeping six clean sheets. The visitors arrive on the back of a 2-2 draw at Villarreal, where they made a couple of very poor defensive errors and they are a little beat up, with only one available keeper and looking to nurse several key players back to fitness, coach Unai Emery is looking to get involved in the transfer market, but appears keen on progression in the competition. I have discussed their position in La Liga before, they look booked for third spot, almost regardless of what happens, but do at least have Europa League involvement to look forward to and with some very big clubs involved in that now, the competition is being viewed in a slightly more favourable light, for Sevilla, out of Europe and only one of possibly eight teams battling for that "remaining" top four place, this is a realistic chance to earn some silverware. I favour Sevilla, especially with Valencia "happy" to lose 2-1 or 3-2 and Emery indicating that his team will sit back if scoring. Jose Antonio Reyes will make his home debut tonight after returning to the club, he left in 2004 , that adds an extra flavour to the game and he will be welcomed home like a long lost son, motivated home team and crowd to edge this one and remember the late goals in Valencia games we discussed ahead of their match with Betis, they equalised in the 88th minute at Villarreal at the weekend and this could also see late action for those betting "in running". 1.5 units Sevilla -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

In France, the goals have tended to flow, at least by normal French standards in League Cup fixtures recently, especially in the latter stages of the competition, the last round saw six of the eight games go "over" with all averaging exactly 3.0 goals, last year these quarter finals also averaged 3.0 and last night the Caen- Marseille produced, yes, you guessed it, three goals. Looking at the games tonight, Olympique Lyon host Lille and despite what both might say .............. rest of the notes and two strong selections are not available on the blog.

Good luck.

TODAY'S NOTES IN FULL ..... WRITTEN 09.45 AM

2012-01-10T15:32:00.002Z

Since writing these notes early morning, Fleetwood have been backed in a quarter ball, but you might still find the preview of interest and as usual, there is content that might help you target a future winner in any case.

TUESDAY JANAUARY 10TH

Steve Striker won the Hyundai overnight, so obviously landed our Top 4 bet, looking at the Monday selections, Jonathan Byrd beat Striker to secure a small profit and there was money to be made on the Arsenal-Leeds United game if you followed the trading hint, with the Gunners securing a 13th win of the season by the minimum margin, courtesy of a late Thierry Henry goal.

Going to start today in the Conference National and the match between Fleetwood town and AFC Barrow. We have covered Fleet many times in recent seasons, most recently on New Year's Day ( see below) and they have rarely let us down, they put six unanswered goals past Southport on that day, but were themselves on the wrong end of a "beating", losing their third round cup tie to local rivals Blackpool 5-1 on saturday. However, there was a big difference between the two defeated teams and there were a lot of positives for Town to take out of their defeat, the first half was very even, but the visitors were very clinical in front of goal and rememebr, they were in the EPL last season, whereas Fleet were in the tenth ( !) tier of english football just 12 seasons ago and have a favourite's chance of playing in the Football League next season.

This is all down to their financial clout and despite lying in second and with a huge squad, which I touched upon in the earlier post, they have already started to invest most of the money from the FA Cup campaign, yesterday they added influential midfieder Lee Fowler from league leaders Wrexham, the 12 times Wales U21 International is hugely experienced and will slot into what is now the best midfield unit in the division. They are also said to be adding Andre Bouchard from York City, these two clubs are probably two of the only three real rivals to Fleetwood for the automatic promotion spot and to sign key players from direct rivals at this stage of the campaign is virtually unheard of, but when Town go after a player they get him and are clearly going to spend whatever is needed to secure that FL place. I also heard that they turned down a circa £1m offer for Jamie Vardy last week, in the current climate, what other non league club would refuse a bid like that ? Or in any climate for that matter !

They will be looking to bounce back today, although to be honest, there is not much to bounce back from and three points would take them to the top of the table. They will also have a little revenge on their minds, Fleet have lost only three games this season and all came early season ( they are unbeaten in three months), including a 4-0 loss in the reverse fixture. That match was lost in the opening 45 minutes and was a big wake up call to Town, who had not conceded a league goal before that debacle.

Barrow arrive in a comfortable midtable position, but have been helped by a nice run of fixtures, they have a tough sequence of games on the horizon starting today and they are very much a "home" team, Holker Street is a tough and at times, intimidating venue and they have posted nine wins there ( only Wrexham have more), but just three on their travels, losing eight. They are short of numbers and whilst they can put out a starting eleven the bench has been thin to say the least recently, on saturday it included three defenders ( one of whom is playing out his contract and unhappy and another with little first tean experience) and also a 43 year old ! They have had to release a couple of key players and are looking to replace them, I understand that they signed a youngster from Burnley yesterday, this has not been officially confirmed, but it pales alongside the transfer news from Fleetwood and the hosts should win this with a degree of comfort. Fleetwood Town -1 ball 2.0 asian line.

Elsewhere I am keen on Yeovil Town making the tough trip to Sheffield United getting a huge handicap start. The Glovers are in the drop zone, but incredibly have not lost on the road in over three months, that is eight matches in all competitions and they have not been behind at any stage in the last five. Their home form has been poor of course, this happens sometimes ( Brentford !) and teams play better away from the pressure of their own stadium. Anyhow, this has led to a managerial change, with Gary Johnson returning to the club and former boss Terry Skiverton moving down to the number two position, it is a sign of the respect that Johnson has at the club that Skiverton would agree to that, the pair have worked together for many years previously and I feel that this switch might just keep Town in the third tier. This was only announced yesterday, but was I understand agreed last week and the pair have already been making plans and looking to bring back the success they enjoyed previously at Huish Park ( two championships in three seasons). They have been busy this week extending the loan of Tottenham striker Jonathan Obika until the end of the season and signing Ryan Dickson (pictured above, albeit not in the "classic" Bees shirt) on an initial one month deal from Southampton, this is exceptional business. Dickson is a player I know very well, despite things not working out for him so far at St Mary's he is without doubt one of the top left backs in lower league football and it is a real coup to get him. Town have had a week to rest since their last game and will travel fresh and keen to mark the return of Johnson with a positive result, United are very strong at home, but rarely thump anyone and have developed a potentially nasty habit of conceding too freely at home (15 in their last 12 starts) and that is going to catch them out sooner or later. I would not be surprised to see the points shared and have seen 26.0 quoted for a 2-2 draw and might "throw away" a couple of euros on that, or on the 5.0 for Town to score two or more, something they have done in three of their last six road starts, but let's keep things simple .... Yeovil Town +1.25 ball 2.03 asian line.

Good Luck.

CONFERENCE NATIONAL :

SOUTHPORT - FLEETWOOD TOWN ( written 01/01)

These are the return fixtures of matches played on Boxing Day. These two played out an incident packed 2-2 draw at Highbury Stadium, where Town forced a late equaliser courtesy of the prolific Richard Brodie, despite playing 35 minutes with ten men, after Jamie McGuire was sent off, he is suspended for today's fixture. That would be a significant loss for most teams, but Fleet are a very well financed club and have an incredible 33 registered players, including former Manchester United player Danny Rose, who signed earlier this week, choosing Town ahead of Crystal Palace who were very interested in him, Rose goes straight into the squad and is a direct replacement for McGuire. Back in their BSS days we talked about Fleetwood and how they had funds that other clubs could only dream about, planning a £5m stadium upgrade and £250k on improving the playing surface, to say nothing on the investment in players. They have a dream FA Cup tie against Blackpool next week, who are the nearest "big" club and the one manager Micky Mellon made his name as a player at, so that will be a distraction of sorts and enough for me to scale down my stakes slightly, but it is promotion to the Football League that is the target this season and to those ends, this game is MASSIVE. Three points would keep them, at worse, within two of leaders Wrexham and effectively take Southport and the rest of the chasing pack out of the equation ( 9 points and a game in hand), at least for the time being.

Town missed out on promotion in the playoffs last season, losing to AFC Wimbledon in the semi-finals and are, as you might expect, keen to avoid that lottery this time round. They are more comfortable on the road, having already posted ten wins away from Highbury, in addition to a second round FA Cup win at League 1 side Yeovil Town and have actually won 9 of their last ten ( one draw) away starts in the Conference. In all league starts, home and away, they have averaged 2.5 goals per game and it is hardly surprising given their financial clout, as they can attract players like Brodie for whom they paid a significant five figure sum, just to take on a season long loan deal. Most of the others have either huge Football League experience or know how to get out of the Conference and all that knowledge makes for a very well balanced squad, which should go close to claiming the title. They are also full time and especially at this time of year, that gives them an advantage over part time squads like Southport, who were forced to fit in a Thursday night training session, the only time the players met inbetween the two matches. Fleetwood dominated the second half on Monday even with ten men and I expect them to come out on top today. 1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line.

RESULTS .......

2012-01-10T15:20:00.002Z

I am going to post the results from my daily notes on the blog on a weekly basis this year. This is mainly for my own benefit, but all of you that have registered for the occasional "freebie" email, will get one or two copies per month, so it at least has some relevance.

Anyway, January 1-8th inclusive :

Bets: 18 , Winners 10, Average Odds 2.19 , Stakes 21.5 units , Returns 27.85 units, ROI 129.53%.

I will update these every Monday or Tuesday and the blog results, every couple of months or so.

Back shortly .

TAKEN FROM SUNDAY'S NOTES ....

2012-01-08T11:41:00.006Z

Looking to end on a higher note and take something positive into today, so despite not planning to cover the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, I can at least report that Steven Stricker ( see below) leads by five shots, after tearing up the course with a 63, there are only eight players within ten strokes of him and with Stricker ranked number one for Round 3 scoring last year on tour and third in 2009, it is very hard to see him blowing up big time today.

Kevin Na shot the second best score of the day and beat Martin Laird, whom he is paired with today, by six shots, Pinnacle Sports make the Korean born Na 2.12 ( with the tie no bet) to repeat that win over the Scot and that at least was tempting enough to make me take a quick look at the match up. Obviously, quite a lot went right for Na yesterday, it has to if you are going to shoot nine under par, meanwhile Laird lost a ball and also missed a couple of very short putts, he hits the ball a country mile, but is not my favourite golfer and his all round stats over the first two days, especially in the key categories we discussed on Thursday have been poor. Laird was an eyecatching 2nd on Tour for 3rd round scoring last year, but outside the top 100 in the two previous seasons, in this category Na has improved year upon year ( 52-25-18) and is very solid. Because of the nature of the leaderboard and short field, the tournament will have something of a feel of a final day today, especially being played on a sunday, so I also looked at the "in contention" final round stats and this is where Na has a big edge, he has improved his position 100% of the time starting in the final five, Laird is just 33% from the same number of starts. It is hard to go low two days in a row, but at the odds offered I would just about side with Na, but no bet for me.

Elsewhere, In Serie A, the always interesting Atalanta - Milan fixture catches my eye. Hosts remain unbeaten in Bergamo with a 4-4-0 record , in fact they have lost just once at home in over 13 months and that a meaningless fixture when promotion had already been assured last season, they come into this game unbeaten in seven starts and without their six point deduction they would have entered the weekend in 5th place and boast a good record in this fixture, losing just one of four here in the league and three of ten in all competitions. The squad enter the game in reasonably healthy condition and the only real decision is who will replace Daniele Capelli in the heart of the defence, he will miss the rest of the season. Milan coach Massimiliano Allegri will be without the services of the banned Massimo Ambrosini, as well as injured quartet Ignazio Abate, Mathieu Flamini, Mario Yepes and Antonio Cassano. They have spent most of this week in Dubai, where they met PSG, so that might liven them up a little, they were very lacklustre after the Christmas break last season, finding a very late winner at Cagliari, losing entering injury time and conceding four at home to Udinese and drawing with Lecce. That especially applies to Zlatan Ibrahimovic who has a reputation of peaking early season and "losing interest" in the second half of the campaign. Without the very important Abate and protection offered by Ambrosini, the visiting backline look vunerable and top Serie A marksman German Denis will be looking to add to his tally. I do not feel that Milan will few a point here as two dropped and with one eye on the Milan derby next week, will be very wary of picking up any more injuries, especially to their backline. I definitely expect Atalanta to score, especially if Antonini starts, as seems likely and take these two to share the spoils. Atalanata + 0.75 ball 1.89 asian line.

Two NFL Wildcard games to discuss. Perhaps the most interesting of all the games this weekend is the Pittsburgh Steelers - Denver Broncos match up. Steelers are the defending AFC champions and with regard to the post season, have been here and done it all many times before, the Broncos stumbled over the finishing line, losing their last three starts and are only here because they are in a very weak division and other teams, especially the Raiders, also failed to get the job done.

Steelers are definitely favourites, but travel West asked to give up 9 points and in what seems sure to be a big defensive battle, with the NFL’s top ranked rushing attack (Denver) facing the league’s number one overall defense, that does seem to be on the big side.

Pittsburgh lost running back Rashard Mendenhall for the season last week and that is a big loss as it will put increased pressure on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and his injured ankle, unless replacement Issac Redman can step up and that is in question after he came into the game last week and ran for 92 yards, but also fumbled the ball twice. They will have no option but to give him the ball, just to keep the Broncos honest, but will mainly be throwing to their outstanding receivers, this is a fine balancing act between winning the game and keeping Roethlisberger injury free for the rest of the post season.

Broncos do not throw the ball much at all, they lead the league in rushing yards and will be looking to establish this early and will only take limited risks through the air. Their operate more of a college style offense and whilst qb Tim Tebow has "an arm", it can go anywhere, however, he is mobile and can run the ball, which is not an option at present for his Steelers counterpart. They dare not go behind early by more than a touchdown, playing catch up is not their style and they do not have the personnel to do so. Defensively they will look to get to BR, they have a top ranked crop of linebackers and Dumervil and Miller alone have 21 sacks between them. Hosts have a big advantage with the noisy crowd at Sports Authority Field at Mile High and it is important that the Broncos keep the fans involved, this is all about how the opening quarter plays out IMO, if Denver can keep things tight early and run down the clock, the 9 point advantage will look big, but if they fall a touchdown or more behind and are forced to throw, the turnovers will follow and the Steelers could run up a big number. One to watch, savour and maybe play "in running".

I was very big on ....................

Good Luck.

update ....

2012-01-07T16:47:00.002Z

Not Chesterfield's day and definitely not mine !

Chesterfield started slowly and were forced to an early change when Westcarr went off injured, they worked their way back into the game and were awarded a penalty with 17 minutes to play with the score still 0-0, Whitaker who had apparently converted 14 in a row ( !) had his attempt saved, five minutes later they were a goal down .

Football League matches had seen 77% of all penalties scored this season before today, worst conversion rate was in the EPL ( 68%), best in League 2 ( 84%), not sure if that says more about the quality of keepers, or the pressure in the top flight, but feel like I have been on the wrong end of most of the misses !

Personally, I made one good move today, flat stakes and only three selections !

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM SATURDAY'S NOTES .....

2012-01-07T10:12:00.003Z

SATURDAY JANUARY 7TH

The ten hour time difference between Hawaii and London is a bit of a killer with regard to following the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, but it was nice to find Steve Striker ( see below) in a share of second place this morning, he shot a five under par 68, just one stroke behind Jonathan Byrd and he has taken an early five shot + advantage over several players ( Watson, Watney and Woodland to name three) who were well fancied pre tournament.Lucas Glover did not start by the way, leaving us with a 27 man field. I have just watched some brief highlights and Stricker really hit some nice iron shots late in his round and looked comfortable in the wind.This event ends on Monday, so I will put it on the back burner until then, when I will take a look at the usually profitable, last day's play.

I have three flat stake football bets for today, to be honest, it is not the most interesting day of the season IMO and the Las Vegas oddsmakers and I agree ( for once) on the points spread for today's Wildcard games in the NFL, however, that is definitely not the case tomorrow, when I have a very solid pick, along with a FAR more exciting day on the football front and much as I love the NFL, when I say football, it is always the beautiful game and the round ball I am talking about !

In Division 1 ,Chesterfield have a massive game when they entertain Exeter City, the Spirites are at the foot of the table, six points from safely and the club currently sitting in that 20th spot in the table which is Nirvana for the teams in the drop zone, is City. The hosts have upped their game recently, without getting their just reward, they lost by the odd goal in five at Wycombe after leading twice and had chances to win drawn starts against Scunthorpe, Walsall and Oldham, again leading in two. Time is running out for them and they have two road games up next, defensively they look to have at least steadied the ship and are not shipping goals at the same rate they were earlier in the campaign and this is a side with goals in them, only Scunthorpe in the bottom ten have scored more and with regard to attempts on goal, they are 9th in the table, averaging over 2.5 per game more than City. They claim to have been "mentally stronger" in their last two games and this is absolutely vital, once teams lose confidence, it is incredibly hard to turn things around. The board have promised funds to strengthen and Liam Ridehalgh has joined this week from Huddersfield, via Swindon, the Robins were keen to keep him ( more of that later), but his parent club wanted him to play third tier football, he is a young player with potential whom Chesterfield tried to sign in the summer. This will further solidify the back line and surely boss John Sheridan will go for it today and play two up front, he has the prolific Jack Lester ( a goal every two games at the club) backfrom suspension today and he should return alongside the promising Jordan Bowery, Drew Talbot has been creating a lot of chances from the right and now in Lester, they have the right man to make the most of them. Chesterfield -0.5 ball 2.25 general quote.

Into the FA Cup 3rd round games and first up is the match between .................

THURSDAY JANUARY 4TH

No football for me today, but I do have a confident selection, next email will be sent on Friday morning.

The USPGA Tour gets underway today, with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, at the Kapalua Plantation course on the North West coast of Maui. This, as the name might suggest, is for all 2011 Tour winners, 39 were eligible, but only 28 have entered, due to a variety of reasons, some better than others and only Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson of the top ten ranked players in the world are taking part.

It is Mr Stricker that I am interested in, he is a traditionally fast starter and prolific winner. He has finished top four on his seasonal debut in four of the last five years, including a 4th here last Janauary and second place finish in 2008, the only blip in that five year sequence was in 2010, when he was tenth here after a very poor start, he then finished third and first in his next two outings. He shot an opening round par score of 73 that year, basically giving up four strokes to the field and shot a very nice 66 on Sunday, in 2008 he also started slowly but finished like a train, with a 64 in Round 4. Last year he put things right in Round 1 and yes, you have guess it, slipped off the pace on Sunday with a 71, a 66 or better would have been enough for victory and he must feel that was a Tour win that got away. Time for him to put the fours rounds all together, on a course that clearly suits him.

The wide open and long fairways suit long hitters and Steve hit a 424 yard drive here in 2010, but key stats on these huge greens are scrambling ( last eight winners were all ranked within the top ten) and strokes gained putting ( seven of the last eight winners all ranked either first or second). Stricker was ranked second on tour for scrambling last year and inside the top 14 in each of the last four seasons, he was also second on Tour for strokes gained and he clearly ticks all the right boxes.

The injury concerns he had in November were put to bed, with a comfortable singles win in the Presidents Cup and a solid showing at the Franklin Templeton event in December, he has been practicing a lot in Arizona with Aaron Baddeley and Bubba Watson in the build up to this and looks primed to go well. He is favourite at circa 9.2 on the exchanges, but this is very much a reduced field and he is the highest ranked golfer on display and an eleven time winner on Tour, seven coming in the last three years alone and nine of them in the first half of the golfing year. Good course and stat form, a proven winner, who hits the ground running, hard to pick any holes in his chances. I am going to take 1.5 units on him to record another top 4 start to the season, this is on offer at circa 2.50 + pretty much across the board and for four figure liquidity at 2.80 + on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

IT'S A FUNNY OLD GAME !

2012-01-04T10:09:00.005Z

We are only four days into the New Year, but already variance has raised it's ugly head with regard to blog readers.

My daily notes, all reproduced below, have included seven selections ( Hayes-Ebbsfleet was abandoned) and six have won, the only loser was the Bradford City selection, which was the only one posted on the blog ! I also wrote a decent preview ( no seletion)of the Real Madrid match yesterday.

This was the problem I tried to explain in previous posts, most recently on December 29th, there is a big difference between my notes which are written every day of the week and the occasional post on here. Having said that, I will try again and post something on here over the weekend.

Bristol City -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line. WON 1-0

Wigan-Sunderland "Over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line. WON 1-4

Blackburn Rovers- Stoke City 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line. WON 2-1

Doncaster Rovers -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line. WON 2-0

1.5 units Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line. LOST

1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line WON 6-0

1.5 units Hayes & Yeading- Ebbsfleet United "over" 2.75 goals 1.85 asian line.VOID

1.5 units New York -3 points 1.95 Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Line. WON 31-14

By the way, Bradford were a "little" unlucky, having had the better of the first half, they then conceded three in eleven minutes, two via goalkeeping errors ( one was a real howler) and another a hotly disputed ( but then they always are !) penalty.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY #3

2012-01-04T10:08:00.001Z

TUESDAY JANUARY 3RD

It looked for long time that we were going to go three from three yesterday, Bradford City had the better of the first half, but conceded three in eleven minutes midway through the second, two were errors from the goalkeeper and one a wrongly awarded penalty.

Not a lot of matches today, but all very interesting.

Going to start with a few words about the Copa del Rey fixture between Real Madrid and Malaga, both clubs have named their strongest available squads for this first leg, with the return match scheduled for the middle of next week. Hosts had not taken this competition seriously in recent seasons, twice losing to lower league opposition, but last year made it to the final, where they defeated Barcelona. This time round, they are looking for the La Liga/ Champions League double and I suspect the domestic cup competition will once again take a back seat, that is not to say that they cannot win, just that later in the campaign it is going to be more of an inconvenience. Today, I guess it will be viewed as a nice warm up for the weekend league fixture.

Real have tended to start slowly after the mini mid winter break, easing past Getafe by the odd goal in five and losing a meaningless match at Levante 2-0 last season and drawing 0-0 at Osasuna in 2010, when they were already out of the cup. Big spending Malaga will probably be up for this, especially RVN returning to the Bernabeu ( he will be pleased to see that Carvalho is missing) and Santi Carzorla looking to retain his place in the national team and this is a great opportunity to impress Vicente del Bosque. If this game was in Malaga, I would be very keen to side with Los Boquerones and even in the capital, admit to being tempted by the huge looking 2.5 goal handicap start for the visitors. A few too many unknown factors here, think I will watch the opening exchanges and if Real look a little lethargic, I will take a little on Malaga, if forced to choose now, it would have to be them at odds against ( 2.08) getting 2.5 goals, they tend to find a goal on their travels and that would leave Real needing at least four to cover, which normally would not be too much of a problem, but they might need this outing to shake the Christmas cobwebs away.

MALAGA
Goalkeepers: Caballero, Ruben
Defenders: Jesus Gamez, Demichelis, Mathijsen, Monreal, Eliseu, Sergio Sanchez
Midfielders: Camacho, Toulalan, Apoño, Cazorla, Isco, Duda, Buonanotte
Forwards: Van Nistelrooy, Sebastian Fernandez, Rondon, Juanmi

REAL MADRID

Goalkeepers: Casillas, Adan, Mejias

Defenders: Arbeloa, Coentrao, Marcelo, Pepe, Varane, Albiol

Midfielders: Lass, Khedira, Granero, Sahin, Xabi Alonso, Ozil, Callejon, Altintop, Kaka
Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuain

In the EPL, WBA have a lot of problems today, but that has already been factored into the very low odds for Tottenham, so no bet there for us.

I am keen on goals in the Wigan-Sunderland match. Somehow the makeshift Sunderland rearguard held on against Manchester City, they only had one regular starting defender on the pitch at the end and were forced to work incredibly hard to keep pace with the league leaders who created 25 attempts on goal and battered the Black Cats in the second period. That must have left them drained and the 24 hours less recovery time, will have done them few favours with this quick turnaround between matches, Wigan having played a day earlier at Stoke City where they somehow found a late equaliser despite being down to ten men, with defender Gary Caldwell being sent off and he is suspended today. Wigan are looking to do the double, having won very fortunately at the Stadium of Light in November, three points would take them out of the drop zone, ahead of a visit from Manchester City, so would be very valuable. The visitors will be out for revenge and incredibly a win for them could take them into the top ten, if they had not found that late, late winner at home to Blackburn Rovers in Martin O'Neill's first game in charge they would have been in the drop zone and the turnaround in just 23 days has been remarkable. Wigan are very gung-ho at times , especially at the DW Stadium and there will be plenty of space for both to exploit and plenty of tired legs late in the game, when this will get very stretched. "Over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line.

In the Championship, I like Bristol City at home to Millwall, key here for me is Darius Henderson missing from the visiting line up, the Lions have won six matches this season and Henderson has scored in five of those, he is very much their main target man, so much play goes through him and it all breaks down in his absence. We discussed City's huge improvement under Derek McInnes earlier in his reign ( see below). That improvement continues and they recently ended Southampton's long unbeaten home run, they won at the New Den in the next match after the Burnley preview ( where they also won 3-1) and have continued to play well, without getting their due reward at times. This might be the last time we see Maynard and Adomah together at City and they will surely want to sign off with a win, hosts have had 24 hours longer recovery time, following that Friday night game at St Mary's. Wall arrive in low confidence after a saturday derby loss to Crystal Palace and without their big target man , I have to oppose them. Bristol City -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line.

Good Luck.

BRISTOL CITY - BURNLEY ( NOV 5th)

I was very impressed with the Robins performance at West Ham in midweek and travelling fans were buoyant with that and the display at Barnsley last weekend, now they really need one in front of their home supporters, especially ahead of the international break, which will be followed by a tough trip to Millwall and visit from leaders Southampton. If new boss Derek McInnes can go into the break with another win, it will give them three positive results to feed off for a fortnight and the juggernaut will be well and truly on the move .

I told you on wednesday about the Albert Adomah and Nicky Maynard partnership and this pair will give most Championship defences problems and should definitely be up to scoring against a Burnley side with just one clean sheet in 18 starts this season, which came against a Millwall side in freefall at that time. Defensively, City already look a different side under their scottish boss and he has been busy today, signing Stephen Pearson, a midfielder he knows well from their time in the SPL from Derby County. He has also named his own assistant, Gary Owers replacing Steve Wigley and allowed two other players to leave on loan, he has made a huge impact at the club in a very short space of time. The team have already made more sound tactical changes in two games than Millen made in his last two months and even the fringe players have upped their game, with a strong reverse side running in five against Southampton this midweek, increasing competition for places.Bristol City level ball 1.94 + asian line

WEDNESDAY #2

2012-01-04T10:07:00.001Z

MONDAY JANUARY 2ND

Three selections today and I am going to keep comments fairly brief.

I was interested in Plymouth Argyle, who did us a favour at Aldershot Town ( perhaps a little fortunately) on Saturday, but the combination of long trip over the weekend and poor asian quote, or at least one I am not keen on ( +0.25 ball 1.72), is enough to make me swerve this one, having said that, if there is some 1.90 + available to you off level ball against Torquay United, then that would be far more appealing.

In the EPL, we have done well recently with Blackburn Rovers and they will surely be looking to follow up their amazing win at Old Trafford, with three points on home soil, but we can still not trust them defensively, they have conceded two or more in eight of their last nine starts and the other was at Anfield, where they could have allowed any number if Liverpool had been more ruthless and goodness knows how many this number would have been if Chris Samba had not been available, I have lost count of the number of times he has made last ditch blocks recently. He is being chased by several of the very top clubs and there is always the concern that injury will be at the back of his mind today, with the transfer window now open. Stoke City have been a little better on their travels this season, but still lost 13 EPL starts on the road in 2011, however, they have a solid record here and Samba will be working overtime from long balls into the box, both will almost certainly score IMO and "over" at odds against is far too tempting for me to avoid. 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 2.02 asian line.

Onto the Championship and the Yorkshire derby game between Doncaster Rovers and Barnsley , hosts are still bottom of the table, but recent performaces have been so much better than results might suggest and they could easily have got something from road trips to Burnley and Watford both of which they lost by three goals ! They are certainly stronger at the Keepmoat, as wins over Leicester city and Southampton indicate, they lose Goulon after his red card, but have a natural replacement in Stock returning from suspension.They are very strong in the centre of the pitch and with Barnsley missing the hugely influential Butterfield, Drinkwater and Addison, this gives them a huge advantage in midfield for this game. The visitors are coming off a huge 4-1 defeat of Leeds, but United are really struggling and the Tykes always up their game against them. Dean Saunders has brought some classy individuals into the Rovers squad, almost all proven at a much higher level and really used his many contacts in the game. They have reduced ticket prices today and are hoping for a big crowd to take them off the foot of the table.Doncaster Rovers -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line.

I have been monitoring Phil Parkinson at Bradford City, after being flavour of the month a couple of seasons back, Parky has slipped back down the managerial ladder and this is probably his last big club and City are a "big" club at this level, unless he has some success. He has gone back to basics and is looking to build a big strong team at City, much like his Colchester United team of giants, based around a huge defence. Slowly things have come together and they have won three straight, with a 7-1 goal difference, which included defeats of Southend and Shrewsbury, two of the better teams in the division. The only goal conceded in that sequence, came when they were three up and reduced to ten men on saturday, following David Syers dismissal, but they are appealing that and he is available today, they have also signed another big solid defender in Charlie Taylor from Leeds, who I understand is well thought of and poses a big offensive threat too, as a good crosser of the ball. He will get plenty of experience alongside players of the quality of Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke city, who is way too good for this level. I read this about City from a scepical source last week " This powerful no nonsense defensive unit with attitude is already having a beneficial impact on the rest of the team.There will be no lazy passengers playing in this team." that Parkinson has chosen to further strengthen his rearguard is eyecatching under those circumstances and they are a side to follow in early 2012. Hosts Rotherham are struggling and boss Andy Scott is not popular with supporters, personality wise Scott is a bit of a cold fish and fans simply do not warm to him, this does him few favours when things start to go wrong. They will be without keeper Conrad Logan today who has gone back to Leicester and his 35 yo replacement has not played in three months, two other key defenders are out ( Branston cannot play against his parent club) and I have to take the visitors, plus the draw. 1.5 units Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY # 1

2012-01-04T10:06:00.001Z

JANUARY 1ST 2012

Three match previews to start the New Year, two afternoon kickoffs in the Conference and the late NFL game, the very last of the regular season.

I am keen on all three bets and all were close to being maximum stake selections. Next email will be at the usual time on Monday, when we have an almost full round of Football League and five EPL matches to enjoy.

CONFERENCE NATIONAL :

SOUTHPORT - FLEETWOOD TOWN

HAYES & YEADING - EBBSFLEET UNITED

I have just watched 20 minutes of extended highlights from the first meeting, which Fleet won 3-1, that was perhaps a little harsh on Hayes IMO, who created chances of their own, especially in the first hour when the game was still in the balance. They had a lot of joy down both flanks and the wide players were able to cut inside with some ease, number 10 Luke Williams, whom I had not seen before, is apparently attracting scouts on a regular basis and it was easy to see why, as he ran United ragged at times. With the FL transfer window opening again this week, I am sure that he will be out to impress today. To be honest, both defences were pretty dire and more like BSS standard ( on a poor day !) and it is difficult to see either keeping a cleansheet anytime soon and with the last three h2h meetings all producing at least four goals and Hayes last ten starts averaging 4.2 per game, with 8 going "over" and Ebbsfleet's last 10 averaging 3.7 and 6 from 8 "over", I have to take this to follow suit. A point a piece is not really going to help either too much, especially the home side, who would probably remain in the drop zone with a draw and who then start the New Year with two road fixtures. I take this one to carry on in a similar vein to Boxing Day, first goal will blow this wide open and it will not be long in coming . 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.85 asian line.

NFL : DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

This is a playoff game in everything in name, as the winner will take the NFC East title and the loser eliminated from the post season picture. With the title will come a home playoff game against either Detroit or Atlanta and that is a very win-able match up, so a huge incentive to win this. The pair met in Dallas three weeks ago, the Cowboys held a 34-22 with a little over three minutes remaining, but Eli Manning led the Giants to two touchdowns and a famous 37-34 win. Both Manning ( 400 yards) and his counterpart Tony Romo ( 321 yards and four touchdowns) had massive days in that earlier meeting, both seem likely to face each other again tonight, but Romo has been touch and go all week, after badly bruising his hand last week and he definitely would not have been risked if this was a "normal" regular season game. Advantage number one to the Giants.

The second is the momentum they took from that win in Texas and they are definitely the mentally tougher of the two teams IMO, I could not see the Cowboys mounting a similar comeback here in New Jersey. The Giants defense was a little beat up ahead of that game two and was without key safety Kenny Phillips, a situation that Romo was able to exploit, now with Phillips back and he has an interception in each of the last two weeks and Romo's limited arm, it is another big swing in the Giants favour and advantage number three.

They are further boosted by the likely return of Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora, he has trained this week after missing the last month and with the Cowboys offensive line being forced into changes, everything appears to be going New York's way. Big chink in their armoury has been an inability to run the ball much, but in Dallas, Brandon Jacobs ran for 101 yards and two touchdowns, so even that is a positive and will keep the Cowboys "honest" and not just watching Manning and his team of receivers. I just cannot see beyond the Giants here. 1.5 units New York -3 points 1.95 Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY ......WATCHING PARKY ....

2012-01-02T10:54:00.005Z

I have been monitoring Phil Parkinson at Bradford City recently, after being flavour of the month a couple of seasons back, Parky has slipped back down the managerial ladder and this is probably his last big club and City are a "big" club at this level, unless he has some success. He has gone back to basics and is looking to build a big strong team at City, much like his Colchester United team of giants, based around a huge defence. Slowly and bit by bit things have started to come together and they have won three straight, with a 7-1 goal difference, which included defeats of Southend and Shrewsbury, two of the better teams in the division. The only goal conceded in that sequence, came when they were three up and reduced to ten men on saturday, following David Syers dismissal, but they are appealing that and he is available today, they have also signed another big solid defender in Charlie Taylor from Leeds, whom I understand is well thought of and poses a big offensive threat too, as a good crosser of the ball. He will get plenty of experience alongside players of the quality of Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke city, who is way too good for this level. I read this about City from a fairly scepical source last week " This powerful no nonsense defensive unit with attitude is already having a beneficial impact on the rest of the team.There will be no lazy passengers playing in this team." that Parkinson has chosen to further strengthen his rearguard is eyecatching under the circumstances and they are a side to follow in early 2012. Hosts Rotherham are struggling and boss Andy Scott is not popular with supporters, personality wise Scott is a bit of a cold fish and fans simply do not warm to him, this does him few favours when things start to go wrong. They will be without keeper Conrad Logan today who has gone back to Leicester and his 35 yo replacement has not played in three months, two other key defenders are out ( Branston cannot play against his parent club) and I have to take the visitors, plus the draw. Bradford City +0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

GREAT EXPECTATIONS ...... WITH LONG TERM BETS

2011-12-29T13:47:00.004Z

A fairly quiet day on the sporting front today, but I did discuss two long term events in my daily notes , one of which can be read lower down the page. I have also found a fantastic maximum stake bet at odds of 6.0 which I believe offers fantastic value. I have a good record with these big odds "maximum" stake bets, the only four decided in the second half of 2011 produced winners at odds of 9.0, 4.50 and 6.0 , with one loser.

Updated blog stats :

Number of posts: 3,802 , Page views: over 1.1 million hits, Original content : circa 15 million words ( about 17 average novels !)

2006 STAKES 991.5 RETURNS 1,154.806 ROI 116.46 %
2007 STAKES 1,187.5 RETURNS 1,331.677 ROI 112.14 %
2008 STAKES 482.5 RETURNS 664.675 ROI 137.75 %
2009 STAKES 548.5 RETURNS 642.43 ROI 117.12 %
2010 STAKES 225.13 RETURNS 259.585 ROI 115.30 %
2011 STAKES 162.25 RETURNS 171.025 ROI 105.41%

TOTALS 3,597.38 RETURNS 4,224.198 ROI 117.39 %

There is an event and country by country breakdown for the first five years of results on this LINK.

These results ONLY apply to selections posted on the blog, nothing else, you almost all receive occasional copies of my daily notes, so should be well aware of that.

Stakes/ number of previews have reduced pretty much two year, upon two year, this is because nowadays ONLY a small number of my selections appear on the blog ( maybe 10-15%), in the past it was close to 80-90%. With reduced output on here, variance is always likely to come into play and this is something I discussed recently LINK.

THURSDAY DECEMBER 29TH

We originally looked at the Eredivisie outright market in early October, that post is reproduced below in blue type and re-reading that, would probably be a good place to start. PSV have since closed the gap to AZ at the top of the table to just a single point, with FC Twente and Ajax a further four points adrift and Feyenoord six behind the team from Eindhoven.

PSV are now trading at a best priced 2.625, so any of you that got on following the original write up, has got a good value bet.If you missed out, I still feel the current quote is still too high and it seems sure to trade an awful lot lower in the coming month or two. PSV restart after the Winter Break with matches against Utrecht, Vitesse, Heracles and de Graaf, three are in the bottom half of the table and even allowing for Vitesse, they have an average placing of 12th in Eredivisie. They is a very comfortable programme in the opening month and fixtures that PSV have averaged 2.42 points per game from in the last decade. During this sequence AZ host Ajax and the Amsterdam giants also travel to Feyenoord,both fixtures where the points have tended to be shared around.

Looking at the longer term fixtures, PSV have already travelled to AZ, Twente and Feyenoord and whilst they still have to visit the Amsterdam Arena in late March, the other three contenders all have to to come to the Philips Stadion, where PSV have yet to taste defeat this season and have lost only twice in the league in 35 months ( 46 starts). All five named players in the original preview are in a settled PSV team now, Matavez, Toivanen and Wijnaldum scored the five goals between them in the 5-1 road win at Heerenveen immediately before the break and incredibly, all five were on the scoresheet in the 6-1 recent thumping of Groningen, so all are clearly contributing to a very strong offensive line up. They look sure to get stronger in the second half of the season, if anyone finishes above them, they will be champions, but it is hard for me to see beyond PSV for the title and if you are not already on and don't object to tying your funds up for several months then I make them a 2 unit bet @ 2.625 general quote, I anticipate that you could trade out for a profit shortly in any case, as you now could with the "original bet".Several players are being actively courted by EPL clubs, namely Erik Pieters, Jetro Willems and Martens, but Willems is only a "baby", Martens only joined in the off season and any moves for them would surely be more likely in the summer and the club have stated ( as they all do) that nobody is for sale.

I would like to discuss the outright betting market in Eredivisie, where I am far from certain that the oddsmakers have the correct favourite. Ajax are circa 2.25 across the board to follow up last year's win, but no team has retained the title since PSV won four in a row between 2004-5 and 2007-08, with AZ , Twente and Ajax winning one each since then, they are and remain the "big 4" and whilst Feyenoord look set for a better season than last campaign's woeful 10th place finish, they have a lot of ground to make up and have not troubled the top three places in over half a decade.

AZ lead the way at present with a four point lead over Twente and PSV, with the favourites a further two points adrift. Therefore, Ajax already have ground to make up on all three and their road form is a real worry, it almost cost them the title last season, especially when a defeat at Den Haag late in the season, left matters out of their own hands. Incredibly, they have now fallen behind in each of their last NINE Eredivisie road starts and there are only so many times that you can play that get out of jail free card ! After the international break, they host the leaders, so at least one of them is going to drop points and follow that up with another home start, when Feyenoord visit the capital. Either side of those matches are two Champions League meetings with Dinamo Zagreb, where six points for Ajax would put them back firmly into contention to qualify, with Lyon and Real Madrid also playing a double header in the next two rounds of games, the Amsterdam giants are far from out of things and they will surely be firmly focused on these upcoming games.

It really is PSV's turn for the title and they spent big in the summer to give themselves the best chance possible to win back the Championship. They spent close to 30m euros in transfer fees to sign Tim Matavz from Groningen, Georginio Wijnaldum of Feyenoord and the Utrech pair of Dries Mertens and Kevin Strootman. Mertens hit the ground running and has scored 11 in just 8 starts, Matavz was a little slower off the mark, as were a number of the new signings, but he also has six goals now and with Ola Toivanen also adding five, it is clear that this group and Wijnaldum scored 14 last season, are going to more than make up for the loss of last season's top scorer Balazs Dzsudzsak , PSV have spent the huge fee they received for him ( and more) wisely and look a much better squad this season IMO.

They are scoring freely with 20 in their last five starts alone and seem very unlikely to get sidetracked much in the Europa League, where one more win with four games to play is likely to take them close to qualification and they will be focused on their next two league starts, where they play two teams against whom they have fantastic records, firstly hosting Utrecht ( 10-0-0 in the last decade) and then traveling to Vitesse where they are 6-4-0, having won on five of their last seven visits. They have already hosted Ajax this season and had to settle for a share of the points in a 2-2 draw, but there were plenty of positives to take from that, they led twice and had good chances to extend their lead and have clearly improved since then. Ajax are unplayable domestically on a real going day, but concede too easily against even the weakest Eredivisie sides and are a little too willing to go toe to toe and shoot it out, sometimes you have to grind out a result. I do not think AZ and Twente have the class of either, or the staying power over 34 matches to win the title this year. I make PSV a narrow favourite and feel that at 3.25 + they are a very solid bet. I cannot put this in red type, as the top quotes are not avaiilable to all ( 3.75 V Chandler/ Blue Square..... 3.50 Corals/ Boyle/ Sky) , if there were similar quotes for big liquidity across the board they would be a maximum ( 2 unit) bet for me.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM MY BOXING DAY NOTES .... WRITTEN EARLY ON 24/12

2011-12-26T10:51:00.002Z

Full domestic programme in England "today" and I have six matches to discuss......

CHAMPIONSHIP .... NOTTINGHAM FOREST - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

Forest are one of the clubs I want to keep an eye on in the coming month or so, they have been big underachievers this season, they have not won or even scored in five, but their two most recent outings, a 1-0 loss at Brighton where they had the better of the chances and a 0-0 draw at Bristol City, where only the heroics of David James denied then a 2-3 goal victory, hinted that an upturn in fortune was close. They have two home games in a row now, the second is against 5th placed Cardiff City and that is followed by starts against the top two sides in the Championship, Southampton and West Ham, so these are clearly the easiest points on offer for the time being, at least on paper. Confidence appears to remain high and Marcus Tudgay has talked this week about that and other players about how they are so much more solid at the back and just lacking a goal or two and it is not like they are not creating chances. This is a very big game for them and boss Steve Cotterill, however, for this game, unless Joel Lynch recovers it will mean probably playing returning defensive midfielder Guy Moussi in central defence, that is far from ideal, but Moussi has filled in there before successfully. Cotterill is well used to these type of problems from his time at Portsmouth and will certainly not be too fazed by the situation.

Posh also have problems and said earlier in the week they would be without three key players with striker Lee Tomlin having joined Grant McCann and Mark Little on the sidelines, however, it is now claimed that Tomlin might be available. They always look stronger when he plays, so I understand why they would give him every opportunity to prove his fitness, but with so many games on the horizon, it could prove to be the wrong decision to rush him back. I do think that Forest will come good very soon and with Posh only having beaten hapless Coventry in six starts and with just four wins from 34 away games at this level, today might well be the day. If Lynch makes the starting line up and /or Tomlin misses out, I would be even more keen, for now, just a flat stake .... Nottingham Forest -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line.

LEAGUE 1 ...... HUDDERSFIELD TOWN- CHESTERFIELD

Just one cleansheet in six for Town, who have struggled since losing that incredle unbeaten record recently. However, striker Jordan Rhodes remains on fire and notched all four goals in the 4-4 draw at Hillsborough last saturday. He must feel that the schedulers have given him a Christmas present with the holiday trip to the B2net Stadium, as the Spirites have conceded 22 goals in their last ten starts and not kept a clean sheet since boss John Sheridan was wearing short trousers to school. We discussed the hosts ahead of their game with Walsall last week, which ended 1-1, they created a lot of chances 19, including nine on target, but took too long ( over an hour) to get back into the game after falling behind in the first half. Having just got striker Jack Lester back, they are going to lose him for three games on a violent conduct charge. Even without Lester, I would not rush to take the understandably low odds on the hosts, but I do think there will be goals and Rhodes has far too much pace and energy for Neal Trotman at the heart of the visiting defence and the Terriers know him well from a lengthy loan spell at the club, two seasons ago. Field have leaked an average of 2.6 per goals per game on the road and the "over" could be landed by Rhodes on his own, even without Lester the visitors do have goals in them and have scored in their last 12 road starts, notching at least two in half ( six) of those. Given that Town have also been leaking recently a 3-2 ( odds 34.0) or 4-2 ( odds 51.0) home win is far from impossible and 5.0 + for the visitors to score over 1.5 goals is a tempting pick at juicy odds and something they have already done at Notts County and MK Dons, teams with similar home records to Huddersfield and they also scored one at both of the top two Charlton and Wednesday, at Hillsborough, it should have been three ! Town are worried about their defence and tried to get Jamie McCombe recalled from Preston where he is on loan, but with no recall clause in the deal, it was refused . However, I will keep things simple and opt for 1.5 units "Over" 2.75 goals 1.93 asian line.

Good Luck.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS !

2011-12-23T09:44:00.003Z

I know that not all of you celebrate Christmas, but most of you will have some extra free time with your family, or loved ones, over the next few days.

Make the most of it, enjoy yourselves and have a happy and peaceful time.

Good Luck.

CHRISTMAS EVE FIXTURES .....

2011-12-23T09:43:00.001Z

Inverness CT and Aberdeen meet in the "North East" derby game, a fixture traditionally dominated by the visitors, the Dons come into the match on the back of two wins and with it a degree of mid table safety, but will surely be looking for the hat-trick, ahead of a pair of tough looking New Year fixtures. They are 7-2-1 in their last ten visits, matches which have averaged 2.7 goals, with the last six all producing at least two and this one seems likely to follow suit, with ICT being involved in some recent high scoring encounters. They have scored in 7 of their last 8, only coming up short against Celtic in a match where they were holding their own, before a red card, meant they had to play the final 55 + minutes with ten men. Terry Butcher's side have not had much luck or decisions go their way ( see the Rangers write up below), but are prepared to take the game to opponents and their last four and 6 from 7, have all gone "over". They seem unlikely to sit back today, they are without a key defensive player in Chris Hogg and are already without an option or two at the back, they have not kept a cleansheet in 21 starts and will probably need two goals to get a result this afternoon. Aberdeen have just one clean sheet themselves in nine starts and that came against a poor Hibs side, who had the better of the game and chances. Weather should not be a concern, goals for me and the odds look good. "Over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line.

St Mirren and Glasgow Rangers meet in the televised fixture and this seems sure to be a tough, close, hard fough affair. Saints nine home games have only seen 18 goals in total and three of their four losses, have come by the miminum margin. Rangers will be ultra keen to win this and go into Wednesday's Old Firm derby holding at least the four point advantage over Celtic they currently enjoy. They will also be looking to conserve as much energy as possible and I do not see them needlessly chasing a second goal if and when they take the lead. Rangers have won on eight of their last ten visits here, with five also coming by the single goal margin and that is what I think is the likely outcome again today. Both teams have lost their way a little recently and any wins that have come the way of the league leaders, have been hard earned, like their 2-1 win over ICT at Ibrox last time out, when the visitors took the game to Rangers laying siege to the home goal in the second half and being denied two big penalty shouts.

Three of Rangers last five victories have come by a single goal, in their last 12 starts they have only scored more than two goals on one one occasion and they have conceded in six of their last nine starts, fixtures which came against teams with an average league placing of 8th ( in a 12 team league). They are trying to address this lack of goals and are set to get busy in the transfer window. Saints will be without Jim Goodwin and Lee Mairs today, which are big losses, but they have a couple of players, especially youngster Kenny McLean who will be looking to impress ahead of the window, infront of the tv cameras and they will be very motivated today. The two clubs played out a 1-1 draw at Ibrox two months ago and this should again be close, my suggestion would be Rangers to win by one goal @ circa 3.50.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ...

2011-12-21T14:06:00.002Z

Rather surprisingly, away day's at Craven Cottage have been Manchester United's nemesis in recent seasons and given the Red's ongoing defensive woes, which we have touched upon many times, I can see that sequence continuing this evening.

United have taken just one point from their last three visits, with Fulham scoring in eight of the last ten visits, at least two in the last three, including a 3-0 win here in the pre Christmas fixture two seasons ago, to be precise, two years and two days ago. There is still not too much protection for the United backline and the hosts will doubtless take the game to the visitors, as they normally do when the "bigger" clubs come calling, with far too many of the other "minnows" adopting a much too cautious approach. They fought back from 2-0 down to claim a share of the spoils with Manchester City, a result all the more noteworthy, as they were struggling a little at that time, since when, they have beaten Liverpool and taken a point at the Emirates. The only blip verses top six teams, came against Tottenham, with Happy Harry's inform team winning 3-1 here in West London. That result was very unfair to Fulham, they created 26 attempts on goal, including a massive 20 on target, I lost count of the number of times Brad Friedel saved his team that day and the third goal and decisive goal came in the 96th minute, a reverse of the scoreline would have been a truer reflection of the game. So, we can see that the home side tend to show their best against the best and of course, United fall into that category. Both teams arrive on the back of easy weekend wins and in good form, but I still think that United have to get very busy in the transfer window, if they are to claim yet another EPL title. They have only kept consecutive clean sheets in that mini sequence following the horror show 6-1 home loss to City and the only "strong" team they met then was Everton, who were very wasteful. In my opinion they have over achieved in the EPL this season, probably having at least five more points than they should have and which their performances have merited. Bobby Zamora is set to return to the home line up and I have to take Fulham and the draw. Fulham +0.5 ball 2.20 + asian line.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

2011-12-20T19:22:00.005Z

In the EPL, all eyes will be on Ewood Park and the relegation six pointer ( or is it more), between local rivals Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanderers, hard to see where the loser will go from here, for Rovers boss Steve Kean it will definitely be the job centre and the protesters will be out in force tonight at the first sign of things going wrong. That hardly helps anyone, apart from the visitors, but that is what Rovers have to deal with at the moment, Kean's days have been numbered for months now and the decision should have long since been taken. Wanderers have lost five in a row since putting five past Stoke and were poor at Fulham over the weekend when the two goal margin of defeat, could easily have been doubled, they are very vunerable from crosses and we should see Rovers giant defender Christopher Samba up at every opportunity and they have conceded an average of 2.375 goals per game. Rovers are without a cleansheet in 19 EPL starts and we discussed them ( below) ahead of the 2-1 home defeat to WBA on saturday, they are very gung-ho because they have to be and are very dependent on the aforementioned Samba at the back. Problem for me, is that Samba and his Bolton counterpart Gary Cahill both seem highly likely to be off in the transfer window and whilst it should not stop them from performing, it will surely be at the back of their mind, that they could miss out on a career defining move, by picking up an injury in the next fortnight. Anyway, it is very hard not to see goals again tonight and whilst both will be anxious early, the first goal and it shouldn't be too long coming with these two, is going to throw this wide open. Wanderers have won big at both Wigan ( 3-1) and QPR ( 4-0) , in addition to the victory at Stoke and I feel they are the better team, but they have not won, or been involved in what I would call a "battle" and that is what it will definitely be tonight and looked short of a true leader on the pitch at Craven Cottage, with even Kevin Davies "hiding". There is only one real option, both teams will score and it is "over" for me. 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.98 asian line. If you wanted a small interest at a big price, 7.0 + for Wanderers to score over 2.5 goals is an option, they have already done it twice on the road and Rovers have conceded three to Arsenal, Newcastle, Norwich and Wigan.

Good Luck.

written SATURDAY 17/12

At Ewood Park, I have to go for goals again in the Blackburn Rovers- West Bromwich Albion game, we have collected twice in recent Rovers starts and goals are a regular feature for them, with 7 of their last 8 going "over" and both teams on the scoresheet in 8 of their last 9 starts. Their last 14 matches have seen nine go over the 3.5 goal line, with five of those producing at least six goals, which is incredible. They have beaten Swansea 4-2 , Arsenal 4-3 and Newcastle 4-3 ( AET) at home and posted two 3-3 draws on the road at Norwich and Wigan.

Albion look to be regressing to pre Roy Hodgson defensive woes and are without a cleansheet in seven, they are another team who seem happier in their travels, where they are more expansive and appear to play with less pressure. Rovers took the lead at Sunderland last week and were denied another "good" goal when leading, before defending too deep and conceding two heartbreaking late goals. They will not make that mistake today and it is hard not to see both going toe to toe and another shoot out. 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.02 asian line

UPDATE .....

2011-12-18T13:15:00.002Z

I have had a very, very strange month, with some unbelievably good ideas and big priced suggestions, like circa 17.5 the "over" 5.5 goals in the Dinamo - Lyon game ( see 7-8 posts below), the 5.0 Preston to win yesterday ( post directly below) and I have just started today with another, having put up Real Betis + 1 ball 1.91 as my main bet, but also writing ...... If Betis can keep the game and crowd quiet early and then show the same attacking intent as on display in their last road game, a "shock" away win could be on the cards.

Betis won 2-0 with two second half goals, despite ending the match with ten men and traded at circa 6.80 on the exchanges and 6.0 pretty much across the board.

I say that it has been a "strange month" as my main "red type" selections have not performed so well, but I do not run a tipping service, I preview a number of events and matches and it is for the reader to match up what they read, with their own thoughts and incorporate them into their personal betting portfolio. There is a huge amount of valuable information contained within my daily notes and if you get to see a copy, even only occasionally, you should read them fully to get the most out of them. Most of my readers do not need to be spoon fed and use them as they are designed, which is as a betting aid.

I would love to subscribe to my own service, or ideally, three or four just like it ( but there aren't any IMO), that would certainly make my job so much easier.

I write about a lot of leagues and sports, too many some would say " you cannot be an expert in all of them ", well, I don't claim to be an "expert" in any, just that for over 20 years I have made a profit in all of them and you can view five years of proofed stats here ( LINK) and if you see any leaks or weak spots, then you really need to book an eye test.

Actually, upon reflection, my ego has got the better of me and I have to say that I probably would consider myself an "expert" in several sports/ leagues, just probably not the obvious ones.

Brentford threw away two points yesterday btw, 1-0 up against ten men who had only created one goalscoring chance in 80 minutes with eleven players, the Bees were perhaps a little too negative and happy to try and hold on to what they had, although to be fair, the Bury keeper made a fantastic save to keep his team in the match just before the equaliser. I would have liked the extra points to take into a difficult sequence of New Year fixtures, but the Bees are a work in progress and can only get better IMO.

I might put one more preview on here later today, lets see how the Ligue 1 match goes first !

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

2011-12-18T10:16:00.003Z

In Ligue 1, Rennes travel to Ajaccio and simply have to win to keep pace with clubs battling for a Champions League spot, as discussed before, a long awaited camapign in europe's premier competition, is the be all and end all of their season and all their eggs are in this particular basket.

The visitors come into the game having collected just one point from their last two starts, in both of which they paid the price for a very sluggish start and they have done everything possible to prepare fully for today and are looking to come firing out of the blocks. They took a 25 man party to Madrid in midweek (see below) for the Europa League game with Atletico, which was a friendly", they then stayed in the city and trained on Friday, before flying directly to Corsica.

They are 5-0-4 on the road and only leaders Montpellier have scored more away goals, a win would take them into 5th and perhaps more importantly to potentially within 5 points of the summit. The current top 3 all face road games on Tuesday/ Wednesday, when Rennes have a very win-able home tie, so three points today could see them in a strong position entering the mini winter break. Hosts are already booked for a swift return to Ligue 2 and reading some comments on their website, are kind of focused on a run in the cup, they were said to be devastated by conceding a very late goal at Nancy last week and added that the single point felt like another loss and was proving tough to get out of the system.

Big boost for Rennes with the return to the squad of Onyekachi Apam, he had not played in 18 months since completing a 4m euros transfer from Nice, following major surgery. He was signed to build a young defence around and his return to action, is like having a new big money signing.

1.5 units Rennes -0.75 ball 2.00 + asian line

Keepers: Costil, Diallo, Ndiaye Defenders: Mavinga, Apam, Mangane, Kana-Biyik, Jebbour, John Boye, Danzé, Foulquier, Theophile Catherine
Midfield: Tettey, Feret, Mandjeck, Brahimi, Pajot, Doumbia, M'Vila
Attackers: Pitroipa, Kembo, Boukari, Hadji, Montaño, Diarra

Back later.

PHIL BROWN ..... AVAILABLE FOR SINGING ENGAGEMENTS ANYWHERE !

2011-12-17T12:11:00.003Z

SATURDAY DECEMBER 17TH

There is quite a lot to get through today, so let's start in League 1 and the televised match between MK Dons and Preston North End. New North End Chairman Peter Ridsdale only took eight days to get rid of Phil Brown and I am sure the decision was already taken before he took charge of the club on December 6th. The hugely experienced pairing of Graham Alexander and David Unsworth will take charge of team affairs whilst a replacement ( Billy Davies ?) is sought. I think Brown was a little unlucky, he got Preston really buzzing and set up to play a certain way and the 4-3-3 formation was working incredibly well, before he lost all three front players at the same time and for extended periods. however, he spent too long trying to stick with his game plan, when he clearly didn't have the personnel to do so and paid the price, when results nosedived. If you had said to me ten weeks ago that PNE would be available at circa 5.0 to beat any third tier team this season, firstly I would have laughed and secondly I would have made it my bet of the season, however, like in politics one week, let alone ten, is a long time in football and that day has arrived and I hesitate to pull the trigger. I am sure that the new coach when he arrives, especially if he can keep both Mellor and Hume at the club, will oversee a big upturn in fortunes, but there is no "new coach effect" today, having said that, the mood at the club seems likely to have lifted, despite one or two senior players speaking up for Brown this week, they are the more vocal players and I suspect the silent majority are probably relieved.

Dons are very strong at home, where they are unbeaten and their high possession style of play is well suited to the big playing surface, something we have discussed on several occasions.They have quite a few knocks today a couple have been openly discussed, but boss Karl Robinson has admitted there are a couple more, but he doesn't want to disclose the players concerned.

I will probably play a minimal stake on Preston at circa 5.0, as I couldn't handle it if they won unbacked at that price and IMO, any stake lost on them today is only loaned, as there will be money to be made on North End in the next month or two. There is a good chance that we will see Neil Mellor and Iain Hume from the start today, Hume played 45 minutes last week on his comeback, so I see no reason why he will not be available for 75 + today and if the pair have a going day, they can give Dons plenty to think about.

Elsewhere in the third tier, the Chesterfield board gave a big vote of confidence to boss John Sheridan this week, it seemed a little more than the normally dreaded vote and in it they detailed that funds would be provided to strengthen in the transfer window. That is good news for Sheridan and the supporters, but it doesn't really ease the pressure today, when Walsall are the visitors. The Spirites go to Huddersfield on Boxing Day and failure to win today is going to leave them cast adrift at the foot of the table, with a mountain to climb in the New Year, they need three points and soon. It is certainly not going to get much easier than today, the Saddlers are still reeling from an extra time defeat on home soil to Dagenham, who are 92nd of 92 clubs in the Football League in midweek and that was an expensive loss as it came along with injuries to three players and with Ryan Jarvis still suspended, the visitors are short of options today.

Hosts have lost Leon Clarke, who has returned to Swindon Town after completion of his three month loan, but the prolific Jack Lester looks set to be available to play some part today, even if it is from off the bench. Chesterfield do have goals in them and get forward very quickly, but defensively have struggled all season. However, this is kind of their season on the line, it is their last home start of 2011 and they desperately need the points, they are facing a tired opponent, who might be forced to play a youth team player in the key central defensive role and one who arrive at a similar low ebb confidence wise. There was plenty to like about Chesterfield's unlucky loss at Wycombe last week and in recenty starts against Preston and Sheffield United, I take them to claim a much needed three points. Chesterfield -0.5 ball 2.25 + general quote.

I have a further "red type " selection at odds of 3.50 and two strong ( 1.5 unit picks) in the EPL, both at odds against and also a speculative suggested bet at odds of over 21-1 ( trying to pay for Christmas and New Year in one fell swoop) that I feel has a real chance of success. However, I will not be able any of those on the blog today, but will probably return with a pick or two tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ... TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

2011-12-16T09:52:00.003Z

Next up is the relegation six pointer between Istres and Amiens, where I am keen on the hosts. Istres meet two teams immediately below them in the table before the winter break and if they don't manage to win at least one of them, are very likely to spend Christmas in the drop zone. I think that will come tonight, home coach José Pasqualetti is very focused on this game and in getting those so valuable three points, his team have stopped the defensive rot ( only Monaco have conceded more goals) with a pair of draws in the league, those results were sandwiched inbetween two cups wins, where they managed nine unanswered goals, they may have come against lower league opposition, but were huge confidence boosting fixtures. In the last of those, they notched six and all three strikers contributed, a hat trick for young Nicolas de Preville and three between Nassim Akrour and Sid Ali Yahia-Cherif their hugely experienced Algerian pair. All three are in the squad and will be salivating at the prospect of facing this goal shy Amiens side ( just 12 all season, a third of which came in one game a shock 4-0 defeat of Chateauroux and we have seen nothing like that, before or since !), especially since they are without Paul, Lybohy and Cisse, the first two would be the first names on the team sheet and Cisse is seen as cover for Lybohy and this is going to leave them severely weakened at the back.

This problem is compounded tonight, as there has been a huge amount of rain in the Amiens area and the club have been unable to train or prepare for this match on grass, with all work done on a synthetic surface. All the advantages are with Istres and on what I have seen ( both teams twice in full and highlights of other fixtures), they are the better team anyway and certainly the one with more offensive threat and I take them to win. 1.5 points Istres -0.5 goal 2.14 +asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY NOTES ....

2011-12-14T08:43:00.003Z

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14TH

Wins for Oldham Athletic and Internazionale at very nice odds, steadied the ship after a poor weekend and after taking Monday "off", that was a promising way to start the new week.

Four selections today, including two very strong ideas in the Europa League.

Going to start with the Thursday morning ( for those of us in Europe) kick off between Al-Sadd this year's AFC Champions League winners and Barcelona, far and away the best club side in world football, in the "semi final" of the Club World Cup, which this year returns to Japan after the UAE played host the last two years.

Barce need no introduction, so let's start with a few words about Al- Sadd, they are certainly no lightweights, or shrinking violets and have a big physical presence, being renamed "Al Badd" by the South Korean media after a hugely controversial, which is a bit of an understatement, two legged semi final with Suwon Samsung Bluewings in the AFC Champions League. They then had to return to Korea for the final, with all the baggage and media attention hanging over them from the earlier game and showed huge courage to beat Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors on penalties, in front of a very noisy and huge home crowd. The South Korean clubs had dominated the competition in recent seasons, something we discussed earlier in the year and for Al-Sadd to beat not one, but two of them, including the domestic champions in the final on home soil, tells you all you need to know about the mental fortitude of the team from Qatar. They are match fit after beating Espérance in the "quarter finals" and have a lot of experience in their ranks with Kader Keita ( 60 caps Ivory Coast), Marmadou Niang ( 50 games for Senegal) and Nadir Belhadj ( 50 + appearances for Algeria) all well known to european audiences, Lee Jung-Soo has played over 50 times for South Korea and all the others are Qatari internationals.

Of course, they have not met the like of Barcelona before and if the Catalan giants put their best foot forward, they can probably win this with ease. They have taken a squad of 23 players to Japan, all the big names are there and we are sure to see each in action, if not in this game, then in the final against Santos or Kashiwa Reysol. Barce got the result they craved in Madrid at the weekend and that will have hugely lifted the mood on the very long flight over, all were given one "day off ", but like their training day, with it came a lot of calls from the media and PR work. We talked about this in the summer, when Barce went to the US, there is huge demand on them, as a club and world champions to "get out there" and be seen and they take these responsibilities seriously, it has a big payback of course, especially in huge still untapped markets like Asia and the USA, but it is time consuming.

When Barce last played in this competition in 2009, they opened with a 3-1 win over Atlante of Mexico, their opponents led for over half an hour and it was only half way through the second half that they really got on top and then they relaxed and eased off a little. Messi only played the final 35 minutes btw. This whole competition is a PR event, of course, Barcelona will want to win and we could see the best of them in the final if they face Santos, but it doesn't really help anyone if they come an embarrass the "minnows", especially with Qatar ( at least at the moment) due to host a World Cup and looking to raise their profile at every opportunity. That is kind of a cynical view I guess, but even if that is not the case and Barcelona look to score as many as possible, after their biggest game of the season on saturday, a 14 hour flight and a couple of days with jet lag and the media following them everywhere, I think they will struggle to notch four against such a professional, physical opponent, far more used to the surroundings and I have to take Al- Sadd and that huge handicap start. Al-Sadd +3 goals 2.19 asian line.

There are three bets that I like in the Europa League, I am not going to spend a huge amount of time talking about the matches, they are all ......... rest of the notes are restricted.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

2011-12-13T09:35:00.003Z

The weather is going to play a huge role in the UK domestic games today, there is heavy rain and more importantly high winds all over England, they battered Scotland at the weekend and have now moved South and even in the South East, which normally misses out on the worst of this kind of weather, it is very nasty and certainly not condusive to playing football.

The FA Cup ties at Yeovil, Walsall, Grimsby and especially Oldham, which is regarded as the coldest and most exposed ground in the country, at least to lower league football fans and is not called " Ice Station Zebra" without good reason, are likely to be very hard hit, but probably more of that later in the day.

For most neutrals, Chelsea's win over Manchester City was a good result for the title race and it puts Roberto Mancini and his team under increased pressure ahead of the visit from the Gunners on Sunday. That pressure will be cranked up, if Manchester United win at QPR and/or Chelsea at Wigan on saturday. Three points for United would take them back to the top of the table and give City players something to ponder when they go for their saturday night curry !

I really hope that happens, not just because as an "old school" Brentford fan, I still consider QPR as my club's real rival, but I really want to see how City react under real pressure. Very interesting weekend in prospect.

The photagraph is of Boundary Park , Oldham in high summer, which is "kind" of a joke, but if you have spent a midweek night there in December-February, you will not be laughing ! I do admit to being a "southern softie" though and keep my shirt on at all times whilst watching the beautiful game !

Back later.

SUNDAY MORNING BLUES ....

2011-12-11T10:06:00.003Z

I did not have a good day at all yesterday, poor results and frozen to the core watching a game where I was on the away team and had to sit surrounded by delirious home supporters !

I would like to say that I was unlucky, but that was not really the case, Scunthorpe United led for an hour and had two chances late to win the game before that late, late Carlisle winner, but it would have been an injustice and it has to go down as "one of those days".

Brentford won at Griffin Park, which is rare this season and always cause for celebration, at least in my household ! The Bees are now in the top six, but trail the five clubs above them by six points and you can argue that they are the five biggest, or five of the six biggest clubs in the division, so Brentford are going to have to cling on to their coattails for the time being and try to put some pressure on them in the New Year, when I do expect the Bees to improve......... All I want for Christmas is a kindly Championship side to lend us a promising young striker !

Back later.

SATURDAY ..... THE HOLIDAY SEASON STARTS HERE ....

2011-12-10T10:28:00.003Z

I discussed seven of today's matches in my daily notes, putting up three selections and one is reproduced below. This is an important stage of the season for so many teams, the crowded holiday fixtures are fast approaching and they are always regarded as key for every club, but I feel these matches just before are of , at least, equal importance, as they set the tone for the busy fortnight ahead, when there is little time to do anything other than play and recover.

Manchester City will get a real examination of their title aspirations in the next eight days, going to Stamford Bridge on Monday and then hosting the Gunners next Sunday. If they slip up, Tottenham Hotspur might be one the biggest beneficiaries and continue their run towards the top with an "easy" run of fixtures in the next month. I highlighted their mid season fixture list a few weeks back and suggested that 2.50 to claim a top four spot looked big and a price that you could definitely trade out for a profit short term and they are now a general 1.40 .

Aside from hosting Chelsea in 12 days time, seven of their next eight fixtures come against teams outside the top 7, with an average league position of 13th, so if you favour them to win at the Britannia Stadium tomorrow, the 18-1 for them to win the title could also halve very quickly, however hard it might be to envisage them as eventual champions.

In La Liga tonight we have El Clasico with Real Madrid hosting Barcelona, a match half the world will be watching. The boot is on the other foot this time round, with Barce not daring to lose this match, in recent seasons it has been Real coming into the game in that situation and seemingly unable to play their normal game. This time round the hosts will still have a lead ( game in hand) at the top of the table, regardless of what happens tonight and that takes off much of the pressure IMO, last season, even at the Bernabeu, Jose Mourinho was too cautious to really go after Barce, but he learned from the numerous meetings since that frightful 5-0 loss in November 2010 and in six h2h games this year, they been very competitive in all bar one. I hope JM throws off the shackles tonight and goes for it, Barcelona have looked vunerable on the road this season and their only two domestic wins have come at Gijon and Granada, both by the minimal margin. However, we all know that they if the visitors have "one of those nights" then no team can live them. This is one game I am happy to watch without a financial interest, but if you pushed me to pick, it would have to be Real off level ball.

In League 1 with the Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United fixture, the visitors sit eleven places and the same number of points ahead of their hosts, but I do not feel that is the a true reflection of their ability and I certainly expect that gap to close, maybe even turn around before the end of the season. Scunny and boss Alan Knill have had a very tough time of things injury wise , they have really struggled for consistency, at times being woeful, like in most of their last five games, at others, like in the four matches before that sequence when they drew at Brentford and MK Dons and played two strong teams Tranmere Rovers ( 4-2) and Huddersfield Town ( 2-2) off the park here at Glanford Park, they should have been the team to end the Terriers record breaking unbeaten run, but missed not one, but two penalties in that game ! Carlisle have not scored in four road starts against League 1 teams, but as two of those came at league leaders Charlton Athletic ( one in the FA Cup), I suppose we can cut them a little slack, but goals are a problem for the visitors and the mood amongst supporters of the club is poor, especially for a club on the playoff fringes and they are hyper critical of boss Greg Abbott and especially his negative tactics and team selection, this is another club desperately trying to add a striker asap, but one operating on a very tight budget.

Scunthorpe have had the most attempts on goal on any League 1 team this season ( 251) and the highest number on target ( 136), they have also been denied by the woodwork a division high eight times, which, when you add in the missed penalties, it doesn't take a genius to work out that they could/should be much higher up the league.They have targeted today as a must win fixture and I believe they will have benefitted from the 13 day break, that has enabled them to clear the treatment room slightly and put in a lot of work on the practice ground. I understand that this has gone really well and coach Knill has focused on his team keeping their shape, something that has been a problem with several youngsters and loanees coming into the squad and also working on pressing when his side lose possession

Jimmy Ryan, Jordan Robertson, Sam Togwell and Andrew Wright all return today, Cliff Byrne is also a possible and the hugely talented Damien Moziaka probably needs one more week on the sidelines, but his return to training has been a huge boost and now at least, there is real competition for starting places.Hosts have three of their next four starts at Glanford Park and this is a real and probably last chance to kick start their season, they have a terrific record in this series and are considered Carlisle's bogey yeam, with a 6-0-1 record here and 6-1-1 in the reverse fixture. I like their chances of adding to that today. I almost forgot, after taking training last saturday morning ( no game remember) Knill then drove personally to London to watch Carlisle play at Charlton in the cup, he could have sent a coach or scout, so that shows how importantly he views this game, either that or he didn't want to go home to his wife ! Scunthorpe United -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

EUROPA LEAGUE COMES TO MANCHESTER ....

2011-12-08T08:32:00.003Z

We are still coming to terms with Manchester City as a major force in european football and they played in the Europa League last season, so it comes as less of a shock to see them in europe's "other" competition. However, for the red half of Manchester, it is more a case of an embarrassment which has to be endured and an encumbrance which will hang around their necks like a yoke of shame for the rest of the season.

United have played for four months with no protection for their back line , I first raised this and was laughed at for doing so, when United beat Tottenham 3-0 and Arsenal 8-2 early season, but it was clear even then, that it would cause them major problems and a series of recent cleansheets against "weaker" opposition, merely papered over the cracks and long term, this painful elimination from the Champions League might turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as Sir Alex will now surely make a quality holding midfielder ( or two) a priority in the transfer window. Every cloud has a silver lining and United will not have to worry about any new signings being eligible for the Champions League !

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

2011-12-07T21:41:00.002Z

I only covered three Champions League matches in my daily notes this week, Marseille and Chelsea both won yesterday and I sent my preview of the Dinamo Zagreb- Olympique Lyonnais, out yesterday by email and posted it today on the blog and wrote ....

I make the "over" a solid bet and given Lyon's need for goals and if they can get a couple early, it might increase the pressure on Ajax, allied to the potential mental let down for Dinamo, who go on their winter break after this fixture, the score could really be anything here and over 4.5 goals at circa 7.0 + ( 7.40 on exchanges) and/ or "over" 5.5 goals at 17.0 + ( 17.5 exchanges) might also carry a tiny investment from me, 2-4, 2-5, 1-5 something like that is far from impossible and one of those is available at 200-1. For my main bet, a more cautious 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

THE RESULT .....

THE "OVER" 2.5 GOALS 2.03 LANDED INSIDE 47 MINUTES.

THE "OVER" 4.5 GOALS 7.40 LANDED INSIDE 52 MINUTES.

THE "OVER" 5.5 GOALS 17.0 LANDED INSIDE 64 MINUTES.

LYON WON 7-1 !

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

UPDATE .....

2011-12-07T15:59:00.003Z

Just to advise that because of the Christmas and New Year emails, which you should all have been advised about ( deadline to sign up 09.00 Friday). There will not be any "freebie" emails until after January 9th.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .....

2011-12-07T09:33:00.005Z

I discussed two Champions League games in my notes yesterday, just two btw, they are reproduced below. Both Marseille and Chelsea won, but it is the OM match that I would like to discuss. This was a golden opportunity to win decent money on a single fixture.

If you read my match preview you will know what each team was looking for and when the Dortmund players and coaching staff went back to the dressing room at half time and saw that Olympiakos were 2-0 up, they knew that any dreams of further progression were over. For Marseille, who had pulled a goal back just before the break to trail 2-1, they knew that a win and only a win would see them claim that all important second spot in the group. How is each team going to approach the second half ? Who has everything to play for and all the motivation in the world ? Which team already has one, maybe both eyes on a vital Bundesliga game at the weekend ? The goals came late for OM, but they came and whenever they come , they count and the visitors were never going to give up trying.

You have to try and think about how matches are likely to play out and much of this, is as much about a mental state of mind , as the physical situation. As I am fond of saying, 90% of all sport is played between the ears and getting a team/player onto the field of play, with the right mental approach is absolutely key.

Most people can't be bothered to do the research, even if you present them with all the facts, they are still too lazy to take a minute or two to read them and think about the match/event. To be blunt, that is idiotic IMO, if you are betting for fun/entertainment then fine, if you do not really care if you win or lose and only regard money spent on sports betting as the same as night out at the pub/ restaurant/ cinema, that is your choice and you are no different from the 96% of the betting public who do likewise.

We are back to that hard work ethic here, to make money sports betting you have to work hard and even if you get some help along the way sometimes ( my daily notes ?), you still have to read them and think about your bets.

I have one Champions League selection for today, which I sent my regular readers yesterday afternoon, it is also reproduced, at the foot of this post. It might win, it may not, to be honest it doesn't overly matter to me personally, as I know that I will win, if not today, then tomorrow, next month, or the one after , long term I always do, because I work harder at it than anyone else I know.

Here endeth the sermon for the day !

Good Luck.

TUESDAY DECEMBER 6TH

I am going to start in the Champions League and the very "odd" fixture between Borussia Dortmund and Olympique Marseille. Hosts have to win by four or more and hope that Arsenal , who have already won the group and travel without several key players and with a massive domestic holiday campaign on the horizon, get something in Greece against Olympiakos, who are desperate for the three points. There is very little chance of that scenario happening and also, IMO, the worst case scenario for Borussia is that the Gunners win and they narrowly defeat OM and find themselves in the Europa League. The Bundesliga title race looks sure to go down to the wire, as will the battle for CL spots for next season and any further european involvement this time round, in anything other than the premier competition will surely be seen as an unwanted distraction. Dortmund are without Bender, Schmelzer, Subotic and both Leitner and Kehl are doubts and coach Jurgen Klopp is going to make a late decision about what kind of starting eleven he puts out.

I like OM as a side and feel, as I have said many times before, that they are ideally set up to play on the road, where they do not have to make the running. They can afford to lose this game by a narrow margin if Arsenal beat Olympiakos and will also be without a couple of important players, but the difference with them is twofold, one they can win and all other calulations are irrelevant, so at least they are in control of their own destiny and secondly they are a huge price to win (5.0 +) and we can always take a chance, against what might be a leseer motivated opponent at those kind of odds. Marseille to win 5.30 exchanges, there is some 5.50 in places.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea entertain Valencia, the Blues will progress with a win or 0-0 draw, but a 1-1 scoreline will see them lose out and already ten points adrift of Manchester City in the title race, the prospect of Europa League football is going to be very hard to swallow for owner Roman Abramovich and will massively increase pressure on coach Andre Villas-Boas . Chelsea do not do too many 0-0 draws and even if this match was heading that way with 20 minutes to go, Valencia would have to open up and look for a goal, which will open up the game and space at the back for the blues to exploit. I expect AVB to stick to his attacking principles, that is why he was bought to the club, not only to bring success, but to do so with some style. In the reverse fixture at the Mestalla, which finished 1-1, Chelsea were coasting, before gifting the hosts a penalty, they created the better chances ( ten on target, a massive number on the road in europe against quality opposition) and it was an awkward fixture for Juan Mata, who had only left Valencia the previous month. Having come to London, to further his career ( as well as the money), he will be desperate not to lose out to his former club and all the spanish players in the home squad tonight will surely be busting a gut to progress. Chelsea usually step up in these must win fixtures at the Bridge and I take them to win and to do so with a touch of class. Chelsea -0.75 ball 2.0 asian line.

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 7TH

I am going to stick with just the one Champions League match, the tie between Dinamo Zagreb and Olympique Lyonnais. The visitors look to have blown their chance to progress out of the group stage by failing to beat Ajax in France on Matchday 5, now they need to win this, combined with a Real Madrid win in Amsterdam, with a seven goal swing somewhere along the line. That would have been at least a possibility had Real something to play for, but they do not and a handful of their big name players have not even travelled to the Netherlands.

However, a chance is a chance and should Lyon take the lead and then hear from Amsterdam that Madrid are ahead, it will then be "game on ". At the same time that Lyon were toiling against Ajax, Real were thumping Dinamo 6-2 in the Bernabeu, they were 4-0 up inside 20 minutes and could probably have scored eight or more if they had really pushed things, that should at least give Lyon encouragement. Dinamo scored their two goals late on and gave their fans in the stadium something to cheer. If the hosts approach this match in a similar frame of mind, we should at least see some entertaining open football and I think one goal will throw this match wide open, almost regardless of what is happening in the other group game. I make the "over" a solid bet and given Lyon's need for goals and if they can get a couple early, it might increase the pressure on Ajax, allied to the potential mental let down for Dinamo, who go on their winter break after this fixture, the score could really be anything here and over 4.5 goals at circa 7.0 + ( 7.40 on exchanges) and/ or "over" 5.5 goals at 17.0 + ( 17.5 exchanges) might also carry a tiny investment from me, 2-4, 2-5, 1-5 something like that is far from impossible and one of those is available at 200-1. For my main bet, a more cautious 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ...

2011-12-06T13:16:00.004Z

Osasuna found a late, late winner at home to Betis on Sunday. After dominating much of the first half they went into the break ahead 1-0, but then seemed content to sit on their lead and invited the visitors to take the intiative. Real equalised and spurned a couple of good chances to edge ahead with the hosts defending far too deep, before Osasuna found that dramatic late winner. It was fortunate, but we were due a late goal our way and I will try to remember this match the next time things go against me/us ! Only joking ! Of course, I won't recall this game, it is only the bad beats that gamblers remember !

I am coming off a VERY good week, with some good priced winners and a huge ROI in the last seven days and I am particularly proud of the two NFL winners over the weekend. Many people think that football is my best sport and that is true I suppose, it is my bread and butter and you can see how consistent I have been across all markets on here over the last five years + of posting on the blog. LINK.

However, my best returns, albeit from far fewer bets of course, come from the NFL, WTA and USPGA tours. My strike rate on american football over the last 15 years or so is staggering to be honest. Anyway, I digress, there is kind of a moral to this story.

Every August, once the UK domestic football season has, or is about to start, I turn my attention to the NFL and spend all my "spare" time for two or three weeks focused on that sport. I watch a little pre season, re read my notes from the previous year and watch highlights, read everything I can about what has happened during the off season . This year I did not have time and the situation was further complicated by the "lock out". I told myself that I had a good handle on things and that I would pick everything else up through the opening week or two.

Well, that didn't work out and I was angry with myself, not that I hadn't done the work, I seriously didn't have the time, but because I had tried to bet without doing my homework. I did not back a lot of losers, but they came in a sport where I normally win and the difference between, three or four losers, as opposed to the same number of winners is big at the end of the season. So I stopped for a few weeks, it was tough because I love the games so much, but over those weeks I watched around 40-50 hours of highlights from the opening weeks and worked really hard. What happened ? I returned to NFL betting on Thanksgiving Day and went three from three and have an 83% strike rate since that day, of course, that is a short sample, but it is not a coincidence. There are no shorts cuts in doing this ( sports betting), it is a job like any other, but hard work is almost always rewarded and as the saying goes, "the harder I work, the luckier I get".

Looking at those 5-6 years of stats I linked to earlier, you will see through the first two years I posted circa 1,000 units on the blog, around 500 through the next two and 225 units in 2010. Returns were fantastic over all five years, in 2012 I am probably going to break even from an even lower turnover.

I think it is worthwhile talking about this. With far fewer bets, I will probably have posted just 12% of my turnover from 2007 come the end of this month, variance is always likely to raise it's ugly head. Therefore, whereas four years ago I was posting virtually all of my selections on here, now it is just one in eight or nine and NEVER my strongest picks.

Over the long term and I am talking months and months, not weeks, that shouldn't make a huge amount of difference and I still feel that there is a lot to take from each preview posted. But with regard to results, it is kind of pot luck, I might put up eight selections over the weekend, seven could win, but the one I post on here lose, of course, the exact opposite could also be true.

My personal turnover is little changed from 2007, the only difference is the number of these matches/ events posted on the blog and the reasons behind this have been well documented previously.

I have previewed four matches in my daily notes today, two from the Champions League and a couple from the UK domestic football, with three red type selections and sent out copies to many of you this morning. Therefore, I will not be posting any on the blog today, but will definitely put a couple up before the end of the week. So please check back.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY ...

2011-12-04T14:56:00.002Z

Osasuna entertain Real Betis and I am always happy to back the hosts on home soil at odds against, facing all but the very strongest that La Liga has to offer, this season they are 3-3-0 and last season they were 7-6-1 as late as April, having lost only to Barcelona until then. Very few non top 4 teams have won here in the last three seasons and Betis, who have not win in nine certainly fall far short of that high level. The visitors will be without suspended captain Iriney and their coach Pepe Mel is under intense pressure and has supposedly been told that he is unlikely to remain in the job should Betis lose today. Mel is obviously low on confidence and openly stated that he believes he should be sacked, which is honest, but hardly the type of motivational speak you normally expect. Only Jonathan Pereira has scored for them in the last 561 minutes of football and they have only managed 3 goals in nine starts. Hosts are boosted by the return of several players including Jukka Raitala and Sergio Fernandez , which gives coach Jose Luis Mendilibar far more options today and I expect them to win. Osasuna -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line.

Into the NFL, we opposed the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day and they lost 27-15 to the Green Bay Packers, there was no shame in losing to the reigning Super Bowl champions, who are unbeaten this campaign, but they continually shot themselves in the foot with a number of costly penalties, one of which came courtesy of their star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who has since been suspended for two games and cannot play tonight, which is little short of a disaster against the very highly ranked New Orleans Saints offense. If that was bad ( and self inficted), they also suffered injuries to several other key players, not only might running back Kevin Smith miss out tonight and if he does play, it will be at less than 100%, but they have a treatment room full of "secondary" players, which means that Drew Brees will be able to almost throw at will to his receivers tonight. The Saints running game has been improving on a week by week basis which will keep the Lions "honest" and buoyed by a very impressive 49-24 defeat of the Giants last week and looking to retain their lead over Atlanta in the division and put some pressure on the 49ers for home field playoff advantage, I cannot see beyond a two touchdown win for New Orleans tonight. 1.5 units New Orleans Saints -9 points 2.03 Pinnacle/ Vegas Line.

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM THIS MORNING'S NOTES .....

2011-12-03T12:27:00.002Z

SATURDAY DECEMBER 3RD

Very pleasing day yesterday, on the football front, our "suggestion" Olympique Marseille won 2-1 and both red type selections eased home, Racing Club Lens taking the lead inside the first minute and eventually winning 3-0 and the Bastia- Sedan game producing four goals.

The golf continues to go well, Lee Westwood is in a tie for second in the Nedbank Challenge and in a group of seven players who are "getting away" from the other five, he is now trading much lower for a top three place, but it is Tiger Woods who is
the icing on this week's cake at the moment, he leads the Chevron World Challenge by three strokes from KJ Choi and Matt Kuchar after taming the Sherwood course yesterday and is now trading at circa 1.57. The potential seven point payout here is huge as it equates to circa 6 or 7 standard winners and the option to trade out for a huge profit ( at around 1.61) on the exchanges is there, if you wish. Both original previews are reproduced below.

Four football selections in this email one each from the EPL, Ligue 1, Championship and FA Cup and I will also be looking at three ,maybe four of QPR- WBA, Wigan- Arsenal, Blackpool-Reading or West Ham United- Burnley "in running " today, starting with the "pre match notes" at 14.15 UK time and followed by the half time update at 15.50.

OK, straight into the action and I will start with in the EPL and the match up between struggling Blackburn Rovers and Swansea City. The pressure continues to mount on home boss Steve Kean, there will be further protests aimed at both him and also the owners today and after putting all his eggs into this particular basket, by resting several of his "stars" for the Carling Cup quarter final at Cardiff City in midweek, a 2-0 loss in that game, means surely that is last chance time for him today. I do feel that if Rovers are going to win a match, it will have to be today, they travel to Sunderland next, for what will be Martin O 'Neill's home debut after taking charge this week of the North East club and then go to both Liverpool and Manchester United over the holiday, so it looks a case of now or never. They are helped in this cause by the visitors being without defender Angel Rangel and almost certainly striker Danny Graham, with Leroy Lita waiting in the wings to replace him. Kean is also set to be boosted by a few more options today, with the return of Samba, Salgado and Olsson, those along with the players rested in midweek are at least going to freshen up a team which is scoring quite freely and certainly has goals in them, but one which is incapable of keeping a clean sheet. They have not managed one in 17 competitive starts this season and with a severe lack of pace wide at the back, the speedy Nathan Dyer and Scott Sinclair have the potential to make it another long afternoon for the Rovers backline and in midfield they will miss the suspended N'Zonzi. I feel Rovers might do enough to win, but hard to see them doing so without conceding and with Swansea adopting a far more open approach against teams of a similar standing and intent recently( 2-2 A Wolves, 3-1 H Bolton, 1-3 A Norwich and 3-0 H WBA), I have to go with the "over" 2.5 goal option at 2.04 asian handicap.

I appear to have "lost" my notes for the next three games, so am typing these on the "hoof", so please bear with me. In the FA Cup, Gateshead, who did us a big favour in the last round, entertain fellow Conference side Tamworth, in the wide open spaces of the International Stadium. The Tynsiders are looking to reach the 3rd round of the competition for the first time in over 50 years and are very motivated to do so, as you might expect, they have turned into a real cup team in recent seasons and get really up for these fixtures. Locally they have been "bigging" the match up as huge, for not just the club, but the town and they have "massive" support from the local community.

These two clubs met here two months ago and played out a 1-1 draw, but that doesn't tell the full story, Gateshead were totally dominant and leading 1-0 when they lost not one, but both central defenders inside 15 minutes, with one of the replacements giving away the penalty which allowed the visitors to equalise. Home boss Ian Bogie said afterwards "we were so far ahead in terms of ability in the first half that it was like a practice game and we should have been two or three up ".

Reading all this reminded me that I had watched extended highlights of their match here last season which The Heed won 3-1. The hosts ran Tamworth ragged for 90 minutes and made full use of the strange ( by Conference standards) big pitch and surroundings, they scored three, it could have been eight, the visitors had terrible trouble defending crosses as they were getting so stretched by the hosts out wide. The recent match sounds very similar and given the desire for Gateshead to progress and their current form ( they are unbeaten in seven) and dominance in recent h2h meetings, I have to go with the home win. Gateshead -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line.

In the Championship, we have discussed ...... the rest of the email is restricted to subscribers to the daily service, please contact me for details ... stencelwade@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

BACK AT 14.15

written December 1st

The very prestigeous Nedbank Golf Challenge takes place at the Gary Player Country Club in Sun City and has seemingly attracted the usual quality 12 man field ,including three of the world's top four players, but half the field are without a win this year and/or lack experience, with only defending champion Lee Westwood and Anders Hansen returning from last year . Westwood coasted home by a stunning eight strokes in 2010, with Hansen 15 strokes adrift in a share of 9th place.

Key here is keep the ball in play off the tee and putt well, or at least avoid three putts, so a little course knowledge goes a very long way.

Westwood obviously has a great chance to repeat and his biggest rivals at first glance look to be world number one Luke Donald, number four Martin Kaymer and Masters champion Charl Schwartzel.

Donald's wife has just had their second child, he has not played golf for five weeks and his father died earlier this month, that is a roller coaster of a month, in addition to becoming world number one and winning both Money List's ! The only time he really undeperformed this year has been upon his return following a break and given all that and his decidely average record on the course, I have to let him pass.

Schwartzel is the only local golfer in the event and as such, will have massive support from the galleries, but is coming here following a very disappointing final day in the Omega Mission Hills World Cup, where he and partner Louis Oosthuizen, had a truly terrible sunday, when both played like amateurs and he has previously underperformed here, so, not for me.

Kaymer has very few peers in world golf on a going day and signalled a major return to form with a mindblowing final round of 63 to spreadeagle a world class field including seven of this week's rivals at the WGC-HSBC Champions event in Shanghai in early November and alongside partner Alex Cejka, tied for second in the World Cup on Sunday . However, he has never played here before and I have to feel that lack of experience might cost him this week and two trips to China inside a month, before arriving here, might also take their toll.

That leaves us with Westwood ,he hit 75% of greens and shot 21 birdies last year ,far and away the best in the field as you might imagine, he said that he likes his chances this week and proved his well being with a win in China last month, albeit against a weak field.

It is hard to see him out of contention and I will take him to finish in the top 25% of this 12 man line up. 1.5 units Lee Westwood top 3 finish 1.84 + on the exchanges, up to 1.87 offered.

This week Tiger Woods is hosting his own charitable event the Chevron World Challenge, from the Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California.

The event always attracts a high class field , but there is an argument this year that it is a little weaker than in 2010, with Luke Donald ,Rory McIlroy and several others, opting out. As you might expect, Tiger has a fine record here, winning four times, including three in four years between 2004-2007, he did not play in 08 or 09 , returning last year when he was in much worse shape than he currently appears and he lost out in a playoff to Graeme McDowell, the pair in turn four strokes clear of the field, under the circumstances, that was an incredible performance, even though he blew a big lead on the final day.

I very much doubt that we will ever see Woods dominate the game again, he is no longer feared by the other golfers and the younger players have only ever seen him struggle on the golf course, so that unbeatable "air" will never return, however, that doesn't mean that he cannot still win plenty of tournaments and you can argue that he is five strokes better here than anywhere else and I doubt any of this field can give him five shots on this golf course. His confidence is returning, he led the Australian Open late in the tournament and eventually finished third and played well tee to green all week in the Presidents Cup, also getting the putter going in the singles, where he took Aaron Baddeley to the cleaners ! He has only ever finished outside the top two here once in nine starts and the 1.88 for a top four finish on the exchanges looks very solid and I would not put anyone off going down that route, but I will be a little braver and take him to win..... 2 units Tiger Woods 4.50 exchanges/ 4.38 Pinnacle Sports.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

2011-12-02T13:38:00.004Z

In the Championship this evening, Crystal Palace host Derby County in match where they will kick off just about 38 hours after returning from Old Trafford , where they recorded a famous extra time victory over Manchester United. Regardless of the team United put out and they still fielded eight internationals, that was a very hard earned win for Palace, who did a lot of chasing and boss Dougie Freedman will have to rotate his own squad this evening. County lost again at home to Brighton on Tuesday night, but that 24 hours longer recovery time could still prove key, however, having documented Derby's problems ahead of that game I am loathe to pull the trigger on them tonight, despite the fact that it was an improved performance against B&H.

In Ligue 1, Olympique Marseille travel to Caen, ahead of a key Champions League match in Dortmund next midweek, however, in many ways this game is of equal importance and having beaten bitter rivals PSG 3-0 last week, they will not want to undo all that hard work, especially as those points, have got them firmly back in, at leas,t the hunt for CL spots for next season. There has been a clear upturn in performance for OM at least in the Ligue recently and they have targeted four very win-able games in the lead up to Christamas to get them back in the title race and come looking for all three points this evening. They have a good record here ( three wins and a draw in the last four) and this is a fixture which normally produces goals with the last eight h2h meetings averaging 3.88 . The visitors arrive without Remy and Morel, but Andre-Pierre Gignac has apologised to Didier Deschamps after a bust up between the pair and returns to the squad. But it is the return to form of Morgan Amalfitano, who really impressed against PSG and the return last week of Stephane Mbia that give them the energy and flair to dominate the centre of the park and with the hugely experienced Gregory Leca missing out for the hosts and that is a big loss, I expect OM to push on and win this. They have an incredible record with Mbia in the team, only losing three of 43 Ligue 1 starts and his is the first namee you should look for on the team sheet. Caen have already lost three home starts and conceded eight in their last four matches, more look on the cards this evening. Marseille -0.5 ball 2.05 +.

I have a trio of matches to discuss briefly in Ligue 2, leaders Clermont travel to Angers, where they have not won in eight visits (0-3-5), they seem sure to be a little jaded after their top of the table battle with Reims on Monday and it might be difficult to get "up" for another tough game so quickly afterwards, Angers have scored two or more in 6 of the last 7 h2h meetings and might need to do so again to get a result against a team who have got the winning habit. I have seen Angers "over" 1.5 goals at circa 2.60 and if that had been freely available, I would probably have put that up as a selection, especially with Clermont playmaker Alessandrini missing out, but it is not, so I will pass, interesting game though.

Regular readers know that I like ................. the rest of the notes and my main selections of the day,are not available to blog readers, sorry, I am hoping to be able to post a couple of match previews both tomorrow and sunday on here, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

UPDATE ....

2011-11-27T14:31:00.001Z

I have just sent the NFL update, please check your inbox.

Good Luck.

KING KENNY LOOKING TO KEEP TITLE RACE ALIVE ....

2011-11-27T10:13:00.003Z

Highlight today is probably the match at Anfield between Liverpool and Manchester City, the visitors could open up a huge seven point lead at the top of the EPL with a win, but it might be tough for them to come out firing after the hugely disappointing loss at Napoli in midweek.

On the back of their last Champions League defeat at Bayern they went to Blackburn Rovers the following weekend and were very sluggish for the opening hour, that might seem strange as they won 4-0, but all the goals came late and Rovers lack of ambition and attacking intent, allowed City to ease their way into the game, they will not have that option today.

Three points for the Reds would signal them as a major player for a Champions League spot and King Kenny will have his troops well and truly fired up this afternoon. Liverpool were the last team to defeat City, back in April since when the visitors are unbeaten in 15, winning their last seven in the EPL, in the CL we have seen another side of them and the home side, who won that earlier meeting 3-0 with all the goals coming early, will have been avidly eyeing up the wide open spaces that Napoli and Bayern found wide at the back of the City defence.

King K, got his tactics spot on at Stamford bridge last week in a 2-1 win, with Bellamy, Rodriguez and Suarez really haressing the Chelsea defenders, he was then not afraid to change things around during the game and made two major tactical changes, the last of which resulted in the late winner. Hosts are unbeaten in nine starts in all competitions and eyecatchingly in eight starts under Mr Liverpool, against City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea, fixtures for which Dalgleish lives for. Interesting to see if he uses Andy Carroll today, who scored two of the goals here in April, he will certainly be an option from the bench. Home win for me . Liverpool -0.25 ball 2.33 + asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY NOTES ..... GIVING THANKS !

2011-11-25T12:32:00.004Z

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 25TH

Let me start by giving thanks for Thanksgiving Day ! The Green Bay Packers won 27-12, Miami Dolphins comfortably held onto their 7 point handicap advantage and actually led until the last second of the game ( losing 19-20) and the Ravens saw off the 49ers 16-6, it was also fantastic to wake up this morning and find that John Senden had shot a low round of the tournament 64 to move up seventy places and into a share of 4th place (top ten selection) at the Australian PGA.

I have four matches to discuss today, but am personally keeping stakes on the small side, tomorrow and Sunday for that matter look to offer fantastic betting opportunities and I am planning two maximum ( two point selections), so want to keep most of my ammunition for then.

Before we get into today's action, for any poker players amongst you and I know that there are quite a few, Poker Tube have put up footage of the kickboxing match between Lex Veldhuis and Bertrand "Elky" Grospellier LINK , which is actually better than these events usually are, although there was only going to be one winner.

Let's start in Serie A where AS Roma travel to the Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese.The hosts had the chance to go top of the table last weekend, but underperformed in a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Parma, that was their third defeat in six starts in all competitions, although they remain a perfect 5-0-0 here in the league. They have another chance to to lead Serie A tonight, if only for 24 hours, facing a Roma side who are breathing down their neck in the table, one place back, albeit four points adrift, in 5th spot, the visitors will be equally as motivated not to let that gap to the top four increase and are finally starting to perform under Luis Enrique. In their five starts since the rather unlucky derby loss to Lazio, they have won three and suffered two very unfortunate losses, where they pretty much dominated most of the play, I detailed those ahead of the 2-0 win at Novara ( see below). They are without Francesco Totti tonight, but deep down I suspect Enrique is not too disappointed about that, his side seen to play better without Mr Roma nowadays and it is very tough to leave him out, so no decision to make is a "bonus". Roma have a fine record in the stadium, winning on four from six visits in Serie A, with five of those also going "over", they have scored in each of their last ten visits, notching three of more on four occasions.

Hosts like to play 3-5-2 and whilst Antonio Di Natale, who looks to be heading for a third straight domestic golden boot award, claims most of the headlines, it is the wingback pairing of Isla and Armero who work tirelessly up and down the flanks who really make them tick, if Roma can stifle most of this threat and Enrique is starting to see the fruition of the work he has done defensively in recent starts, they can get at the very least a share of the spoils tonight. AS Roma + 0.25 ball 1.97 asian line.

We discussed Port Vale's offensive problems briefly on Tuesday ( again, see below), when they lost 1-0 to Grimsby Town, as indicated then, I expect that match was given low priority, but the previous three starts were not and it is now heading for 400 minutes since they last hit the back of the net and these runs have a habit of getting under team's skin and are very difficult to shake off. Home boss Micky Adams has been a very busy man since the game against the Mariners and has brought in three players on loan, the Steveage duo of Guy Madjo and Jennison Myrie-Williams, plus Shane O'Connor from Ipswich Town. I am sure that they will do a job for Vale, but they will not have had time to train with the other players, who not only got back from Grimsby ( it is a long cross country journey) in the early hours of Wednesday morning, but were then ordered by Adams to be at training at 09.00 for not a single, but double training session ! I understand he wants to get a point across, but with another match less than 72 hours later and this, their third start in just six days, that seems madness ! If Vale cannot score, Torquay United cannot stop ! They have won five in a row, scoring 15 goals, with three or more in four of those, they are unbeaten in three visits to Vale Park, winning two and scoring two or more in each. Mood inside their camp is sky high and boss Martin Ling has got them buzzing after a slow start to their season. Torquay United level ball 2.0 + asian line.

In Ligue 2 in France, Guingamp could hardly .......the rest of my notes are censored, my two strongest "red type" selections today are for email readers only , sorry .

Good Luck.

Written November 5 :NOVARA- AS ROMA

Roma have slipped down to 13th place in Serie A on the back of two very unlucky defeats, first away to Genoa where they had 68% possession and won the attempts on goal count 17-9 and then at home to Milan (57% and 23-15) where visiting keeper Christian Abbiati was in inspired form and on another night, i Giallorossi would have scored five ! Despite their lowly position, they are only eight points behind leaders Juventus, but cannot afford to lose any further ground to them, or the rest of the chasing pack, therefore, the three points on offer this evening are absolutely essential. Roma coach Luis Enrique says his side are struggling to deal with set plays and have too little pace to trouble top defences, well, the first he should be able to deal with and the second shouldn't be too much of a problem here, as they are not facing one ! Novara are without a cleansheet in ten starts, or a win in six and look booked for a long season of struggle, in this, their first season in the top flight for 55 years. Roma simply have to win this, otherwise Enrique's excuses are going to fall on very deaf ears and with Lazio already in the top three, playing european football and having won the derby game, the maroon half of the Eternal City are not going to be happy. If they play half as well as they did against Genoa they should ease home. 1.5 units AS Roma -0.5 ball 2.05 +

Written November 22 :In the FA Cup replays, League 2 Port Vale travel to Conference side Grimsby Town really struggling for goals, they have not scored in 298 minutes and are missing four offensive players in Mark Richards ( top scorer), Ben Williamson, Lewis Haldane and Andrew Little. The visitors also have big doubts about key players Lee Collins and Doug Loft and coach Micky Adams has already indicated that he has one eye on FRIDAY'S league match against Torquay, that will be their third start in six days and is a more important fixture for the club who desperately crave promotion. Grimsby on a cold midweek night is not the easiest place to go and get a result and Vale will be in for a real battle and might not be up for that. Grimsby Town +0.25 ball 2.0 asian line.

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES .....

2011-11-17T20:48:00.003Z

A very quiet day in this part of the world, but it is very much the quiet before the storm, as we are back to normal over the weekend and I for one, will be glad to see the back of international football for the time being.

There are two quarter finals of the Copa Bridgestone Sudamaricana tonight, no bet for me, but a few words about the Libertad- LDU Quito fixture. Where the hosts trail 1-0 from the first leg, very few teams come away from the Ecuadorian capital with too much, but the Paraguayan champions will be kicking themselves that they conceded an injury time goal, after giving as good as they got for 90 minutes and having the better of the early chances.

It was even more galling as the goal came courtesy of a mis hit cross which sailed over the stranded keeper. I am a little surprised that Libertad were backed overnight from -0.5 1.97 down to 1.82, that now seems very short against a team with as much international experience and success as LDU, especially given that five of the home squad played for Paraguay at Chile on Monday night, one was on the bench, but four started and the three midfielders ( Aquino, Ayala, Samudio) played all 90 minutes, which was a huge blow to the Libertad coach, who has made his feelings known. Obviously each and everyone of these is a key player for the hosts.

Surprisingly, just two members of the LDU team were called up for Ecuador's home game with Peru, which was played in Quito and neither left the bench, so a clear advantage in that respect to the visitors tonight. These are two strong home teams, but Libertad have been done no favours by their own FA and the scheduling of this competition so close to the International fixtures. As I type, the line is now moving back the other way and the bigger quotes for LDU being taken, which makes much more sense. Anyway, no bet for me.

The NFL scheduler has also given a quick turnaround to the New York Jets and Broncos who meet in Denver tonight. The Jets will probably welcome such a quick return to action after losing what could turn out to be a divisional decider to the Patriots at the Meadowlands on Sunday, they were poor with a capital P in that game, quarterback Mark Sanchez had a very bad day at the office and coach Rex Ryan tried to boost his player's confidence by saying that the team have to give him more protection, instead of overly criticising Sanchez, which is good man management. The Jets now trail the Pats by a game and cannot afford to lose this one. Denver coach John Fox has recently bowed to pressure, benching quarterback Kyle Orton in favour of Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, who has posted three wins from four starts, but don't believe the bottom line, Tebow is far from the finished article and has looked way short of NFL standard at times in those games.

He is a fine athlete and his running skills can get him out of trouble, but that can only go on so long. He threw just 8 passes in the 17-10 win at Kansas over the weekend, completing just two ( admittedly one was for a touchdown), but with the injuries to Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee, the Broncos now have very few options on the ground, so Tebow will have to throw more and that spells DANGER. They tried this two games back in a 45-10 thumping by the Detroit Lions and Tebow spent more time on the ground than on two feet. He completed 18 of 39 attempts, was sacked seven times and turned the ball over seven times. Knowing that he will have to throw more again tonight the Jets must be licking their lips in anticipation and they would be my pick giving up the points, but I am saving my real ammunition for the weeeknd. NY Jets -6 points 2.02 Pinnacle/ Vegas line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

FROM FRIDAY/SATURDAY NOTES.....

2011-11-12T12:36:00.002Z

I want to say a few words about the Preston North End- Southend United game. I still feel that when everyone is fit, the hosts are a very good League 1 team, but they have had a terrible time with injuries and to lose Hume, Mellor and Proctor all at the same time has been a disaster, it is hard to play 4-3-3, when your front three are all missing ! North End defend from the front and these three put so much pressure on opponents that the system breaks down when they are absent. Phil Brown is further restricted today as on loan Jonathan Forte has been refused permission to play by Southampton. Confidence is a wonderful thing, but Preston who had it in spades two months ago, have now lost their's and are now without a win inside 90 minutes in nine starts and have conceded 27 goals in their last ten outings. United are full of confidence, riding high at the top of League 2, unbeaten in 12 with eleven wins, including six on the road, the last three without conceding. So, what do I think ? PNE will be much better in a couple of weeks and a team to follow when at least two of the big three are back, for now, United look big at circa 3.75.

I want to get one saturday selection out of the way early, so let's start today with that and it is the FA Cup tie between Maidenhead United and Aldershot Town, which will not surprise many of you ! We talked about United on Tuesday ( reproduced below, there is a theme going on here !) , when we opposed them with Dover Athletic, the visitors ran out very comfortable 4-1 winners, although the Magpies did put some pressure on in a 15 minute spell in the second half. I missed that having only stayed to watch the opening 45 minutes as I was passing the ground at that time and as I reported the next day, Dover had no problems getting in behind the home defence, which is really leaking goals. I appreciate that they were distracted by this big cup tie, which, after all, was one of my arguments for opposing them in midweek, but they are going to really struggle to keep the lively Aldershot front players at bay and I have to side with the visitors. The Shots will be without suspended goalkeeper Ross Worner, but replacement Jamie Young played in the first six games of the season and also when I saw them in pre season and I did not really notice him, so that is a compliment in itself. The Shots had a good run in the Carling Cup, but their league form suffered leading up to the huge game against Manchester United, but they seemed back on track with three wins in a row and ten goals scored, before the 2-0 loss with ten men at Rotherham last week. That was a bad day at the office, but it was all credit to them and their fitness levels, which are very high and something I touched upon in pre season, that they tried to take the game to the Millers two down and short one man. The pitch at York Road will be a little sticky and maybe even heavy and that should eventually play into the Shots hands, after they have weathered a bit of a storm from a fired up United. It is far from a trip into the unknown for Aldershot, who played here many times in their non league days, or especially for visiting boss Dean Holdsworth who had great joy here recently with his former club Newport County, around half the crowd ( 1,000) will be noisy Shots fans and I expect them to go home happy. Holdsworth is very ambitious and is on the radar of a lot of bigger clubs, he will not want a loss here on his CV so we can expect them to be equally as motivated as the hosts. 1.5 units Aldershot Town -0.75 asian line 2.0 .

I am going to start in the Blue Square South, where Maidenhead United host Dover Athletic, we discussed the visitors on Saturday (see below ) and they found a very late winner, not enough to win our bet, but it at least saved our stake. Athletic struggled to break down a very negative Weston team, who came for a point and were trying to waste time almost from the kick off. They are very unlikely to face a similar approach tonight, with United favouring an open style, especially here at York Road. The hosts are without a league win in two months and were 3-0 down at Eastleigh very early on saturday and not for the first time this season. They finally lost 4-1 and were defensively a bit of a shambles, with at least one of the backline playing out of position. That aside, the Magpies are very distracted by a big home FA Cup tie with Aldershot Town this weekend, they normally play home games in front of 250 people and will have a close to capacity crowd of around 10 times that and none of the players wants to miss out on their biggest game in years, especially with the chance to impress a league scout or two. Athletic are fully focused only on tonight's fixture and should have enough about them to collect the points. I have just been to the United ground ( it is around two miles from my home) to try and get some confirmed team news, but it is like the match tonight is not taking place, with only the Aldershot game receiving any attention. Dover Athletic -0.25 ball 1.90 asian line.

Good Luck.

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND SIR ..... AND MADAM !

2011-11-04T07:54:00.004Z

LEYTON ORIENT - HARTLEPOOL UNITED

I was originally VERY keen on Orient here, but just heard that Matt Spring and Kevin Lisbie both picked up injuries during last weekend’s 2-0 win at Rochdale and are rated by O’s boss Russell Slade as doubtful for the game. Neither has trained this week and with a growing injury list, the home side are down to the bare bones, they will still be able to put out a decent enough starting eleven, but the bench is very weak and leaves them very few options. This is a shame, as Hartlepool are in a real slump and missing key players of their own, these are very much two clubs heading in opposite directions and I would have loved to have side with the O's at odds against. Six weeks ago the East London club were bottom of the table, with just three points ( all draws) from a possible 30, whilst Pool were flying high and unbeaten in 4th spot, 16 points ahead of Orient. The visitors have since gone 1-0-5 and the hosts 4-2-0, the gap is down to just five points and four league places. This was not entirely unexpected, all season United have been making the most of very few attempts on goal and as I pointed out a couple of months back, sooner or later this was going to catch up with them. United have still only managed a division low 122 attempts on goal, with a paltry 48 on target.

Orient have some history of runs like this, last year they were 23rd with a 2-3-6 record in the first week of October, five months later they were on the playoff fringes, having gone 13-8-2 through the mid season, that equates to 94 points over the full term and would have seen them finish ahead of Southampton who are now on the verge of a return to the EPL. They finally missed out on the playoffs by a single point. I do not know if they "over train" in the off season,which leaves them "leggy" early in the campaign, but I have seen that happen year after year to certain teams, so something might be wrong, anyway, they are not a team I would want to oppose at present, Russell Slade has got them buzzing and playing with huge confidence. I will put this up in black type, but if either Spring or Lisbie made the line up,even the bench, I would make them a firm bet. Leyton Orient -0.5 ball 2.14 asian line.

ATHLETIC BILBAO - BARCELONA OK, we all know that it is definitely not a profitable policy to oppose Barcelona on even a semi-regular basis, but I have to chance a little on Athletic Bilbao at home getting such a huge handicap start. We have discussed Athletic several times recently ( two are reproduced below) and they are now unbeaten in nine starts, including a 1-0 win at Salzburg on Thursday night , where they replaced two of their young stars after taking the lead, with the weekend fixture clearly in mind. Last ten h2h meetings here have ended 1-4-5, with a 10-15 goal difference, which is probably as good as most against the best club side in world football, Barce have only posted one two goal victory in that sequence and three of the last six have ended all square. The Catalan giants have not exactly set La Liga alight on the road domestically, drawing at Valencia and Sociedad and winning by the minimum margin at Gijon and Granada and the 6.50 offered for the draw here is calling me like the song of the sirens.
However, I will play safe and take 1.25 units Athletic Bilbao +1.75 ball asian line 1.95 +, which is really a very attractive price IMO. It will be extremely interesting to see how Iker Munian fares in this, he was an unused substitute in both meetings with Barcelona last season and he will get a closer look at them on Sunday, should be fun !

Good Luck.

Thursday October 27th

One of those was Athletic Bilbao (see below) and I am going to start with their attractive home fixture with Atletico Madrid. They started on fire in the Osasuna game, racing into an early 3-0 lead and coasting home despite the visitors claiming an injury time consolation goal. Bilbao have subsequently continued their recovery with a draw at Mestalla and can move into the top eight with three points this evening. Wildly talented Iker Muniain scored in both matches and looks a player to build a franchise around. Now that coach Marcelo Bielsa has got his team up and running and signing from his hymn sheet, I do not want to rush to oppose Athletic, a top four push is certainly not out of the question, they were sixth last year anyway and it is hard to make a case for Valencia, Sevilla and especially Villarreal being stronger this time round. With a tough November ahead, including a visit from Barcelona and trip to Seville, they should be extra motivated for points tonight and at Gijon over the weekend and this looks a very good time to be playing Atletico, who are another potential rival for a high finish. The capital's second club started the season well enough, but a heavy loss to Barce appears to have knocked their confidence and they have lost their way, they are without a win in six, or a goal from open play in four starts ( they scored against Mallorca from the penalty spot), or of any kind on the road domestically. Star 40m euro striker Radamel Falcao has not been firing and is said to be struggling with gastroenteritis over recent days. Hosts will be without Carlos Gurpegi for several months, but the veteran midfielder has been a fringe player under Bielsa and I do not see this as the loss it would once have been. I have to stick with the hosts Athletic Bilabo -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

Bilbao: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Gabilondo, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez, Ibai , Ruiz and Galarreta.

Atletico: Courtois, Sergio Asenjo, Godín, Antonio López, Filipe Luis, Sìlvio, Álvaro Domínguez, Miranda, Mario Suárez, Salvio, Reyes, Arda Turan, Paulo Assunçao, Gabi, Koke, Diego, Adrián, Falcao and Pizzi.

Written Monday October 17th

In La Liga we have an interesting Basque derby game between Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna, hosts are the big power in the region and after seeing off Sociedad (another local rival) just before the international break, will be keen to follow up and do the double. I suspect they could have done without the break, as that was their first win of the campaign and it followed on from an impressive 2-0 defeat of big spending PSG in the Europa League. New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential. Fernando Llorente who has found his scoring boots recently, missed training twice last week, but is named in the squad and Bielsa has a habit of sometimes training strikers separately from the rest of the group in any case, so you can never be sure with him, I told you he was a one off ! You always get a tough physical challenge from Athletic and the visitors have really struggled here in recent seasons, not scoring in five visits and losing the last four. Osasuna are not great travellers at the best of times and probably still have nightmares about their recent 8-0 loss at Barcelona, where their goalkeeper was their star performer and they look a little fragile. Goals are always a problem for them, just five this season and only Gijon of the other top ten clubs scored fewer last season, defensively they are very short of numbers with four players out, two of whom (Raitala and Ruben) started in the last league game, when they conceded two at home to struggling Mallorca, the second when the visitors were already reduced to ten men. They have added Roversio to the squad, but he was said to be a big doubt a couple of days ago and including him, every available defensive player has travelled. I like this home win a lot, but am not madly keen on these Monday night home televised favourites, having said that, everything else looks in Athletic's favour and they desperately need a home win in the league, especially ahead of tougher games against Valencia and Atletico. Just one unit Athletic Bilbao -0.5 ball 1.86, but I might press this early in the game if signs are good and 2.0 + becomes available.

Bilbao :Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Gabilondo, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Gurpegi, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez y Ibai.
Osasuna :Andrés Fernández, Riesgo, Marc Bertrán, Damià, Lolo, Miguel Flaño, Roversio, Sergio, Annunziata, Cejudo, Lamah, Nekounam, Puñal, Raúl García, Timor, Ibrahima, Sola y Nino.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY ....

2011-11-01T19:09:00.001Z

I will send my first half notes by email, along with any selections, within a minute or two of the half time whistle.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST - READING

Overnight line: Forest -0.25 ball 2.07 -1.85 2.25 goals : 1.86- 2.04

Movement :Royals have been shaded into 1.81 and the "over" have drifted slightly.

Confirmed team news: Bit strange as Manset starts and Church drops to the bench, very strong bench for the Royals.Ishmael Miller misses out for Forest and is to have surgery.

Reading: Federici, Cummings, Mills, Pearce, Gorkss, Karacan, Leigertwood, McAnuff, Robson-Kanu, Le Fondre, Manset.
Subs: McCarthy, Harte, Kebe, Hunt, Church

Forest: Camp, Chambers(C), Morgan, Lynch, Cunningham, Gunter, Moussi, McGugan, Majewski, Tudgay, Findley.

Attempts on goal this season :135-147

Forest are 3-7-4 in the first half, conceding a league high 14 goals before the break. They have lost nine points from winning positions and lost four of the seven matches in which they have got in all square at the half.

Reading have yet to win a first half, which is hardly surprising with just the one goal scored before the break, going in with a 0-11-3 record, however, they have only gone on to lose two of those eleven draws.

Hosts lost their first game under new coach Steve Cotterill at the weekend, it will be interesting to see how they bounce back against the Royals who are unbeaten in eight. Hosts will have Guy Moussi back from suspension.

SOUTHAMPTON - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

Overnight line : Saints -1 ball 1.94-1.98 3 goal line : 1.83-2.07

Movement : Huge support for the Saints, down to 1.74 and it was lower earlier in the day, the "over" has been clipped accordingly but only by a minimal margin.

Confirmed team news:

Saints: Davis, Richardson, Fonte, Hooiveld, Harding, Chaplow, Hammond, Schneiderlin, Lallana, Guly, Lambert. Subs: Bialkowski, A. Martin, Cork, De Ridder, Connolly.

Peterborough: Jones, M. Lewis, Bennett, Zakuani, McCann, Rowe, Thompson, Kennedy, Frecklington, Tunnicliffe, Boyd, Taylor. Subs: J. Lewis, Ball, Sinclair, Thompson, Kearns.

Attempts on goal this season : 180 -194 ( Championship high)

Saints as you might expect for the league leaders are strong in the first half, with an 8-4-2 record, eventually winning all eight when leading at the break, they had a similar record last season and clearly not a side against whom you want to be chasing. Perhaps surprisingly, they have drawn a league high eight second half's.

Posh fans have seen a league high 24 goals before the break. Whilst Grant McCann has had the most of their many attempts on goal, close behind are George Boyd, who is also their main provider and Lee Tomlin, Boro play much better when both of these two start.

Visitors are without a cleansheet since I wore short trousers to school and have conceded 14 goals in their last six starts.

Hosts could open up a six point lead at teh top of the table tonight. Lee Tomlin misses out with the second match of his three game suspension.

It all points to Saints, but I have some doubts, but it will be tough for Posh without Tomlin.

WEST HAM UNITED - BRISTOL CITY

Overnight line: West Ham -1.25 ball 1.85-2.05 3 goal line : 2.08 - 1.82

Movement : City popular with the big handicap start, down to 1.93, goal line is unchanged.

Confirmed team news:

West Ham United: Green, O'Brien, Reid, Tomkins, McCartney, Faubert, Noble, Nolan, Sears, Piquionne, Baldock
Subs: Kurucz, Faye, Diop, Hall, Cole

Bristol City: James, Skuse, Fontaine, Nyatanga, McGivern, Cisse, Elliott, Kilkenny, Woolford, Adomah, Maynard
Subs: Gerken, Wilson, Bolasie, Clarkson, Pitman

Attempts on goal this season : 168-156 Almost 59 % of the City goalscoring attempts have come from just three players Adomah, Elliott and Maynard. For the Hammers, only Kevin Nolan (24) has had over 20 attempts and their threat is not so easy to pinpoint.

West Ham are an impressive 7-1-0 when leading at the half and the top two teams in the Championship, clearly know how to finish the job, once they get their noses in front. Hosts are 8-5-1 in the opening 45 mins, conceding a league low three goals in the process. However, they have actually only won three second half periods and one ( home to Portsmouth), which we watched was very fortunate. City have conceded a league high 19 goals after the break and have collect only two points from a possible 18 when going in at the half all square.

Bristol City striker Nicky Maynard scored an injury-time winner to beat Barnsley and give Derek McInnes his first win at the weekend and I am sure they would have liked a home game to build on that, instead a trip to East London and the highflying Hammers, however, Fat Sam's boys have looked vunerable here at times.

Good Luck.

FROM TODAY'S NEWSLETTER.. ....

2011-10-30T16:05:00.003Z

We have another two "neighbours" playing in Ligue 1 when Lille travel down the A23 to face Valenciennes in what visiting coach Rudi Garcia is describing as the "true" northern derby. He understands the significance of the match to supporters and especially his team, who with main title rivals/ Champions League rivals PSG, Montpellier, Lyon and Marseille already having posted wins this weekend, need three points to stay in touch.

Les Dogues have added a robustness to their game in recent campaigns and are no easy touch on the road any more, they have fallen behind in their last three away starts and gone on to win two, collecting seven points from the trio of games. Those results came against teams who had only previously lost a combined one home start in 14 and that is a very impressive stat. Both teams are carrying knocks and will make late decisions on key players, but Lille have far more options available to them and this looks to be the season when Valenciennes will struggle. They have a small budget, spent virtually nothing in the summer and have done terrifically well to remain in the top flight for five seasons, after coming up from the fourth division in five years, They have never lost an average of over 14 games each season in Ligue 1, with a mean finishing position of 13th and already in the drop zone this time round and looking to have regressed it is going to take a big effort to survive this time. Regardless of that, this is a huge game for Lille if they are to mount a title defence and I take them to win a hard fought battle.

1.5 units Lille -0.25 ball 1.94 asian line.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY .....

2011-10-30T12:26:00.002Z

Really unlucky to lose the Wigan Athletic bet yesterday, not much is going right for the Latics at present and after one key player failed a late fitness test, they lost Mohamed Diame after just 12 minutes, which forced them into a reshuffle. Despite that, they dominated possession (62%) and created far more chances ( 18-7) than Fulham and were denied twice by the woodwork. Once things start to go against you in football, it is very hard to turn things around and Athletic need something to go their way and quickly.

Goals continue to flow in the EPL, eight of the 97 matches played to date have produced six or more goals, but the really stunning fact is that Arsenal twice ( 8 and 4 conceded), Manchester United ( 6) and Chelsea ( 5), were on the receiving end of beatings in those games. In the last seven seasons this trio have conceded an average of 0.95, 0.74 and 0.66 goals per game respectively. This campaign, the big three clubs in english football over the last decade, have kept a clean sheet in all competitive games an average of once every three starts and United, in particular, have been very fortunate to register several of those. The Gunners defensive problems are well documented, I have been banging on about United's lack of a true defensive midfielder all season in my daily notes and Chelsea are in transition under Andre Villas-Boas. It is hard to see any let up in the entertainment and this looks a classic EPL season in the making.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

2011-10-29T10:11:00.002+01:00

In the EPL, I think Wigan Athletic are too big for the visit of Fulham, who are not a visitor to strike fear into any opponent,with just four road wins in 42 starts. They have not won in eight visits to the DW Stadium, posting a 0-5-3 record, last five have all been draws and a sixth would certainly not surprise, but off level ball, I feel the value is with the Latics. Hosts have lost six in a row, which is not much of a recommendation, but they were unlucky at unbeaten Newcastle United last week and have shown signs recently that they are about to turn the corner. Hugo Rodallega has returned to the team and the somewhat surprising news that he is busy negotiating a new contract, has given the club a boost this week, they were further buoyed by the return to training of Franco Di Santo and James McCarthy this week and both should play today.

Massive month ahead for Wigan and one that might well seal their top flight fate, with a series of very winnable matches against Fulham, Woves, Blackburn and Sunderland, it certainly gets harder after that with Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United to face in December. I am sure that Roberto Martinez will have his troops fired up today and they should certainly be fresh, with this only their 11th start in 76 days, Fulham have played their last eleven fixtures in 29 days fewer and in that sequence, have travelled to Poland and Denmark. They come into the match with some defensive problems, Aaron Hughes is out and a couple of others are carrying knocks, this is as easy as it is going to get for Wigan and a match they have to look to win if they are going to survive. Wigan Athletic level ball 2.23 asian line.

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

2011-10-27T23:06:00.002+01:00

Athletic Bilbao won 3-0 and my "red type" bet also won comfortably. I am a perfect six from six with these "official" bets this week, with an incredible 26 of the last 35 winning !

I have just put up a confident pick for Friday's action ( please check your inbox) and am planning to preview four matches for saturday ( two very strong picks). Please check back at the weekend when I will try to post something of interest on here.

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES .....

2011-10-27T13:34:00.003+01:00

Thursday October 27th

Finally ! The late goals have started to come the correct way, which of course, is in our favour ! Levante and Liverpool both found winners inside the final five minutes and kept up our 100% record ( five from five) for the new week, actually the last 34 "official"football selections have produced 25 winners.

One of those was Athletic Bilbao (see below) and I am going to start with their attractive home fixture with Atletico Madrid. They started on fire in the Osasuna game, racing into an early 3-0 lead and coasting home despite the visitors claiming an injury time consolation goal. Bilbao have subsequently continued their recovery with a draw at Mestalla and can move into the top eight with three points this evening. Wildly talented Iker Muniain scored in both matches and looks a player to build a franchise around. Now that coach Marcelo Bielsa has got his team up and running and signing from his hymn sheet, I do not want to rush to oppose Athletic, a top four push is certainly not out of the question, they were sixth last year anyway and it is hard to make a case for Valencia, Sevilla and especially Villarreal being stronger this time round. With a tough November ahead, including a visit from Barcelona and trip to Seville, they should be extra motivated for points tonight and at Gijon over the weekend and this looks a very good time to be playing Atletico, who are another potential rival for a high finish. The capital's second club started the season well enough, but a heavy loss to Barce appears to have knocked their confidence and they have lost their way, they are without a win in six, or a goal from open play in four starts ( they scored against Mallorca from the penalty spot), or of any kind on the road domestically. Star 40m euro striker Radamel Falcao has not been firing and is said to be struggling with gastroenteritis over recent days. Hosts will be without Carlos Gurpegi for several months, but the veteran midfielder has been a fringe player under Bielsa and I do not see this as the loss it would once have been. I have to stick with the hosts Athletic Bilabo -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

Bilbao: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Gabilondo, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez, Ibai , Ruiz and Galarreta.

Atletico: Courtois, Sergio Asenjo, Godín, Antonio López, Filipe Luis, Sìlvio, Álvaro Domínguez, Miranda, Mario Suárez, Salvio, Reyes, Arda Turan, Paulo Assunçao, Gabi, Koke, Diego, Adrián, Falcao and Pizzi.

In Serie A, a few words about ....... xxx xx xxxx sorry, my other two match previews and my sole red type selection of the day are only for readers of my daily notes.

Good Luck.

Written Monday October 17th

In La Liga we have an interesting Basque derby game between Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna, hosts are the big power in the region and after seeing off Sociedad (another local rival) just before the international break, will be keen to follow up and do the double. I suspect they could have done without the break, as that was their first win of the campaign and it followed on from an impressive 2-0 defeat of big spending PSG in the Europa League. New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential. Fernando Llorente who has found his scoring boots recently, missed training twice last week, but is named in the squad and Bielsa has a habit of sometimes training strikers separately from the rest of the group in any case, so you can never be sure with him, I told you he was a one off ! You always get a tough physical challenge from Athletic and the visitors have really struggled here in recent seasons, not scoring in five visits and losing the last four. Osasuna are not great travellers at the best of times and probably still have nightmares about their recent 8-0 loss at Barcelona, where their goalkeeper was their star performer and they look a little fragile. Goals are always a problem for them, just five this season and only Gijon of the other top ten clubs scored fewer last season, defensively they are very short of numbers with four players out, two of whom (Raitala and Ruben) started in the last league game, when they conceded two at home to struggling Mallorca, the second when the visitors were already reduced to ten men. They have added Roversio to the squad, but he was said to be a big doubt a couple of days ago and including him, every available defensive player has travelled. I like this home win a lot, but am not madly keen on these Monday night home televised favourites, having said that, everything else looks in Athletic's favour and they desperately need a home win in the league, especially ahead of tougher games against Valencia and Atletico. Just one unit Athletic Bilbao -0.5 ball 1.86, but I might press this early in the game if signs are good and 2.0 + becomes available.

Bilbao :Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Amorebieta, San José, David López, Iturraspe, Llorente, De Marcos, Gabilondo, Raúl, Susaeta, Iraola, Gurpegi, Muniain, Ander Herrera, Ekiza, Javi Martínez y Ibai.

Osasuna :Andrés Fernández, Riesgo, Marc Bertrán, Damià, Lolo, Miguel Flaño, Roversio, Sergio, Annunziata, Cejudo, Lamah, Nekounam, Puñal, Raúl García, Timor, Ibrahima, Sola y Nino.

SUNDAY .....

2011-10-23T11:05:00.002+01:00

I put up three early selections yesterday, two won, the other I posted on here ! That is the problem playing lucky dip !

Not going to waste anyone's time today, I have previewed five matches in my daily notes, putting up three "red type" bets, one strong, at odds of 2.12, 2.14 and 3.25, but am unable to post any on here, so no point in checking back. I do have just one bet planned for tomorrow ( Monday), but that is a maximum ( two point) selection, so cannot post that either, but please take a look back here on Tuesday, when there is a full lower league programme in England.

Fantastic sporting action today, we have just had the Rugby World Cup final ( not really my cup of tea) , up next are some very enticing EPL fixtures, with the Manchester derby taking pride of place. Later in the day the NFL, featuring the now traditional Wembley match and the last official event on the PGA Tour, something for everyone !

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

2011-10-22T10:25:00.002+01:00

"Only" one of my two selections won yesterday, but the pair still produced a 26.6% profit overall and being 8 from 9 on the week is not too bad ! I eventually previewed three matches today and am going to cover another three "in running", which basically means "Pre Match Notes" and a "Half Time Update". Most of you know the form they take, the first is meant to give us a guide to finding a good "in play" situation, the second is a round up on how the first half has played out and the best available bets at half time. The last four of these bets have won, but the real beauty of following these matches so closely, is that we get to know the teams so well and they lead to a lot of future winners. 90% of the matches covered are from the Championship, where I think we have a big edge over the oddsmakers.

Anyway, that is an explanation for those of you that come across my notes for these type of games and I have included a few of you on the mailing list for today. For the rest, just the one selection at present ....

Starting from the top, if Bolton Wanderers- Sunderland can ever be described in that way ! Hosts did us a big favour last week and will definitely be looking to follow up today against a fellow struggler, with the pair separated only by goal difference, albeit a big one given Wanderers dire defensive record. The Black Cats were big spenders in the summer, with only the "Big 5" or the big six sans Tottenham investing more and they will be disappointed with their lowly position. Visiting boss Steve Bruce has had the dreaded vote of confidence and assurance that his job is safe, we all know what that means, safe until the next defeat ! At times his side have shown real potential, like in the 4-0 defeat of Stoke City and the away games at Arsenal ( for thirty minutes) and Anfield when they opened up in the second half. They will be happier here facing an opponent they have beaten in the last four h2h meetings and they have lost only two of their last eight trips to the Reebok, Bruce will also be able to call upon Phil Bardsley after suspension and Nicklas Bendtner who was inelligible to play against the Gunners, he seems sure to go with a more adventurous line up today, after receiving criticism for his formation last week. I expect both teams to go for the win and that we will see goals, all of Bolton's league starts have gone "over", at an average of 4.25 goals and they have not kept a clean sheet since the opening day of the season. Sunderland's last five have all produced at least three goals and early strikes have been a feature with their last four games, seeing five inside the opening 11 minutes, Bolton opened the scoring last week in the 4th minute and conceded in the 2nd minute at home to Chelsea the previous game, so certainly don't rule out plenty of early action. 1.5 units "Over" 2.5 goals 1.97 + asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY .....

2011-10-21T08:23:00.003+01:00

None of the selections below were posted on the blog, but I did send out 73 free copies of my daily notes each midweek day this week to long term readers of the blog and I have gone a perfect 7 from 7 with "official selections" so far. They have received another email with two selections today, after which, they are on their own ! As that is a reasonably large percentage of my regular readership, I feel ok about talking about the results.

I have a big weekend planned with four early previews, including a double stake ( maximum) selection , in addition to covering three matches in "running", where I am also four from four in the last seven days ! I will do my best to post something on the blog preview wise over the weekend, so please check back before 15.00 ( UK time) tomorrow.

THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN !

These are the ONLY red type ( official) selections given this week.

MONDAY Athletic Bilbao -0.5 ball 1.86. WON 3-1

TUESDAY 1.5 units Fleetwood Town -0.75 ball asian line 2.06. WON 4-1
Ajax level ball 2.20 asian line. WON 2-0
Crystal Palace -0.25 2.06 asian line. WON 1-0

WEDNESDAY Arsenal +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line. WON 1-0

THURSDAY 1.5 units LA Galaxy -0.75 1.76 asian line. WON 1-0
FC Twente -0.5 ball 2.06 + there is some 2.10 on offer if you shop around. WON 4-1

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY ....

2011-10-18T19:18:00.002+01:00

I put up two selections this morning and am also covering another two matches "in running", I am at the Reading match myself, but here are my pre match notes from the other fixture...

Crystal Palace - Bristol City

Overnight lines: Palace -0.5 ball 1.96- 1.96 2.5 goals 1.96- 1.94

Movement: Markets virtually unchanged

Confirmed Team News: Crystal Palace: 1.Julian Speroni i, 2.Nathaniel Clyne , 3. David Wright, 5.Patrick McCarthy , 6. Anthony Gardner, 7.Darren Ambrose 11 Sean Scannell, 15. Mile Jedinak, 16. Wilfried Zaha, 17. Glenn Murray, 38. Peter Ramage Subs: 34. Lewis Price, 4. Jonathan Parr, 8. Kagisho Dikgacoi, 19. Jermaine Easter, 20. Jonathan Williams................. Darren Ambrose returns to the starting eleven.

Bristol City: 1. David James, 5. Lewin Nyatanga, 7. Louis Carey, 8. Neil Kilkenny, 10. Nicky Maynard, 14. Cole Skuse, 20. Jamal Campbell-Ryce, 21. Kalifa Cisse, 27. Albert Adomah, 35. Damien Stewart, 36. Ryan McGivern

Subs: 22. Dean Gerken, 2. Jordan Spence, 12. Ryan Taylor, 18. James Wilson, 34. Brett Pitman .......Not quite so adventurous tonight for City

It will be interesting to see how City line up tonight, under their caretaker boss they went 4-3-3 at home to Peterborough United at the weekend, with Adomah, Maynard and Pitman up front. That almost paid off with the Robins dominating the first half against a lacklustre Posh, but as we discussed at the break then, they had expended a lot of energy and they have lost a lot of second half's this season. Two very good goals from the excellent Boyd and Tomlin secured the points for the visitors. To be fair, the Robins didn't give up this time and scored a late consolation goal.

Palace did us a favour at Watford on Saturday and the Eagles are playing at a pretty high level at present and three points tonight, could very well see them move into the playoff spots. They have a tough month ahead with games against Ipswich Town, Reading, Cardiff City and Leicester City, so will be greedibly eyeing the three "easier" points on offer this evening. Latest in the production line of young talent at the South London club is Wilfried Zaha, the 18 yo who already has 60 appearances under his belt and a whole host of bigger clubs watching him, scored a wonderful goal on saturday and the EPL scouts will be out in force tonight. Dougie Freedman has assembled a very nicely balanced squad at Selhurst Park, with a pleasing mix of youth and experience, they play with a lot of energy and could go really well this season.

Both teams have drawn five of their eleven first half's, but City have failed to go on and win a single one of those and they have collected only six points in the second half table, as opposed to 17 for their hosts, 73% of the goals that City have conceded have come after the break and 9 of their last 14 after the 73rd minute. City are without a win in 9, have only won one of three in which they have led at the half and lost all three in which they have trailed.

Palace are one of only three teams to gain 7 points from losing positions, taking four of them from the two games in which they have trailed at half time. However, when they have gone in ahead, they are an odd looking 2-0-2, one of those losses came on the opening day at Peterborough and the other at Elland Road, where they led Leeds United for 50 minutes. Having also led twice recently against the Hammers, you could easily see them having another 4-5 points on board already and pushing Saints for the lead at the top of the table. This is a team far from the finished article, but clearly moving in the right direction . I will update both games at half time ( BY EMAIL), along with any betting opportunities.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

2011-10-16T09:38:00.003+01:00

Bolton Wanderers won 3-1 yesterday and Ipswich Town took a point , despite Cardiff City being backed off the boards, I can only think that one of the big asian syndicates were backing the Welsh club, but this time it just meant bigger odds for my selection and I had to bet again ..... which was nice ! I am not going to post any football or NFL bets on here today, going to save them for regulars, but there are some notes taken from today's email below.

Whenever you get the chance to see my notes and you all do at times, please read them carefully, as I always say, they are about so much more than the basic selection and it only takes a couple of minutes each day. For example, on Monday, I wrotes those few lines at the very foot of this post about Trevor Immelman, he traded at 340.0 to win earlier this week and is now circa 7.0 !

Most people are too lazy to do a little bit of research, even if I have already done most of the hard work for them, they are "only interested in the red type". Or the "good stuff" as someone recently said to me in an email, he couldn't be more wrong, the "good stuff" is everything between the date and the "good luck" sign off.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 16TH

Decent day on the football yesterday with six of the seven selections winning, but I want to get straight into today's events and will start with the McGladrey Classic, where Webb Simpson is still hanging around the top of the leaderboard and certainly looks likely to claim enough prize money to pass Luke Donald in the Money List. Good news is that Donald has entered the Disney event for next week, that doesn't mean he will definitely play, but he can if he wants to and has shown an intent.

I feel that Simpson will feel a little pressure today and will be thinking as much about the Money List as he will winning the tournament and it could affect his game. He has been paired today with Trevor Immelman, whom I discussed last Sunday and Monday (see below ) and who shot a course record 62 yesterday. Whilst it is very hard to go ultra low two days running in golf, the South African tends to hold his form very well and is driving the ball and putting like a dream. We have already talked about his form in Round 4 and I only wish I had taken my own advice and backed him this week ! Pinnacle have priced him at 2.47 to beat Simpson with the tie no bet option, elsewhere he is as big as 2.625 with the tie, both quotes are WAY too big IMO and the match is more of a toss up in my book.

This is just for advice, but the Top 125 players on Tour after next week who have not already got an exemption, will retain their playing cards for next season, the rest risk being out of a job, at least such a high paying one, so there is huge incentive for these players to do well today, especially those on or around the "bubble". Here are three to keep an eye on 15.32 two ball Billy Mayfair 1.91 to beat Bio KIm, 15.05 two ball Stephen Ames 2.10 to beat Henrik Stenson, 16.26 two ball DJ Trahan 2.50 to beat Lucas Glover.All times are UK as always on the email, Mayfair is an old experienced pro who is a proven winner and currently projected just outside the promised land at 128, he will be looking to improve on his current position here of 33 and is a solid Round 4 player, ranked 22nd this season. Trahan is currently 127 and is actually ranked 46 places higher for Sunday scoring than major winner Lucas Glover. Ames is another long in the tooth gritty competitor, from a family of gritty competitors, he needs a very solid round to improve upon his current projected 137 and looks big to beat the talented Swedish player who has lost his way and is ranked 178 on Tour for Round 4 scoring, which is 127 spots below the Trinidadian Ames. Anyway, three very motivated golfers to keep an eye on.

The early football games xxx xxx x xxxx the rest of the notes are only for subscribers

Good Luck.

Written 09/10
I must admit to be tempted by Pinnacle's pairing of Tiger Woods and Trevor Immelman in the Frys.com, two golfers who have had huge problems off the course in recent years, with the big difference being that the South African's have not been self inflicted.
Consecutive rounds of 68 are a big improvement for Woods but he has to do a lot more to convince me that he has finally exorcised his demons, or even really started on the long road back. On thursday he putted poorly, but the flat stick has saved him the last two days, when he has been very wayward off the tee and also with his irons at times, of course you could argue that it is all close to coming together, but I am not so sure. He is ranked outside the top 70 off the tee and to me this is worrying, as he is not even trying to hit the ball a long way, being way down distance wise. Immelman withdrew in Boston recently following a death in his extended family, but returned at the Justin Timberlake and shot a very promising 67-67-69-69 for a high finish and his 70-69-70 this week offers further encouragement that the 2008 Masters champion is finally over the illness problems that have plaqued him for the best part of four years. He has shot 67 , 68, 69 the last four rounds he has played on Sunday on Tour and Immelman seems sure to give anyone looking to take on bad boy Tiger, a good run for their money at a tasty looking 2.63 with the tie no bet option.

Written 10/10
We really have to keep an eye on Immelman, he looks fit for the first time in several years and the former major winner is still only 31 years old and only just about to enter his peak playing years. He has entered the McGladrey Classic this week and might be fired up by returning to Georgia, the state where he won the Masters. He has now played eight solid rounds in a row and more importantly, gone low in Round 4 the last four times he has played on Sunday shooting 67 , 68, 69, 66 with one of those rounds in a Grand slam event. The US season is winding down, but there are plenty of worldwide events left and he looks a winner about to happen, we have to keep on the right side of the South African.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ....

2011-10-15T09:56:00.002+01:00

In the EPL, I cannot really let the early kick off between Liverpool and Manchester United go without comment, this match is huge and could blow the title race wide open. Steven Gerrard looks set to make his return and first league start in seven months, what a match for a comeback ( !) and who knows how Wayne Rooney is going to respond following the massive disappointment of his three match international ban, where once again UEFA have decided to make an example of english players/clubs, if Rooney was German, Italian or French ( definitely French) he would have received a one match ban for sure. Michel Platini loves the english ! Anyway, glad to get that off my chest !

Definitely think Liverpool should be a small favourite here, they have had much the best of recent meetings and this is their biggest league fixture of the year and King Kenny will have the troops well and truly fired up. Pool have won the last three meetings here and six of the last eight h2h have gone "over", with a few being blown wide open. Given the way that United are playing this season and I touched upon that yesterday, hosts are going to get chances and probably quite a few, they are also struggle to keep a clean sheet, just one in seven and it is difficult not to see both scoring. I see some minimal value in the home team off level ball at odds against, but given the likelyhood of both scoring, also like the over 3.5 goals option at 3.40 on the excahnges for small money, or how about the 2-2 draw @ 17.0 ? No bet for me, as this is one of the few games we do not need a financial involvement to really enjoy.

The relegation six pointer and yes, even seven games into the new season it already looks like one, between Wigan Athletic and Bolton Wanderers, is a far more attractive betting medium IMO. The visitors are bottom of the pile and have suffered a couple of hammerings, but have suffered terribly from injuries/ suspensions and a dire schedule which has already seen them play, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and both Manchester clubs ! That is as tough as it could possibly be and they have had no chance to build on an opening day win at QPR, when they returned home from the capital buoyed by a 4-0 win and oblivious to what was around the corner. They have done better on the road, in addition to that win there was another at Villa Park in the League Cup and given their lack of attacking options at times, they have been happier not to have to make the running. However, today they have Ivan Klasnic ( top scorer) and David Wheater back from suspension and striker Gael Kakuta available once again and Owen Coyle will be delighted to have increased options. A win will take his team off the bottom and they have a terrific record in this series, being unbeaten in seven h2h meetings and only conceding once in four short trips to the DW Stadium where their supporters travel in big numbers. I feel the two week break will have done them a lot of good and I am sure that Coyle will have been working extra hard on dead ball situations. Athletic have really struggled to defend these, conceding from high balls into the box against Spurs, Villa and Everton in recent starts and Bolton are stronger than at least two of those in that department. Wigan have Crusat and Gohari back today, but are still without Hugo Rodallega, he is a big loss and they have not won in his absence. 1.5 units Bolton Wanderers +0.25 ball 1.87 asian line.

Into the Championship and a few words about Cardiff City- Ipswich Town, I could see the rugby World Cup semi final having some bearing on this, the match is huge in Wales, beyond huge and if they lose this morning, the mood here will be a little sombre, of course it could have the opposite effect if they win, but I see it as more of a potential negative than positive. We have discussed both recently, backing Town at home to Coventry ( 3-0) and at West Ham, where they recorded a famous 1-0 win, they have now taken ten points from four starts and in that sequence played, the Hammers, Middlesbrough and Brighton, three of the strongest teams in the second tier. They like playing City and have won the last five h2h meetings, including three in a row here. I talked about the quality in the squad ahead of the Coventry game ( reproduced below) and all those players have steeped up to the plate and listening to the Brighton game on the radio, I was taken by the way the match commentator ( a neutral) twice said that Town would be promoted, not might be, would be, which for a mid table team is a little odd, but a guide to the quality they have in their ranks. Michael Chopra has hit form now, with two fanatstic goals in his last start and had previously had very little luck, he is a top top striker at this level and will be keen to impress returning to his former club. Gestede and Earnshaw give City more options up front but Kenny Miller seems likely to miss out. Ipswich Town +0.25 ball 2.17 asian line.

Good luck.

written 19/09

I only want to discuss the Championship televised game between Ipswich Town and Coventry City today. It is incredible that Town have struggled so badly this season, they have some quality players, maybe a couple a little long in the tooth, but vast experience and a squad including Mark Kennedy, Lee Bowyer, Keith Andrews, Carlos Edwards, Ibrahima Sonko, Jimmy Bullard, Michael Chopra, Jason Scotland, Nathan Ellington, Ivar Ingimarsson , Daryl Murhy and Jay Emmanuel - Thomas etc, should not be hanging around at the wrong end of the division. Kennedy and Ingimarsson are available today which will give Paul Jewell even more options and his club will have really benefitted from the nine day break ahead of this televised game. Jewell arranged a training ground match with Gillingham last week and the Kent team brought some youngsters, along with 3-4 first teamers and were thumped 8-1 by a very experienced Town eleven. The Gills were probably not happy about that, but it appears not to have done them any harm, as three travelled with the first team to Hereford United at the weekend and won 6-1 ! In the friendly, Nathan Ellington scored a hat- trick and missed at least four good chances before the first went in, JET also scored and those two will be looking to put pressure on the current favoured starting front pairing of Chopra and Murphy, with Scotland also desperate to start. These strikers, along with Tamas Priskin, who has been told he is surplus to requirements ( you can understand why), have a mountain of Championship goals between them, enough to have won three titles and with so much competition, should be scoring for fun.

Instead Town have been conceding for "fun",but with Ingimarsson having played the full 90 minutes against Gillingham, he should slot in right alongside Sonko, the pair must have played 200 times together at previous clubs ( Brentford and Reading) and are good friends. This will make them far more solid and we can surely expect Ipswich to improve greatly over the coming months, they go to leaders Middlesbrough at the weekend, so will want the points tonight.

There are normally goals when these two meet, last 18 meetings home and away have seen both score in every single gamewhich is amazing, 15 of those have ended "over", including the last seven at Portman Road, with four of those producing at least four goals. Last ten starts here have seen seven home wins, one road victory and an average of 3.5 goals. City finally got a league win at home to Derby County last time out, thanks somewhat to some odd decisions from the match officials, which Nigel Clough was still complaining about several days later. They are struggling on and off the pitch and really are opponents that Paul Jewell's team should be defeating with the minimum of fuss. I am going to put up two bets.....

1.5 units Ipswich Town -0.5 ball 2.14 + asian line.

1 unit "over" 2.75 goals 2.21 asian line.

SUNDAY ....

2011-10-09T17:11:00.004+01:00

I sent out some 20 freebie copies of my notes for today this morning, they included the three football matches below. Falkirk won 3-0, Notts County who are 1-0 up at the break and the draw was denied by a goal in the 95th minute of the match ! Ouch !

For now it is football only and I will start with the Serie B game between Empoli and Varese. We talked about the hosts ahead of their midweek Tuscany derby meeting with Livorno ( see foot of email) and the possible new coach effect, Giuseppe Pillon got an immediate response from his players and was especially pleased with the cleansheet in a 0-0 draw. The visitors had not played in Serie B for 25 years, before promotion the season before last and nearly forced another promotion after only losing out in the play offs on their return, that would have been a fourth promotion in five years after being in the Eccellenza league ( 6th tier) as recently as 2005 following bankruptcy. That would have possibly been one promotion too much and this is likely to be a key season in the always difficult second season following promotion, when the glow of success has worn off. Goals never flow freely for them, just 51 last year with the three clubs ahead of them all scoring at least ten more and teh situation was compounded in the summer with the loss of several key players, including top scorer Ebagua who joined Torino and both full backs. They did win 2-0 at struggling and winless Vicenza in midweek, but that doubled their goal tally ( just two in seven previously) for the season and they meet a far more robust opponent today. The home side and especially Pillon will want to build on the point at a big rival on his home debut, but it will not be easy with four players still away on international duty and Coppola and Ficagna both unavailable after leaving the game with inuries on wednesday, the natural replacement for Ficagna is also missing. Varese tight defensively, but with few goals are also missing three players, so two teams who will both be looking to build on midweek results might easily cancel each other out. If Empoli were at or close to full strength I would be firmly in their camp, but as things stand, I see all the value in the draw. Empoli- Varese draw 3.0 + .... there is some 3.10 on offer.

In Scotland, we have the semi finals of the Challenge Cup and tiny Annan Athletic, who come from a town of only 8,000 people are expecting to break attendance records today, with the visit of Falkirk. Hosts only got into the league in 2008, but are sitting proudly atop Division 3 this morning and have got to this stage, by playing teams really struggling in their division, previous round was a "big" scalp for them winning at First Division Ayr United, but their hosts had other priorities and rested a lot of players. Falkirk will not do that today, with no immediate other distractions and a proud record in this competition, which they almost always take seriously and have won a record three times. Their supporters are also travelling in huge numbers and are likely to make up at least 60% of the crowd at the very homely stadium. The visitors are expected to put in a big promotion push back to the SPL this year and look a class apart from Annan, both in terms of personnel and resources. We might see some goals here, as both are missing starting defenders, but for me their can be only one winner, despite Athletic's fantastic form this season, the gulf is big IMO. Falkirk's only loss in eleven came recently at Morton, but that was understandable, soming as it did just a few days after a famous 3-2 defeat of Glasgow Rangers in the League Cup, they have since recorded a very nice win at strong Hamilton and should be finely tuned after a free midweek. Odds for them are a little skinny at circa 1.72 but that would be my pick, however, in running might be a more attractive option. The Bairns have scored 19 in their last eight starts, but only one has come inside the first 39 minutes, which is incredible and that was scored in the 17th minute. Therefore, they are bound to trade bigger "in play" and will not panic if the early breakthrough doesn't come..... as it rarely does for them !

In League 1 Notts County host Hartlepool United. I am not getting overly involved, but County were only interested in this game as I advised in midweek and you can forget the JPT loss to ten man Chesterfield. Home boss Martin Allen loves the television cameras and will have his troops pumped up for this. These are two evenly matched teams, but I believe the hosts have more potential, even though Allen is a little tactically naive IMO and rarely has a Plan B. United have really overachieved so far, they are unbeaten on the road with a 3-2 record, but committed highway robbery in collecting four points from trips to MK Dons and Bournemouth, in the first they scored with their only two attempts at goal and were battered senseless for 90 minutes ! They got a real thumping here last season, losing 3-0, it could have been five ( !) and the performance that day still rankles with the coach, especially as they came into the game on the back of seven wins in eight starts and full of confidence. They lost their unbeaten record last week and it will be interesting to see how they respond. In January they were 0-2-5 with a 2-17 goal difference on the back of that loss here and Mick Wadsworth will be looking for a much better response. If pushed... Notts County -0.5 ball 2.02 asian line.

A little later today, I sent a follow up email with a solid bet for tonight's NFL and this for the PGA golf .....

I must admit to be tempted by Pinnacle's pairing of Tiger Woods and Trevor Immelman in the Frys.com, two golfers who have had huge problems off the course in recent years, with the big difference being that the South African's have not been self inflicted.

Consecutive rounds of 68 are a big improvement for Woods but he has to do a lot more to convince me that he has finally exorcised his demons, or even really started on the long road back. On thursday he putted poorly, but the flat stick has saved him the last two days, when he has been very wayward off the tee and also with his irons at times, of course you could argue that it is all close to coming together, but I am not so sure. He is ranked outside the top 70 off the tee and to me this is worrying, as he is not even trying to hit the ball a long way, being way down distance wise. Immelman withdrew in Boston recently following a death in his extended family, but returned at the Justin Timberlake and shot a very promising 67-67-69-69 for a high finish and his 70-69-70 this week offers further encouragement that the 2008 Masters champion is finally over the illness problems that have plaqued him for the best part of four years. He has shot 67 , 68, 69 the last four rounds he has played on Sunday on Tour and Immelman seems sure to give anyone looking to take on bad boy Tiger, a good run for their money at a tasty looking 2.63 with the tie no bet option.

I think the outright market is a little more interesting, Briny Baird leads on -13, two shots clear of Paul Casey and Ernie Els, with Hadwin, Wi, Molder and Cauley on -10, Rollins -9 and the field at -8 or worse. Casey ( he of the Popeye forearms) and Els are proven worldwide winners sandwiched between a whole host of non winners. Baird has banked circa $12m in prize money but has now played 374 Tour events without a win and he must have had a very sleepless night. Casey has only won once in the US in 2009, but has had some problems since, however, he is a 13 time winner around the world, twice already this year, including in South Korea last week, which was a big confidence boost. He hit a fantastic run of form last Fall, finishing 2-4-6-3 on his last four starts on US soil. He is -7 for his last 22 holes here, with no dropped shots and must go close today. He feels he was "trying too hard" with the putter yesetrday and didn't take advantage of the chances he had, but holed a nice putt on the last when he "just relaxed" and hit the ball.

Ernie is a 57 time winner around the world and normally starts and finishes the season strongly, he has not forgotten how to win and has improved his finishing position 75% of times when starting the final round inside the top 5 in the last 18 months. Now that he is back with long time caddie Ricci Roberts he looks far more comfortable, the two have been together on and off for two decades and I feel Els needs him on the bag. Roberts said yesterday "Tee to green, he hits the ball better than any guy out here,'' "If he putted like some of these youngsters, he'd be winning six or seven tournaments a year. He's been patient this week and just hung in there. Probably left a few out there." Ernie has worked incredibly hard on his game in recent months and it is finally starting to fall into place, he said "I changed a lot of things and feel that the work I've put in is starting to come through. I'm starting to feel comfortable on the things I've been working on. I think the FedEx race [he made it to the third tournament, the BMW Championship] was good for my game. I kind of scraped through, and I had a lot of pressure on me and my game. You're just trying to survive. So I feel that's helped me, and then obviously the work. I don't think you forget how to win.'' If he holes a couple of putts today, it will take a very good performance from one of the others to stop him.

Casey, Els and Baird will all play together in a three ball, which IMO only increases the pressure on the non winner. Casey is 4.80 on the exchanges, Els 5.50, that equates to combined odds of 2.56 for either to win and looks good value. Two proven winners who both hit form at this time of year, one with a recent victory to his name, the other very hungry and with an old friend back in his camp.... sounds OK to me ( and I make it a 1.5 unit selection). To win the same on both selections at those quotes, you would need to invest 46% of your stake on Els and 54% on Casey.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

SATURDAY ......

2011-10-08T06:48:00.004+01:00

I have previewed three matches today, putting up two strong ( including one maximum) selections, the one below is not either of those, but still a bet I like.

In League 1 the home form of Sheffield Wednesday has probably kept Gary Megson in employment, they are a perfect 5-0-0 at Hillsborough, but have struggled on their travels, conceding twelve goals in six starts, which is in stark contrast.

Some teams have come here and froze this season, (that is understandable, it is a famous stadium and Wednesday a very big, well suppoted club) a couple of others, like Scunthorpe United and Notts County were just downright unfortunate. Today, Chesterfield, who did us a big favour in midweek, try their luck in this "derby" game, only 12 miles of the A61 separate the two teams and supporters of the Spirites are travelling in huge numbers, with well over 3,000 tickets already sold . This is a very big day for the visitors and especially their manager John Sheridan, who spent seven years as a player with the Owls and I think they can get a result.

After winning League 2 with a degree of comfort last season, it has taken Field a little time to come to terms with life at the higher level and also the loss of 23 goal top scorer Craig Davies in the summer. But there have been a few signs recently and a couple of very encouraging results, that indicate an upper mid table finish and maybe even a playoff push are not totally out of the question. I think this pair have over and under achieved respectively so far this campaign and expect them to be a lot closer together in terms of league position in say two months time.

The visitors already hold the upper hand in the attempts on goal table, having 115 as opposed to Wednesday's 93, that is exactly two per game more and adds support to my belief that results for these two clubs are going to even out in the coming weeks. I am not a great fan of Megson and will be surprised if he is still in charge in the New Year, Sheridan, as a favourite son of Wednesday and the scorer of the winning goal the last time they won a major trophy, would be one of the main contenders to replace him and this is a big opportunity for him and his team to put themselves in the shop window.

Chesterfield +0.75 asian line 1.98. Both teams are missing key defenders and a few goals would not surprise me, the" over" 3.5 option is available at 3.0 and is a good cover with both teams having goals in them.

Good Luck.

contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

TUESDAY ....

2011-10-04T12:55:00.002+01:00

The Johnstone's Paint Trophy takes centre stage tonight and the key here is to read between the lines.
Unlike in the past, clubs are forced to name "strong" line ups, with at least six players who started the last league game, or, who are regular first team players. That still leaves plenty of room to manoeuvre of course, but with the threat of a £5000 fine for non compliance, clubs are very guarded in what they say. So you almost always read that "they are motivated to do well", "see this as a chance to get to Wembley" etc etc. Normally the teams that are more focused and I don't believe that anyone really is through the early rounds, are those that are fairly sure that they are in for a mid table campaign,or those that are very strong, pushing for the title, but secure that a run in this competition is not going to cost them promotion.

Swindon Town have taken this competition quite seriously in recent years , but having just missed out on promotion in the first of those and been relegated in the second, I wonder how motivated they will be tonight ? They have only really put in one road performance this season and that came at Crawley Town, who were in the middle of an injury crisis and in poor form at the time. Paulo di Canio has said he wants to go to Wembley, but we have already spoken about that. His team simply have to get promotion, or at least go very close this season and I think they could do without involvement in this. Looking at the league table, you could also say the same about League 1 strugglers Exeter City, but after five games without a win they finally broke their duck at the weekend and surely boss Paul Tisdale (pictured in his normal cap and scarf, we might see the cap tonight, scarf is unlikely) will want to keep the momentum up.

We spoke about the Grecians quite a lot earlier in the season and how they were good enough box to box, but had no strikers due to injuries and lack of investment in the summer and were toothless up front. They were waiting for the loan market to open up and the treatment room to clear and then, for these players to gel, well, they have five strikers now and Bauza, Nardiello and Whichelow do have a touch of class. They started well at home to Oldham on saturday, like they have in several recent games, but the difference this time was that the goal came and with it, the confidence returned, they scored a second and then chose to sit on their lead. That was understandable, as it was desperately needed, it did allow the visitors back into things somewhat, but the clean sheet was also fantastic for the mood at the club and having reached the Area Final in this last year, I think they will be up for the tie tonight. Exeter City -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line.

Southend United are top of League 2 and have won their last four with a 1o-0 goal difference, the last two against big promotion rivals Rotherham and Shrewsbury by a combined 7-0, it is hard to be more impressive than that. Huge credit to boss Paul Sturrock who has done miracles in his 14-15 months in charge, about two weeks before the start of last season he had no registered players. His squad is in good shape, with only two long term injuries, he will rotate his eleven, giving the league trip to Crewe priority over tonight's "derby" fixture with Dagenham. But there is now huge competition for places and those coming in, Hall, Sturrock ( junior) and especially Bilel Mohsni, who was the clubs saviour before quality players like Neil Harris and Liam Dickenson were brought in, will be very hungry to impress and win a starting place back. Their supporters will travel in force for tonight, they had 800 in this competition travel to Barnet last year at the same stage ( won 3-1) and are in much better form now. Over 1,000 are expected to make the very short journey, which is likely to give them over half the crowd and United will not want to disappoint such support and it can make a huge difference at games like this. Support, competition for places and momentum to keep up and build upon, off level ball I have to take the Shrimpers. Southend level ball 2.06 asian line.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .... written 13.30

2011-10-02T15:32:00.001+01:00

In Ligue 1, Marseille can almost forget a run at a Champions League spot this season if they do not beat Stade Brest today. They already trail four teams by a minimum ten points and really need to close that gap. They travel to Toulouse after the break, never an easy place to go and only have one more home start in October. With six points in the Champions League group to their name and buoyed by a fine, but far from flawless 3-0 defeat of the German Champions in midweek, they can fully focus on beating the small club from Brittany who have never won in the Velodrome. OM won this match up 3-0 last season and that was just five short months ago. The visitors have yet to win this season ( six draws from eight starts) , or even score on the road and with a host of injuries and very short of options at the back, with five of the ten defenders registered at the club unavailable today. I have to side with OM.

1.5 units Marseille -1.5 goals 2.17 asian line.

Good Luck.

Contact : stencelwade@btinternet.com

ALL GOOD THINGS HAVE TO COME TO AN END .....

2011-09-30T10:10:00.003+01:00

My beloved Brentford are in a strange run at present, collecting one point from three home starts, dominating one ( which they could have won by 5-6 goals !) and being comprehensively outplayed in the other two, yet winning four in a row on the road !

This weekend they look to get the home "hoodoo" off their back, when Huddersfield Town come calling. The Terriers have not tasted defeat in the league for an incredible 35 matches, they last lost at Southampton on December 28th 2010 and it would be typical of my club, that they would choose this game to suddenly "turn it on" at Griffin Park, the "theatre of sleepless nights".

Town have won 19 ( drawn 16) in this run, that averages out to 96 points over a full season, a total which would have seen them promoted in any season and as champions in each of the last six seasons, going back to 2004-5 when Luton Town ( whatever happened to them ?) came within a whisker of breaking the magical 100 point barrier.

Having lost out in the playoff final last season, to miss out this time round is going to be very hard to take and I have to say that they deserve promotion, but I wonder how they will react when they finally do lose one ! Hopefully we will find out after this weekend !

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

FRIDAY ....

2011-09-30T09:48:00.003+01:00

I know I have already told many of you how ( very) impressed I was by Preston North End at Griffin Park, whilst they were not as good on Tuesday at Wycombe Wanderers, that was their 7th league win in a row.

The victory was all the more notable as it was their four trip to London or beyond ( Charlton, Wycombe , Brentford and Southampton) in just 14 days, with a home start also sandwiched inbetween, really terrific commitment and if there is a better team in the division than Phil Brown's troops ( which I doubt), then hopefully it is Brentford when everyone is fit !

Incredibly, North End are back in the capital tomorrow to play Leyton Orient, despite their class, surely they are starting to feel the effect of such a gruelling couple of weeks, when they have seen more of the M6 than wives/ partners. They will have clocked up an amazing 50+ motorway hours and six matches in 18 days come saturday evening !

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

2011-09-28T13:29:00.003+01:00

Wednesday September 28th

Wins for Jeonbuk and Ipswich Town our two main ( red type)bets and also Inter and Lyon in the Champions League at big prices, made for a good day yesterday and when a late, late "ding" came in the Pompey- Posh fixture, I thought it was going to be 5 from 5, but unfortunately it came in favour of the visitors.

I watched a very interesting Football League game last night, but will save my thoughts on that until the weekend.

In the Champions League, we all know how good Porto are, but I feel the oddsmakers have ( once again) under estimated Zenit St Petersburg. Long time readers will know that I have a very soft spot for the Russian club having taken huge odds for them to win the UEFA Cup in 2008, but I am trying to put sentiment to one side for now. The Portugese champions already have three points in the bag and with consecutive games against APOEL up next, I am pretty sure that they would take a point from this here and now. They had a tough game with Benfica on friday evening and look set to go with the same line up tonight, they call it 4-3-3, but Fernando plays directly in front of his back line. Either way we are going to see a crowded midfield with home boss Luciano Spalleti claiming a 4-3-1-2 but it is really a slight variation on the 4-6-0 formation he used with great success at Roma. It is going to be similar to the Porto- Shakhtar line up on matchday 1, which the hosts won 2-1, much of the game was played out in midfield, but eventually Donetsk were too unwilling to change formation, which Porto did to some degree and then ill discipline cost SD dearly, with far too many fouls being conceded. Spalleti is far more flexible and open to tactical changes and is likely to be more pro active. He will have spent plenty of time talking to Bruno Alves his hugely experienced defender, who spent 12 years at Porto as man and boy until last year and knows the club almost as well as any man alive. He will not play tonight, but his knowledge will be invaluable, Semak and Malafeev are both big doubts, but the keeper might still make it. Fredy Guarin is suspended for Porto. After losing in Cyprus, where they were perhaps too defensive, Zenit cannot afford another defeat and getting them off level ball, when Porto do not need the win, is something of a no brainer for me, especially at the odds offered. Zenit St Petersburg level ball asian line.... this was a bet for me at 2.20, but odds have tumbled this morning, so I have to leave it in black type .

In the Championship, I am again going ............

Please take a moment to read the "Freebie list" box on the left hand side of the blog.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com

SUNDAY ............

2011-09-25T14:27:00.003+01:00

Only four rounds into the season, we already have a massive relegation battle at the foot of La Liga, with Sporting Gijon entertaining Racing Santander. Two home draws give the visitors a two point lead over the pointless hosts, who, with a visit from Barcelona and trip to Sevilla up next, simply have to get off the mark today. Their home form has kept them in the top flight in each of the last three seasons and it will require a similar effort this time round if they are to survive and that means finding 7-8 wins at the El Molinón stadium from somewhere and they will not come much easier than this.

Both teams have suffered an identical 4-0 defeat at Atletico in the last seven days and whilst Racing might argue that they steadied the ship with a 0-0 draw at home to Real Madrid, two games in four days against the two big Madrid clubs in which they enjoyed less than 30% possession is sure to leave them low on energy coming here, especially as they are short on numbers, mainly in midfield, where they lack any real creative threat. They have conceded ten in their last three road starts and it is hard to see them keeping even this struggling Gijon side out for too long. Home coach Manuel Preciado has pretty much a full squad to choose from, he claims the spirit in the club is still good and there can be no excuses if they do not win tonight, they have created a decent number of chances in their two home starts so far and I expect them to do enough to win ,what is sure to be a nervous encounter.Sporting Gijon -0.5 2.04 + asian line

In the NFL, I have two games to discuss.

The New York Jets play the first of three consecutive road games, but with the Ravens and Patriots the next two games, they will see a visit to the West Coast to face the Oakland Raiders as far and away the easier fixture of the three and if they can go to Baltimore with a 3-0 record, it will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the road trip. They will have to manage it without center Nick Mangold, who will be replaced by rookie Colin Baxter, this is a very big loss, but has already been factored into the spread and we would have been asked to give up more points IMO if Mangold had played. The Jets are 16-7 on the road under coach Rex Ryan and will arguably be fresher that the Raiders who travelled to NY State and back last week to face Buffalo, following only five and a half day's of preparation, having played on Monday on Gameday 1, that is a gruelling start. They might have ran out of steam there, they certainly blew a big lead with the Bills scoring a touchdown on all five second half drives, which is about as bad / good as it gets. The run has been good for the Raiders so far, but the Jets pride themselves on been able to stop teams running ( they have allowed only one 100yd game in 25 starts) and if they do that today, there can be only one winner IMO. Jets have won two without getting their own running game going, but with Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield that will not carry on indefinitely and with Oakland ranked 27th in stopping the run in the opening two games and having given up a huge 316 yards on the ground the last time the two met ( Jets 38-0), they are as likely to catch fire today as at anytime. Jets all the way for me. New York Jets -3 points Pinnacle Sports 2.05.

First crunch game for XXXX XX XXXX rest of the email is for registered readers.

Good Luck.

Contact: stencelwade@btinternet.com