DIVISION 1 ...........

BRENTFORD - WALSALL

I discussed the Bees in midweek (with subscribers), they scored five and whilst they did not play particularly well in the first half, it is hard to quibble with that and I assessed that game pretty well, he added modestly !

Brentford have been very busy in the loan market since then, signing two classy and tall ( this is important as the Bees have a lack of height in the team and have been conceding from set plays) youngsters from Arsenal and Ipswich. The keeper who is just 19 is held in very high regard and made his full debut for Poland in midweek. That makes three of the home side who were on international duty and gives some indication of how far the Bees have come in the last 18 months, when they can bring players of quality to the club, albeit only on a temporary basis.

What people tend to forget, is that quality loan signings can also help the regular players at the club. Even these young loanees bring with them a degree of knowledge, most of them have trained with the first team and are being brought along in the right manner, playing with them on a daily basis can only be of benefit.

I think that the Bees will keep the momentum up and see off this Walsall side who are well coached, but create relatively few chances, something I also discussed recently. John Bostock will return to the home side again, he is a 17 yo of almost limitless potential, was the youngest player ever to make his debut for Crystal Palace aged fifteen and was then "poached " by Tottenham amid much controversy. He has been allowed to come to the Bees on a loan deal, which might be extended, to gain match experience, he is two footed, which means he can play almost anywhere across the middle and set Division 1 on fire last week with two goals against a very solid Millwall defence on his debut, one directly from a corner. He was the best player on the pitch by a country mile land will probably be so again.

He can be backed at big odds with William Hill to score and also massive odds to get another two or more, this might be unlikely but I feel we will never see these odds again, so why not try a little.

Bostock is an example of what I meant by these youngsters being so more advanced than their lower league counterparts. I accept that he might be an exception, but he is very experienced and advanced for his years and was extremely composed in his post match interviews last week, where he impressed me greatly, as much as he had done on the pitch, hopefully some of this will rub off on the Bees own up and coming players.

6 points Brentford -1/4 ball 1.90 asian line

1.5 points Bostock to score anytime 4.50 William Hill

0.75 points Bostock to score twice 21.0 William Hill.

0.25 points Bostock to score a hat trick 67.0 William Hill.

Good Luck.

BLUE MOON OVER ANFIELD ..............

LIVERPOOL - MANCHESTER CITY

Hard not to see goals in this one, each has managed just a single clean sheet in ten starts and I expect both to score today, something that can be backed at 1.75 in places. That looks a good solid shout in my opinion, or even the "over" option, but I am going for a more speculative bet and will take City to score twice.

Sooner or later it will click for the visitors and with Liverpool already having conceded twice at home to Lyon, Birmingham and Villa, I see no reason why City cannot do likewise, regardless of the final result. Those three sides all get forward quickly and City also have bags of pace up front and it is difficult for me to see them not having a deal of joy against a pedestrian defence, who are starting to make getting caught out of position, into something of an art form. Sky Blue heaven for City fans, unless they mange to concede three !

4 points Manchester City to score two or more goals 3.20 general quote.

Back later.

SATURDAY .............

I had a very bad day on Wednesday, to be honest it was long overdue, but is still a shock to the system when it comes . Took the next day off, but that had less to do with "discipline" than the fact that there were only 3-4 matches worldwide ! Pleased to say that I bounced back with a profit yesterday and I will be looking to continue the comeback at the business end of the week.

Bit short of time overnight so my four match previews were very brief, might try to pad a couple of them out a little before posting on here, but I want to watch three games today, including one live, so time is not really on my side. Anyway, please check back later.

Good Luck.

FIFA WORLD CUP .............

EGYPT - ALGERIA

This playoff takes place in Sudan and perhaps surprisingly, the locals are said to be supporting Algeria, but I do not believe that makes much difference at all and with the tickets being snapped up in minutes, I suspect that the majority were picked up by supporters of the two nations and with over two million Egyptians living in Sudan, they probably have the bulk.

This game is taking place because the two could not be seperated on points, or goal difference, after six group games, Egypt needed to win 2-0 in the home game with their bitter rivals at the weekend and after taking an early lead, had to wait until the 96th minute to find the all important second. The match was played in an extremely tense atmosphere, there is very little love lost between these two, the visiting team bus was attacked on the way to the satdium and things are unlikely to be much calmer tonight.

The reigning Aftrican Champions surely have the upper hand after such a recent and vital win, especially given that the home coach said that was about as bad as his team could play. His midfield was certainly off their game, but will be helped in that regard by the team news tonight, which allows him more options with Shawki and Hosni fit to return to the squad, whilst his counterpart must do without midfielder Lemmouchia and keeper Gaouaoui, who are both suspended. This gives a firm advantage to the Pharaohs IMO, who have handled similar pressure well in recent ACN championships and I think the odds are fair enough.

5 points Egypt -1/2 ball 2.02 asian line.

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA- PORTUGAL

Portugal hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg and will doubtless try to protect that. Bosnia have promised to take the game to the visitors and "attack like famished wolves", they are certainly a side with goals in them, most of their talent lies in going forward and they struggle to keep cleansheets. They will be severly handicapped by suspensions to Spahic, Muratovic and Rahimic, which will limit their defensive options still further and I believe they will simply go for it sooner rather than later, this could be suicide of course and even without Ronaldo, the Portugese have enough talent to carve B&H open on the break. The visitors are at their best and happiest when they do not have to make all the running and surely we will see goals this time, which is normally the case in Zenica, with the five group games here averaging 4.8 goals.

5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line.

Good Luck.

MONDAY .....

Very quiet day betting wise today, the international fixtures have once again played havoc with our favourite pastime and many of us are looking forward to a return to normality at the weekend, when the major european leagues restart .

Having said that, I remain in excellent form , with six winners from just eight selections last week on the email service. That makes six winning weeks in a row, during which I have given 65 selections, 40 of which have won, giving a 61.54% strike rate and making almost 93 points profit, that is about as good as it gets, regardless of what other sites might tell you. Whilst there is only limited output on here, I hope that you have still done well over this period and I will continue to post previews on the blog whenever circumstances allow.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..........

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 14TH

Three selections today, just brief comments I am afraid, but I am keen on all three, especially xxxxxx, however, I have reduced stakes slightly as the weather is very bad in the UK, with heavy rain and high winds and it is impossible to know which games might be affected.

ENGLAND

DIVISION 1

BRISTOL ROVERS - CARLISLE UNITED

Unless the weather takes a big hand here, it is very hard to see this game not producing goals. Carlisle appeared in my stats round up earlier in the week, they create a lot of chances and have done so all season, even when they were struggling earlier in the campaign. Now those chances are turning into goals, with ten in their last four starts and their last five games have averaged 3.8 goals. Their confidence is high and they will take the game to Rovers and arepeat of their 3-2 win here last season is not out of the question and there are certainly far worse 33-1 shots out there.

Hosts were expected to suffer a backlash this season following the loss of Rickie Lambert to Southampton, but started their year on fire and were pushing for a top four place, however, there has now been a levelling off and results have nosedived, they have lost six in a row and conceded an enormous 18 goals in the progress, two or more in each of those games.

Hard to see the hosts keeping a cleansheet and this seems certain to develop into a shootout.

6 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.85 asian line.

1 point "over" 4.5 goals circa 5.50 general quote.

DIVISION 2

The rest of the email is for subscribers to the email service.......

Good Luck.

FOOTBALL LEAGUE STATS ..........

Briefly, here are a few stats which might help you in the battle against the oddsmakers. Regular readers will know that I am keen on the attempts on goal stats and feel that they are a good starting point in an attempt to find future winners/potential improvers and just as importantly, teams that have been overachieving.

In the Championship QPR have been impressing many observers, including me and they are certainly racking up the chances, creating a division high 230 and hitting the woodwork eleven times. WBA are in second spot, which is as you might expect, but keep an eye on Ipswich Town, who are surely better than the league table suggests. They are third in the attempts on goal table and no team have managed more shots on target. Key marksman at the moment is Nicky Maynard of Bristol City with an incredible 34 attempts on target, they might struggle when he is missing.

Few surprises in Division 1, with champions elect Leeds also running away with this table, they have created 242 attempts on goal, no other team has more than 188 and Walsall are really struggling to create, with just 100 , 9.5 per game fewer than United. Carlisle have been near the top of this table all season, they remain in fifth, with only Leeds and the three relegated clubs above them. They are on a four match unbeaten run, scoring ten goals and I think there is more improvement to come from them. Swindon are on the playoff fringes, but are hovering around the relegation zone in this table and goals are obviously going to be a problem for them this season, they have failed to score in three of their last five starts and it is easy to understand why.

Jermaine Beckford has 71 attempts on his own which will surpise no one, keep an eye on Rickie Lambert who is now settlled at Southampton, he has 45 and the woodwork has thwarted him four times. He is not simply a goalscorer and has a number of assists to his name, I can see him and Saints having a big 2010.

In Division 2 Notts County and Crewe lead the way, Alex create so many chances, that they are ideal to follow in the "overs" market and can always be considered against almost anyone if the price is right, no draws for them this season either, so ideal for a straight win bet . I pointed out earlier in the season that Barnet were creating little and not much as changed in that regard, they seem a little short of playoff quality to me. The woodwork has not been kind to one or two in this division, especially Port Vale who have managed to hit the post or bar, a Football League high 13 times, unlucky for them ! They are on a long unbeaten run and maybe the draws will turn into wins, once the woodwork stops getting in the way.

Key player for leaders Bournemouth is Brett Pittman, who has 73 attempts on his own, just 45 less than the entire Barnet squad. They will do well to hold on to the 21yo, who has some spectacular goals to his name, in the transfer window.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ..........

It as a pity that Stoke couldn't hold on to their lead on Sunday, but the match at Upton Park went "over" and no damage was done. I remain in very good form and since October 22nd I have sent subscribers to the email service 19 winners from 26 selections, to be honest, most of these were easy winners and nearly all the losers led, or were unlucky, so it is not even true to say that we have been riding our good fortune.

That is a strike rate of over 73%, but you will see that it is "only"around ten selections per week. I changed my approach for subscribers a couple of months ago and have been giving far fewer selections, the benefits of this are clear for all to see. I am not giving this as a sales pitch, there are no available slots for new subscribers in any case, infact, there is a waiting list. Just trying to explain how difficult it is now for me to post more than two or three match previews on the blog per week, when I am only operating from a base of ten selections and subcribers are paying for those.

Today, I have just one selection and it is rated "very strong" so I will not be posting that on here, but I will put some stats on the blog in the next 24 hours which I am certain will help you pinpoint some future winners, so please check those out.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .......... BROWN'S MEN IN FOR ANOTHER TANNING ......

Brief notes about two of today's EPL games, Chelsea-Manchester United takes centre stage of course, but I guess that all of you will have your own views on that one......

ENGLAND

PREMIER LEAGUE

HULL CITY - STOKE CITY

These are two clubs which have gone very different ways in 2009, during the calender year, Hull have collected a meagre 16 points and Stoke, who now look a secure EPL side over two and a half times more, with 41 , that is almost a point a game more.

The mood at the two clubs is, as you might expect completely different too, the visitors are cock a hoop after winning at Spurs and fancy their chances against almost any non top 4 (5) side and even facing one of those at the Brittania. Hull take the field expecting to lose, boss Phil Brown is on his way out of the club, everyone knows that, but the board seem unable to take the decision and allow him more time to work on the tan. The team are under enormous pressure, they have not scored in 292 minutes of football and Geovanni, who has scored four of their last six goals is suspended today.

Stoke have spent wisely and have a strong, closely knit squad, such is their strength in depth now, that big money summer signing Huth, who returns from suspension today, might have to wait his turn on the bench. These are options that Brown simply doesn't have. The visitors have collected just four point less than Aston Villa in 2009, the Villans are considered a top six or seven side and people would be falling over themselves to back them here at circa 2.60 and I feel Stoke are a good value price.

6 points Stoke -1/4 ball 2.23 asian line.

WEST HAM UNITED- EVERTON

Both teams are struggling and have striker problems today, which is why the "over" odds have drifted, however, I view things a little differently and still expect to see goals today. It is defensively that these two have really lost their way, the visitors are without a clean sheet in eight starts and looked lost at times in the home defeat to Benfica on Thursday. West Ham were given the run around by Aston Villa in midweek, but managed to claim three much needed points, but they have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last eight starts. H2h wise this is a fixture which normally produces action aplenty and Everton have scored two or more on four of their last five visits to East London. I am sure that both managers will be greedily eyeing up the three points and will surely go for it, David Moyes might well have Saha, Heitinga and Neill back in the team today and if so, they would be my idea of the more likely winners, but the "over" looks a much stronger bet, especially given the odds.

6 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.12 asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ..........

ENGLAND..... CHAMPIONSHIP

DERBY COUNTY-COVENTRY CITY

I must admit that I am surprised by how poor Derby have been this season, when I expected them to at least challenge for a playoff spot. Nigel Clough has been in charge at the club for exactly ten months and I for one, thought that he would have turned them around by now. Admittedly his side have really struggled with injuries this season and there have been one or two recent signs that they are about to turn the corner and I fancy them to get a much needed win on Friday evening in this Midlands derby.

Clough's first win as coach came in this fixture back in January, which gives him and his team positive mental memories and facing a team struggling just as badly recently, they should be able to put that to good use. City have a very small squad and have also had a crowded treatment room, goals have been very hard to come by with just one in 360 + minutes of football and that came in a game where they were already 2-0 down.

Huge boost for County with the return of Dean Leacock, Jay McEveley and especially key striker Rob Hulse, who likes to play against City, scoring in both games last season. The home faithful will again turn out in huge numbers for this televised fixture and I feel we will see a return to form for County and a much bettter 2010 in prospect for them.

6.5 points Derby County -1/4 ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.

ENGLAND ..............CHAMPIONSHIP

QPR- CRYSTAL PALACE

The weather remains pretty dismal in the UK and underfoot conditions will not be ideal for two sides that like to try and play football. I rate both of these better than the league table suggests and expect both to be knocking on the playoff door at least, especially Rangers. H2h meetings are traditionally very close and I feel both will start very cautiously this evening, Palace will be happy to keep things tight as the visiting side, against such a strong home team and QPR will be nervous after their terrific run came to an end on Friday night, with a loss to a physical Leicester City side, who knocked them out of their stride.

Hosts have kept an incredible 13 clean sheets in 15 first half starts and Palace have gone in level at the break in 8 of their last 11 games, only trailing in one of those. Given those stats and the prevailing conditions, I see the half time draw as offering terrific value.

6.5 points Half Time draw 2.20 + exchanges.

Good Luck.

NFL .........

It has not been possible for me to post any NFL selections on here this season, like on soccer, our core sport, I have been far more selective with bets this season and games previewed for subscribers to the email service. This has paid off handsomely, with six winning bets from just seven selections, a 86% strike rate, however, it leaves me with little opportunity to post anything on the blog, which I know has disappointed several of you. In addition, I have given one outright bet (reproduced below), the Saints are now favourites in almost every list at around 4.0 (3-1) making the 25-1 we bet at, available only in dreams.

There will not be any previews on the blog today, I only sent subscribers one (very big) bet so obviously that will not be possible to post, so until next week........

Good Luck.

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH

NFL

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - DETROIT LIONS

I do not normally like to give up such big handicap starts this early in the season, when many teams are happy just to record a win, but there appears to be a huge gulf in class between these two and in a couple of weeks time, this line would probably be three touchdowns and not two.

Saints have a terrific offense and scored a NFL high 463 points last year, they have brought in defensive guru Gregg Williams to tighten things up on the other side, where they will be far more aggressive this year. If they can get the two to both work, another trip to the Championship game (at least) is on the cards. Quarterback Drew Brees is telling anyone who will listen, that he is a firm believer and said "We all see this window of opportunity that we have and know we don't get many chances like this. We feel like it's our time."

Lions were dire last year and thumped 42-7 by the Saints in week 16, they will probably improve this season,that will not be hard, but I am not sure that throwing a rookie quarterback into the deep end, albeit the first overall draft pick, is a good idea. Matthew Stafford has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions in pre season and is likely to be in for a torrid time from the revamped Saints defense. I take New Orleans and will start our Superbowl book with a little on them too, they have a reasonable early schedule and the chance to build up some momentum.

6 points New Orleans -13 points 1.91 .......... even 13.5 points is acceptable to give up, but look for 13.

2.5 points each way New Orleans 21.0 + 1/2 odds 1,2...... up to 26.0 available.

SUNDAY ................

Swansea and Wrexham both won yesterday, hopefully, some of you took adavantage, it was a very good day overall with subscribers enjoying a couple of other email winners too and over 22 points profit on the day.

If you are betting on any of the games in the UK today take care, the weather is poor with heavy rain and high gusty wind, best to take a quick look in running before getting overly involved. The Oldham ground in particular is notoriously exposed and has always had my vote as the coldest ground in England, it's nickname of "Ice Station" should tell you all you need to know !

I saw that Huddersfield have been very well supported in that game this morning, perhaps people feel that the better footballing side might enjoy the conditions more, but it will not be a day for "fancy dans". Better to watch a little of all UK games first and then make up your mind.

Back later.

SATURDAY ...........

SCUNTHORPE UNITED- SWANSEA CITY

After eight games unbeaten, I think it is safe to say that Swansea are finally back on track, it was always going to be hard after Roberto Martinez left, he was Mr Swansea and took his top striker with him, but Paulo Sousa is from the same mould and is now making his mark in South Wales. The Swans are only five points off the playoff spots and f they they can start turning draws into wins a promotion push is not completely out of the question. They have been playing well, not just getting results and most of those games have come against good, ball playing, inform teams, including Doncaster, QPR (where Swansea had 60% possession and won the shots on goal count 15-7), Blackpool and WBA (57% 18-6). They have had a full week to prepare for this game, whereas Scunny were busy getting thumped by Manchester City in midweek, no real shame in that, but it was hardly a confidence booster.

There is more than a little bad feeling left over from an earlier Carling Cup game this season, when the Scunthorpe tactics left Sousa upset and reading between the lines, this is a match which he and his players really want to win....... revenge time. Off level ball I really like the visitors.

6.5 points Swansea level ball 1.98 asian line.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

EBBSFLEET UNITED- WREXHAM

Wrexham are my best bet of the day, they are a pretty big club at this level, but continue to underachieve. They have resources that few other teams have available and lower midtable, even with a couple of games in hand, is simply not good enough. Recent results have signalled an upturn and two cleansheets in as many starts, offer a platform to build on and they really should win with some ease today.

Fleet are heading nowhere fast and would be bottom of the BSP were it not for Chester's massive points deduction. The club is in a mess both on and off the pitch and boss Liam Daish spoke frankly this week saying "The club's rock bottom, we've got nowhere to train and I'm trying to turn this back to where we were. I'm not here to lay blame away from myself. I feel I've done the best I can with what has been given to me."

The club have no training facility and no funds available, to say they are goal shy is a huge understatement and they have failed to score in 67% of all competitive starts this season and just once in the last 650 minutes of football. Last week was a new low and they were comprehensively beaten 3-0 in the FA Cup by a lower league Bromley side.

The Wrexham board have again dug deep and allowed the team to travel south yesterday and stay overnight in a hotel, a rare luxury at this level and I expect the players to respond with three points and a very comfortable win.

7 points Wrexham -1/2 ball 1.94 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..........

I have not sent subscribers very many selections recently, but what I have despatched has been tip top information and I remain in fantastic form, including a clean sweep last saturday, with winners at odds of 2.875, 1.92, 1.67 and 1.97 . The last of those was clearly named as my best bet of the weekend and won easily by three goals.

It might be too much to ask for a repeat, but I do have another four bets today and am planning to post two of them on here. Remember, you do not receive all the selections, but what you do get is free and still excellent information, with 5 of the last 6 previews winning and the sixth losing to a 93rd minute goal !

Back later.

THURSDAY UPDATE .....

Just a quickie, Benfica won very easilythis evening, which was pleasing. I am just in the process of sending subscribers six selections for the next three days, but will not be posting any of them on the blog. So, rather than wasting your time checking in over the weekend, please note I will not post anything further on here until next week.

Good Luck with your bets this weekend !

THURSDAY ......

EUROPA LEAGUE

BENFICA-EVERTON

I am still not 100% convinced how interested Benfica are in this tournament, as a title challenge and Champions League place is absolutely essential after a poor 08/09 and spending so much in the summer, but they are saying the right things and could hardly be in better shape at present. They have won their last six, scoring an incredible 24 goals and do not have a league game until Monday night, they are fully refreshed after a lengthy break and are confident of three points tonight. The hosts expect Everton to come at them and not sit back, which should really suit Benfica, who are happy to try and outscore their opponents.

Everton have a massive injury list and a couple more not eligible to play, with six group points already in the bag and two home games up next, they do need the points tonight and certainly do not need to collect any more injuries. They have a big game at Bolton at the weekend, big that is if they are hoping to contest a top six place this season and a cup tie at Tottenham on tuesday, I do not expect them to be at their best this evening and feel the home side could run away with this one.

6 points Benfica -3/4 ball 2.17 asian line.

Good Luck.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

AZ ALKMAAR-ARSENAL

These are words that are likely to come back and bite me on the butt, but I really see little downside with the Gunners giving up one ball and make them my strongest bet of midweek.

They come here in very good shape, with seven straight wins and averaging three goals per game in every outing this season. Robin Van Persie and Thomas Vermaelen could hardly be in better form and will be ultra keen to impress returning to their homeland. RVP has scored in his last four games and has a lot ofcontacts at AZ, I suspect he will be very motivated to make it five from five tonight.

AZ have clearly regressed from last season and have already lost five times and the goals have dried up with just four in six starts, with only one point in the group games and facing a trip to the EmiratesStadium next, they will be forced to push forward here at some stage and that will play into the Gunners stength. Away win.

7.5 points Arsenal -1 ball 1.88 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY UPDATE ...........

Histon and Bournemouth both won, so that's four from four this week.

I am currently working on tomorrow's email for subscribers and will be previewing three matches for them, including, what seems likely to be a "maximum bet", my first in some considerable time. Obviously, I cannot post that on here and the other two bets do not offer much room for manoeuvre, so feel it is just easier to say that there will not be another blog post until next week.

Good Luck with your bets tomorrow !

SATURDAY ...........

DIVISION 2

ACCRINGTON STANLEY- AFC BOURNEMOUTH

Hosts are in a desperate financial position, players have apparently not received all their salaries and have had to play a number of friendly games, two already this week alone, in an attempt to raise funds. The first team started the match with Blackburn on Tuesday and some were again involved in some part last night (Thursday) when a low level US team came a calling. This is far from ideal preparation and I expect to see a somewhat jaded performance today.

Vistors are top of the table, but have a small squad and under a transfer embargo, they have no choice but to manage with what they have got. Their injury hit squad received a boost with the return to training of striker Jeff Goulding and they are looking to bounce back from a home defeat to Chesterfield last week. A free week and a little rest will have done them the power of good and if they can continue creating chances at the same level, 20 against Chesterfield, they will be fine. After a lack lustre opening 45 minutes in that game, they steeped up a gear in the second half and were unlucky not to turn things around. Twenty changes against a solid team like the Spirites is good going and they will surely get plenty today, against an opponent who play a very open style at home.

6.5 points Bournemouth level ball 1.87 asian line.

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

HISTON - FOREST GREEN ROVERS

I listened to the Histon-Cambridge game live on the radio recently and was impressed with the home side, who created an awful lot of changes and showed tremendous heart to snatch a late late equaliser, which was well deserved. They built on that with a very nice win at Tamworth, coming from behind to record a comfortable win and now face a very limited Forest Green side, who have only beaten fellow strugglers Chester and Grays in 15 starts. The visitors remain without a couple of defenders today and arrive hot on the heels of conceding five at home to Wimbledon last week. Hosts are boosted by the return from suspension of Adam Tann and have not yet given up on a playoff place, now that they have refound their form, to fulfill those dreams they need all three points today, especially with 3 of their next 4 games on the road, the next two at Rushden and Mansfield, two very resilient home teams. Home win.

6.5 points Histon -3/4 ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY UPDATE ..........

Fantastic start to the week with two really nice winners, IFK were backed off the boards yesterday and eased home, Brighton did their part tonight with a 2-0 victory.

I have already sent subscribers two strong bets for tomorrow (wednesday) but will not be posting either on the blog, so no need to check back before Thursday.

Good Luck.

TIME FOR SLADE TO GET BRIGHTON ROCKING................

ENGLAND DIVISION 1

BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION- GILLINGHAM

Hosts are very disappointed by their start to a season which promised so much. They have been unlucky with injury, which gives them an excuse of sorts, that situation is clearing up, boss Russell Slade has virtually a full squad to choose from now and results look set to improve. Last three games have shown promise, with a 1-1 draw at highflying Bristol Rovers where they led, followed by a 1-0 home loss to MK Dons, who are a very good team, in that game Brighton had the greater possession and goalscoring chances, before a dismissal turned the match on it's head. At the weekend they raced into a two goal lead at Yeovil, before losing a key player and allowing two points to slip.

That player was striker Liam Dickinson who had just scored, he is someone we have discussed in the past and he is very useful at this level, he has recovered to play tonight and I really like his pairing with the ancient, but still prolific Nicky Forster up front. Man for man, Slade has a better than average squad at this level and there can be no more excuses for him, or his playing staff. I fancy them to get a win tonight against a Gills team that really toil on their travels. You can look at results this year and argue that most of their away games, where they only have just one point from five starts, have come against strong teams, which is true, but they also shipped four at woeful Tranmere and few other teams will accomplish that feat this season.

Looking at the last two and a bit seasons, they are 11-10-30 on the road, which is borderline poor, especially considering they were promoted last campaign, but even worse when we consider that seven of those wins came in a golden 12 game spell late last season, take those away and we are looking at just 4 wins in 39 starts. They have slipped back into their old ways and this is clearly a team unhappy away from the garden county of Kent. They did manage a win by the odd goal in five at the weekend, but that was their first in five starts and came against a managerless and weak Wycombe outfit. I expect the home side to come good this evening and start a march up the table of sorts, otherwise Mr Slade had better get his c.v prepared ready for action.

5.5 points Brighton -1/2 ball 2.25 general quote.

Good Luck.

MONDAY ..............

SWEDEN SUPERETTAN

LANDSKRONA BOIS - IFK NORRKOPING

Long time readers will know that this is a "good " league for me and whilst I have not got overly involved this season, when we have bet, it has normally worked out well. I am confident that IFK will not lose tonight.

Following relegation after one season in Allsvenskan, few expected them to struggle back in Superettan, a division they won with ease in 2008, but struggle they have. IFK current sit in the drop zone with just three matches remaining, a point would take them out of the bottom two, infact, it could take them above three teams and even out of the relegation playoff group, which is a fantastic incentive. They will be without the suspended Roth, but otherwise have named a strong enough squad (see below) and to be honest, at this stage of the season, motivation over rides team news. The visitors are in reasonable shape, at least from a "not losing" point of view, with four draws in five starts and have a solid record here winning on two of their last three visits.

Hosts are ideal opponents, they have let their season fizzle out into mid tabe mediocrity in each of the last two seasons and are going for the hat-trick. They are safe from relegation and have not won in four starts, conceding six in the last two games alone. They have struggled on home soil in recent seasons , winning just 9 from 28 (32%) in the last two years. For a committed team desperate to survive, this is about as good a place to visit as any at this stage of the campaign.

IFK NORRKÖPINGS TRUPP (16 MAN):

Nuredin Bakiu och Anton Fagerström (mv).

Kristoffer Arvhage, Daniel Bamberg, Eirik Dybendal, Gunnar Thor Gunnarsson, Andreas Hadenius, Andreas Haglund, Armando Ibrakovic, Imad Khalili, Russell Mwafulirwa, Petru Racu, Viktor Rönneklev. Christopher Telo, Stefan Thordarson och Anders Whass.

IFK +1/4 ball 1.75 asian line.

Good Luck.

EMAIL AS PROMISED ...........

FRIDAY OCTOBER 10TH

We are in a very exciting position with the Sergio Garcia bet, where after just one round the 9.0 chance is now trading at circa 2.50 ! Profit is/was there (depending upon when you are reading this) to be taken, if that is the way you wish to go.

Two bets today, which I will discuss briefly and the next email will be with you tomorrow morning.

ENGLAND DIVISION 1

HARTLEPOOL UNITED- BRENTFORD

Brentford are going through a very "funny" spell at the moment, the central defence is really struggling, where Bennett who led by example last season is having a nightmare. Think Jamie Carragher at Liverpool, a team leader who the others look up to, who can do little right. Also, they are starting games very slowly and only waking up after the break, usually when they are a goal or two down. I have reproduced last saturday's match report from a Bees fan (GPG forum) below, it pretty much sums things up and I have highlighted a few points.

Bees will get things right soon, but have a very long trip North to face a team who at least offensively, I like and have discussed recently. Hard to see my beloved team keeping a clean sheet, but remember, they are likely to come on strong after the break, so the "over" looks the right way to go in a fixture that traditionally produces goals.

5.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line.

IRELAND PREMIER LEAGUE

DERRY CITY- SHAMROCK ROVERS

Shamrock beat Bohemians last week and now have a two point lead at the top of the table, with just a handful of games remaining. However, they can hardly afford to ease off, as Bohs have a superior goal difference and an "easy" home game tonight, so Rovers have to go to Derry and look for all three points. They have not conceded in two visits here (one win) and will be buoyed by the home side's injury list with Clive Delaney--Back. Stephen Gray--Ankle. Peter Hutton--Groin. Ger O'Brien--Ankle. Sammy Morrow--Ankle. Tommy Stewart--Knee. Mark Farren--Illness, all missing out, at least six of those seven can be termed regulars.

Huge game for the away side and given the team news, we can only lean one way.

7 points Shamrock Rovers -1/4 ball 1.86 asian line.

Good Luck.

We've got to defend much, much better and stop gifting teams one, two and three goal headstarts. Three home games in a row now that we've fallen behind and we have got to put an end to it.

The first half was Bristol Rovers all over again. Opposition who did nothing special but broke forward into our box with pace, and took their chances. They make it look so simple but we don't pick them up. Neither Bennett or Phillips got close for the first and I think Bull could have reacted better. There were questions raised at the start of the season about our defence lacking pace, yet again players are running in behind our defence and this was typified by the second goal.

Swindon were another side who knew that if they were well organised and didn't make mistakes then we wouldn't really threaten, and they were right. Too often Charlie was asked to win headers against a centre back twice his size, perhaps Bull should not aim his kicks in his direction.

The wind was making a difference but again we were devoid of ideas, the balls through the middle were either over hit or misplaced whilst Amankwaah had the better of Wood all game.

Again second half we improved and Saunders upped his game and was able to run inside while Cort was able to hold it up or at least flick it on to Charlie. Turning point was Charlie's miss. Saunders curled a beauty that came off the post and fell to Charlie with an open goal but he hit it on the bounce and it flew over. It was head in hands stuff. Wood had a header at the back post that came off keeper and post and the improvement was there to see.

Then the goal, Cort showed good quality and touch and a finish into the bottom corner and we all thought game on. But three minutes later its poor again and we commited far too many forward. Phillips looked dead on his feet at the end and was beaten far too easily although a great finish. Not sure what happened for the third, did Charlie head it/ was it deflected? Seemed a little strange but again why do we have to wait til we've conceded to produce the goods. Last ten we huffed and puffed but it looked unlikely, one thing I noticed was fitness levels. I thought they looked tired and I wonder whether our fitness levels need to improve now that we've gone up a league. A lot of the players were blowing at the end, not a criticism just an observation and perhaps more fitness work is required.

It is the same old mistakes, poor defending and weaknesses to pace and movement. Bennett can hack it against League two strikers who are immobile and like a battle, but strikers with a bit of pace have really had the better of him. We've got to cut out the errors, we will get nowhere until we sort this out and I think Scott needs to brave and drop Bennett and put Wilson in the middle and Foster right back.

There were some positives though, Bean was again excellent and I thought him and Saunders drove the team forward in the second half. Cort had probabaly his best game, got a goal and linked with Mac well. Until Strevens is back this should be the partnership because Weston isn't a striker and I don't think Kabba is the answer.

Today showed that we aren't a bad side and we can play some decent stuff but until we cut out the errors and defend better we are going to be mid table. I'm sure the stats will show we had more possession and shots but Swindon took their chances and that is what counts and something has to change.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7TH

EUROPEAN GOLF

MADRID MASTERS OUTRIGHT

Here is a bet I am hoping will still be giving us a warm glow through the long dark winter months.

Sergio Garcia has had a stinker of a year, little has gone right for him on or off the golf course and he openly admits he was not in a good frame of mind after splitting with his girlfriend early in 2009.

We have seen recent signs that he might be about to hit top form and in four events since missing the cut in the USPGA , he has shot 15 from 16 rounds under par and recorded top 6 finishes in two tournaments. Since when he has had almost a three week break to recharge his batteries and will play this week refreshed and I believe, very hungry.

This is Sergio's time of year and last October he won the Castellon Masters in Spain and two weeks later the HSBC event in Shanghai. Actually the last named was officially a 2009 tournament ,so in five standard european events, in a year about as bad as it can get, he is has finished 1-8-7-11-13 ! He is clearly very comfortable this side of the Atlantic and especially in his homeland, where he is a multi winner.

The course at the Centro Nacional de Golf should suit Garcia and the spaniards tend to dominate events in their homeland filling 60% of the top ten places in recent tournaments. Forget King Carlos, Sergio rules Spanish golf and I favour him to put his subjects in their place this week.

5 points each way Sergio Garcia 9.0 Ladbrokes/Corals/Sportingbet outright 1/4 odds 12345 ...... 8.0 + is good IMO.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY ...........

I am still alive ! I have not fallen off the edge of the world or anything, it is just that most of my limited output this week has been kept for subscribers.

I do have some information to pass on and will actually post today's email in full a little later, so please check back.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ...............

Fantastic day of sport ahead, with a very attractive programme of action in the EPL. Just a few basic notes about three of today's games.....

PREMIER LEAGUE

WEST HAM UNITED- FULHAM

I get the feeling that we will see the real West Ham today, apparently training has gone very well this week and they are fully focused on getting all three points from a fixture they traditionally do well in.

They have had a clear six days to prepare for this and the break has enabled Matthew Upson and Valon Behrami to return to the squad. Upson has been sorely missed and will help eliminate some of the basic defensive errors which have cost them dear recently. The Hammers have played well in bursts recently and it is only a matter of time before it all comes together. The visitors played on Thursday and have a gruelling recent schedule, this should be very entertaining and I take a narrow home win.

5.5 points West Ham United -1/4 ball 1.94 asian line.

DIVISION 2

BURTON- ROCHDALE

I am very keen on Rochdale here, they have been one of the very best sides in Division 2 over the past two seasons and deserve promotion this time round. After a shaky start, they are unbeaten in six, scoring at least two goals in each , including winning their last four. I rate them no worse than third in the league and expect Dale to battle out the promotion places with Rotherham and County, confidence is sky high at the club and all believe that this is their year. They are battling for every point and have no plans to enter the playoff lottery a third time. A win today will take them second and given their proficiency upfront, they will fancy a trip to Burton, who's home starts have been very open affairs with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

7 points Rochdale -1/4 ball 1.97 asian line.

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA

VFB STUTTGART- WERDER BREMEN

I have received very good reports about Bremen and they have been dominating recent starts after a slow start to this season. The visitors are unbeaten in eleven games in all competitions and have really tightened up defensively, with four clean sheets in five. It is not just that they are playing well, but allowing the opposition so little of the ball, with Bremen enjoying over 60% possession in their last five Bundesliga games, which included an away start at leader Leverkusen. A win today will take them in fourth spot in the table and that looks on the cards. Hosts are struggling to come to terms with the rigors of Champions League football and their players are struggling with the schedule, couple of key players are out today, including Alexander Hleb and at present, they look a shadow of the side which finished last season so strongly. Having discussed how tight Bremen are defensively, this is a fixture that normally produces goals, four or more in the last six, at an average of 5.50 per start. Therefore, i am going to cover with a small bet on this following suit and with a little luck, Bremen will edge a five goal thriller.......... you have to hope !

6.5 points Werder Bremen level ball 1.98 asian line.

2 points "over" 4.5 goals 4.70 exchanges.

Good Luck.

EUROPA LEAGUE .............

FULHAM - BASLE

Fulham rested pretty much an entire starting eleven for the first group game in Sofia and were still comfortable in earning a 1-1 draw. Boss Roy Hodgson has made it clear that was a one off and that he will name his strongest available team, with only minimal changes, for the remaining five games. With Roma home and away up next, if the Cottagers want to progress, they surely have to look for all three points this evening. The visit of the Italian giants to the south west London club will be a massive game in Fulham's history and very high profile, there will be far less media interest/pressure tonight and easier points to win.

Hodgson has vast knowledge of european football and probably knows as much as anybody in England about Swiss football having spent 6-7 years there coaching at domestic and national level and retaining his contacts. He rates Basle at a similar level to CSKA and whilst he doesn't underestimate them, he feels they will offer few surprises. The visitors opened with an eyecatching win over Roma, but I remain unconvinced about The Wolves motivation for this tournament and Basle home and away are two very different animals. Domestically they have conceded 39 goals in 24 road starts, that's an average of 1.625 per game and a big number is a league where usually, they are top three at worst and facing weaker opposition.

Fulham lost at home to Arsenal at the weekend, but earned almost universal plaudits for their performance, at times they out pased and out played the Gunners and few teams do that. Hodgson appears good to his word and has named the following squad : Schwarzer, Zuberuhler ,Pantsil, Baird, Kelly, Smalling, Hughes,Riise, Greening, Dempsey, Murphy, Gera,Nevland, Zamora, Kamara, and Johnson.

He might rotatae the front men and we could see Kamara and Nevland upfront, but these two are hungry and IMO the squad looks plenty strong enough with Gera and Dempsey also looking to get forward at every opportunity, to put two or more past Basle and I expect this bet to win with relative ease.

Fulham -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line......... 1.80 + is good IMO.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ...........

A quick look back at the weekend, for the second time in just four days a game involving Peterborough failed to produce a third goal to clinch the "overs" bet, after two came inside the opening 15 minutes in both, very frustrating ! It was still a good week overall for subscribers, but those two made a very big difference to the bottom line.

Much better news on the NFL where we are a perfect five from five after three weeks of the new season and the team we bet outright at 25-1 remains also unbeaten and are now trading at significantly shorter odds.

I have some brief notes to share about a couple of today's games, where we have a very busy programme both in Europe and domestically .........

DIVISION 2

BARNET - DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

LINCOLN CITY - NOTTS COUNTY

I am approaching these two games from very similar angles. The two visiting sides have been creating chances for fun and whilst the ball has not always fallen for them at the vital time, especially in the case of County on the road, I expect both to get far more chances than their less prolific opponents.

Since we discussed Barnet's paucity of goalscoring attempts before the Macclesfield game, they have collected just two points from three starts and had to come from behind to earn a fortunate point in two of those. Daggers, despite selling a host of players in the summer, have only lost once all season and remain a real offensive threat, they are creating an average of almost six chances on goal more per game than their London rival and that should be enough to see them home tonight. They are set to be unchanged and with this fixture normally producing goals, they are far better equipped to win a shoot out.

County and Lincoln only have one draw between them in 18 league starts this year and it seems likely that we will see another positive result for one of them tonight. County have not won on the road since their first away day, when they put four past Macclesfield way back in mid August. However, it is not as though they have sat back, or not created chance after chance away from Meadow Lane, they have dominated possession and created more in every start, which, given the quality of player at their disposal, is as it should be. The Sol Campbell saga is now at an end and I think that is better for all parties concerened. It is time for County to start winning on the road, they average 7.67 attempts more per game than City, who have lost their last three starts by two or more goals, a similar outcome would not surprise me tonight.

Lincoln have made an eyecatching managerial appointment with Chris Sutton set to take charge after this evening, he will be in the stands and the home players will be out to impress him, but it will take time and more than simply his appearance at the stadium to turn things around. However, it might push the odds on County up a little, which is perfect for us.

6.5 points Dagenham level ball 1.95 asian line.

7 points Notts County -1/2 ball 2.05 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ...........

Four very basic previews today, content was written at 08.00 this morning, some odds are no longer available, others have increased.

ENGLAND

PREMIER LEAGUE
WIGAN ATHLETIC- CHELSEA

I discussed in some depth recently the point that Chelsea get stronger the longer their games wear on and the fact that very few of their goals have come in the opening 40 minutes or so. That sequence has continued and they travel North to meet a well rested Wigan side, who offer a physical challenge ahead of a Champions League tie in midweek.The hosts have already held Everton and Manchester United to the break this season, even though they conceded five in the second half against United. The half time draw is very competitively priced and will be my selection, if the bet is landed, you might then want to consider backing the Blues "in running" to win the second period, which is very likely.

4 points Half Time draw 2.75 Bet 365 ........ 2.625 general quote.

CHAMPIONSHIP
BLACKPOOL- PETERBOROUGH

Peterborough were discussed twice this week, you know my thoughts about the Posh open style of play and in their last home start, Blackpool also adopted a very offensive minded approach, really taking the game to Newcastle. That worked well and with Pool playing very confidently at the moment, I am sure that this match will follow suit and will produce plenty of end to end action. That will be "right up the visitors street" and they would be my idea of the winners here, but I believe the "over" offers far better value.

6 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.08 asian line.

SCOTLAND ...SPL
HEARTS - HAMILTON

I feel that Hearts are the third best team in the SPL, they started the season slowly but are definitely coming to hand and were very unlucky not to have beaten both Rangers and Celtic recently, after taking the lead in both matches and dominating large periods of play. Late goals have been a problem, they also threw two points away at St Johnstone deep in injury time, but on their day, they are more than a match for anyone in the SPL and they face a very weak Hamilton side today, who lost all their key players in the summer.

The visitors are lost away from home and have already received a 3-0 beating at Kilmarnock and a 4-1 defeat at Ibrox, where Rangers could have scored any number and to be honest, those two teams have hardly been prolific goalscorers this season, Killie only have two goals in their other four starts and the Gers have been held goalless by Motherwell and Killie and struggled to beat Legue 1 side Queen of the South since then. The omens are not good and I cannot see beyond the home win and once the first goal comes, the floodgates could open.

6.5 points Hearts -1 ball 2.0 asian line.

IRELAND..... PREMIER LEAGUE
SLIGO ROVERS- SHAMROCK ROVERS

Really like the visitors here, they have already beaten Sligo three times this season, including a 3-0 win here where the margin of victory could have been much higher and have a fantastic incentive to win as they would go top at least until Tuesday, when Bohemians play again.

They have been eating away at Bohs lead for weeks now and I do not see them blowing this opportunity. They have not lost a league start since Methuselah was a young man and meet a home side who might be feeling the strain of a tough September, where they have had three titanic battles with the league leaders and with other targets ahead, they are heavily involved in two cup competitions, they might not be as focused as the visitors.

7 points Shamrock Rovers -1/2 ball 1.90 general quote.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ..........

I am in two minds what to do with the blog and will have to give it some serious thought in the next week or so.

The problem is that I have become far more selective with my email selections, as a result of which, there are fewer previews to choose from and post on here. I still cover quite a few games at the weekend when it is less of a problem, but midweek is very difficult. My additional concern is that here you receive so little of my output, that you might easily miss all the winners and only get losers.

For example, on Sunday I sent six selections, five won and one was "stakes returned", there was nothing on Monday, Tuesday I had one winner and the loser you received here, more about that later and yesterday another two games, which both won. So ten games in total, one loser , one stakes returned and eight winners, blog readers got just one winner !

Don't get me wrong, the information is still very good, but will be far more in the hands of the gambling gods and I am not sure how I feel about that.

The Peterborough bet was incredibly unlucky btw, we had two goals after 31 minutes and before the break, Boro had also hit the woodwork twice and the visitors had two "good" penalty appeals turned down. In total, the home side had 21 attempts on target in the game, that is the biggest number I have seen in a very long time between two teams from the same division. This game should have produced six goals let alone two ! The "gods" owe us one !

Good Luck.

ENGLAND....CARLING CUP

PETERBOROUGH UNITED- NEWCASTLE UNITED

I will be absolutely amazed if this match doesn't produce goals. Hosts are buoyed after earning their first league win of the season, coming back from two goals down to defeat Reading at the weekend. They will want to build on that and boss Darren Ferguson believes that his team can challenge for a playoff spot despite their slow start. Posh are clearly building up a head of steam and will get a test of their abilities tonight, with no league points on the line, which is fine for both and I believe we will see two relaxed teams on the pitch.

Home defence is fragile and Boro have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 starts, they are far more talented at the other end of the pitch and will spend much of this season, simply trying to outscore the opposition, this is not a team that can try to hold on to a lead.

Visitors have not looked so defensively sound in recent weeks, they conceded three in the last round against League 1 Huddersfield and were given the run around by Blackpool last midweek, when the home side pretty much dominated play ,they will miss Khizanishvili at the back tonight. "Overs".

"over" 2.5 goals 1.95 asian line.

Good luck.

SUNDAY .............

ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE

WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - FULHAM

I expect Wolves to go all out for the three points here. If they are to have any chance of survival in the EPL these are the type of fixtures they will have to look to win. They have far more striking options available today and face a visiting team who have not kept a clean sheet in six starts and who have travelled to both Russia and Bulgaria in the last three weeks and must be feeling a little drained. Roy Hodgson did rest several of his players for today, so he is obviously targeting a positive result too. Time for Roy and Big Mick to throw off the shackles,"Over" for me and very juicy looking odds.

6 points "over" 2.25 goals 2.07 asian line.

ITALY SERIE A

CAGLIARI -INTER

Visitors were given the run around by Barce in midweek and I feel that they were left feeling a little humiliated by that and will want to get a confidence boosting win today. Whilst they might be a little off the pace that the best of Europe has to offer, only Juve look likely to challenge them domestically and they created an enormous number of chances in beating Parma and Milan recently, 44 in total, big numbers for Serie A.

The two clubs met here late last season and the hosts edged an open game 2-1, the title was already in the bag at that stage and Inter had nothing to play for. Hosts seem to have regressed since then and are sorely missing Acquafresca, they have some injury problems today and I expect them to lose.

6.5 points Inter -1 2.12 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .............

PREMIER LEAGUE

BURNLEY -SUNDERLAND

I have seven games to race through, so as briefly as possible..... Hosts look short of EPL quality, they have beaten Everton and Manchester United at Turf Moor and that will not be an easy place to come to this season, but they really rode their luck in those two games, including both visitors missing penalties. They could quite easily be bottom of the table with zero points and then we would probably have been looking at even money quotes for Sunderland today. The visitors were pretty big spenders in the summer and the money has been invested wisely, they now look genuine top level quality, have shown that they can scrap out wins if necessary, as denoted by defeats of Hull, Bolton and Blackburn, who all pose a similar threat to which they will face today. Their front men pose a physical and speedy threat that Burnley will struggle to cope with and Michael Turner will not only tighten up the visiting defence, but also cause anyone problems from set pieces. Away win.

5.5 points Sunderland -1/4 ball 2.20 asian line.

DIVISION 2

CHESTERFIELD - MACCLESFIELD TOWN

I will not waste too much time on this one, I covered Town in great detail last week and they just failed to hold on to a lead over Barnet. Things are still not falling for them, but they are continuing to play well and I have to take a chance on them visiting a talented but inconsistent Chesterfield team who are struggling to keep a clean sheet. Last week's preview is reproduced below.

6 points Macclesfield +3/4 ball 2.04 asian line.

SCOTLAND ..... SPL

HIBERNIAN - ST JOHNSTONE

I really like the "over" here, hosts are desperate to bounce back from a horror show defeat at hamilton last week and John Hughes likes his team to play an attacking style. The visitors have similar ideals and their SPL starts this season have averaged 4.25 goals per game, they are unlikely to sit back and this one seems ceratin to produce plenty of thrills and spills.

7 points "over" 2.5 goals 1.95 asian line.

Good Luck.

MACCLESFIELD - BARNET

I am constantly looking for a team to follow, one that is playing much better than bare results might suggest and is underestimated by the oddsmakers. If I manage to hit them right, it is possible to back the side for several weeks before the bookmakers adjust their rating. Macclesfield look to fit the bill perfectly and they have been playing well for some time, without getting their just award. The added bonus today, is that they could be facing a team who have been over achieving.

It was a typical recent day at the office for the Silkmen last week, they completely dominated their match at Crewe, where they enjoyed 61% possession, a big number against a ball playing team and created 22 attempts on goal, yet contrived to find a way to lose by the odd goal in three ! The players and coching staff have remained upbeat , have been talking positively and are confident that they are a top half side.

Barnet have won five in a row, but have not been creating a lot of chances, just 46 all season, only Hereford have managed fewer and their total of just 17 on target, is a division low number. Hosts are averaging six attempts per game more and they have hit the woodwork on four more occasions, so it is clear which team is enjoying the greater good fortune in front of goal. Of course, you can also argue that Barnet are making the best of what they do create, but they cannot continue in such great form, posting these low numbers.

I really like Macclesfield off level ball and even if they do not produce the goods today, they look a side to keep on the right side of in coming weeks.

EUROPA LEAGUE .............

EVERTON -AEK ATHENS

I am going to give Everton another chance, despite their failure to hold onto a lead for us at Craven Cottage on Sunday. They will obviously have to give their league matches priority, but if they have any european ambitions at all and I am fairly certain that David Moyes does, then in a tough looking group and with difficult looking road trips ahead in this group, they need the three points tonight. As much as anything else, it would give a much need boost to their confidence, which has been brittle in the EPL.

They scored four here in the Europa league game with Olumouc, when they were able to forget their league woes and have also won their only home start since, with a come from behind win over Wigan. Hosts have big injury problems, but could name a line up of Howard; Gosling, Yobo, Distin, Baines; Osman, Rodwell, Fellaini, Pienaar; Cahill; Saha.

That still contains an awful lot of quality and should be too strong for an AEK team who always struggle on the road in europe. The visitors will be without the suspended Daniel Majstorovic and striker Rafik Djebbour, who has fallen out with the coach, they will come with their usual defensive mindset and this should allow the Toffees to get plenty of the ball and build up some rhythm. Strong home selection for me.

7.5 points Everton -1 ball 2.0 asian line.

BENFICA - BATE BORISOV

Hosts are on fire at the moment and scoring for fun, with twelve goals (!) in their last two league starts. However, they might be happy with a win of any sort tonight, the minimal margin might do and if BATE can rediscover the form they showed in last season's Champions League, where they performed heroically in the "group of death" containing Juventus, St Petersburgh and Real Madrid,even that might be beyond them .

That visiting squad has broken up a little as you might expect, but seven of them are current Belarus internationals, a nation who have impressed in recent starts, including the entire back line, who can expect to be busy tonight. They are unlikely to be distracted by the league, where they hold a ten point lead already and are a class ahead of the pack, two thirds into their season they should be at their physical peak and are capable of causing a surprise and certainly of keeping this close.

Benfica HAVE to challenge for their domestic title this season, it is five years since they even finished in the top two and for this massive club, that is simply not good enough. They were big spenders in the summer again and every focus is on a championship push, I am not sure exactly how motivated they will be for a big run in the Europa League, keeper Quim and Pablo Aimar are out tonight. The visitors get a big handicap start and they would have to lose by three for us to lose full stakes, providing they do not concede ultra early, that seems unlikely.

7 points BATE +1.75 goals 1.98 asian line.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP ...........

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE- WATFORD

Argyle remain without a league win, but they were very impressive at the Hawthorns on saturday, especially in the first half, when they took the lead and were very close to adding a second, which at 2-0, would probably have killed the game off. They also hit the bar at 2-1 down, the fifth time they have been denied by the woodwork this season. The Pilgrims have stuck with boss Paul Sturrock and he appears to still have the support of the players, the new signings he brought in have started to gel and that elusive first win is imminent.

Watford have over performed in my eyes, they have sold the crown jewels in allowing Smith, McAnuff, Priskin and Williamson to leave. the supply to the front men is drying up and the Hornets are depending on the goals of Graham to keep them in games. This can only continue for so long and I see these two teams heading in the opposite direction over the next few weeks.

Plymouth -1/4 ball 2.11 asian line.

Good Luck.

A few stats from the attempts on goal tables which are worth looking at :

In the Champioship, 13th placed QPR have created more goal scoring chances (90) than anyone else and have also hit the woodwork seven times.

Only Division 1 favourites Leeds United have created more than mid table Carlisle United, who definitely have goals in them. Walsall have only managed a Football League low total of 18 on target this campaign.

In the basement, as discussed in the earlier Macclesfied preview, high flying Barnet are making the most of what little they are creating at present and in a mirror image of the real table, are fourth from bottom in chances created.