FABIO NEEDS ALP TO COLLECT MORE THAN A POINT IN BASLE ..... (see what I did there ?)

SWITZERLAND - ENGLAND

Yet another fairly uninspiring day, although I am quite keen on the following selection.

After a big win over Bulgaria at the weekend, England will be happy to come away from here with a point against a home team who pose little offensive threat but who are terrible difficult to break down under shrewd and vastly experienced coach Omar Hitzfeld. His team went 559 World Cup minutes without conceding a single goal before Mark Gonzalez pinched one in Port Elizabeth for Chile, they had previously "stolen" a famous win over Spain who still went on to take the trophy. The Swiss have gone back to their miserly ways since with three cleansheets. Infact, 8 of their last 10 outings have produced one goal or less and with this being their first group game, we can expect them to line up very defensively and adopt a caution first approach. England will continue to play a variation on 4-4-2, regardless of what Capello might say, he finds it impossible to stray too far from his preferred and some might say dated formation, his idea to switch from this is for Rooney to simply drop off Defoe. Anyway England always struggle to break down well organised hard working teams, we have seen that recently against Japan, Algeria and the USA, Switzerland are in a similar mould and I expect the outcome to be pretty much the same. If the visitors do find a way through it is likely to take time and the half time stalemate at odds against is attractively priced IMO.

Half time draw 2.20 exchanges .... 2.10 general quote.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ...... A REFLECTION

Very poor day for me yesterday, the second in a couple of weeks, Peterborough should have won at Tranmere, everything was in their favour, they dominated possession, some 63% which is huge on the road and had Rovers penned into their own half for much of the game, but actually created few real chances. If they were to play this match under identical conditions ten times, I suspect Post would win 6.5-7 of those games, so being able to bet them at around evens is/was fantastic value but unfortunately, yesterday was one of the 3-3.5 ! That is football and whilst I am discussing the match at Prenton Park at the moment, it is really sports betting in general I am trying to make my point about.

It is impossible to win all the time. I am coming off an amazing 10-12 weeks when almost everything won, winning was easy, life was good and I felt like a combination of Superman and Jackie Graham ( that's for Bees fans). You have all been there, for that golden period gambling is easy, but there is a little thing called variance and it is there to bring you back down to earth and normally with a very big bump ! Your good run will end, it might last two days, two weeks, three months ( that was fantastic), some even last a year or so. But sooner or later you will struggle and finding winners will prove as difficult as it was easy a week earlier . If you like six teams and bet three, the other three will win, "that" goal never comes, players will miss when it is easier to score, the opposing keeping will have the game of his life and your team will not be safe even at 2-0 up with eight minutes to play ! You will be severely tested and it is now when you will find out how good a gambler you are, not when things are going your way.

You have to try and stay disciplined when the inclination is to "chase" losses and work even harder to get back in the winners circle. I made circa 32 units profit in that winning run, which betting almost exclusively on the asian markets is pretty damn good and have lost back about 5.5 units in the last three weeks. That might not sound much in comparison, but I have worked twice as hard in this period, almost nothing has gone right and it is tough to stay focused. The consolation for me is that ten years ago I would have lost 20 units back by now and that like a roller coaster, things are likely to turn around quickly. Keeping losses to a minimum when things go sour,mean that come the end of the year/season ( although sports betting never really stops) I will get full value for my winning run(s).

On the blog you will not always see these peaks and troughs as clearly as there are only some 20-30% of all "my" games previewed, but overall you should get some idea of the bigger picture. Just thought I would add that in case you are wondering what the heck I am talking about !

I sometimes use the blog as a sounding board and find it cathartic to write these things down, it helps keeps me focused.

Now that is off my chest, I can move on to the big game today Brentford - Sheffield Wednesday live on Sky, who are finally showing some "proper" football ! To be honest the Bees have a dire record in televised games, but I am assured by Owls fans that their record in front of the cameras is equally as poor, but I don't believe that as they beat us home and away in the 2005 playoffs ! No bet for me in this game or at all today, so I can watch purely as a supporter, which is how I normally prefer to watch my beloved Bees. If pushed, I suspect we will see goals and hope that most of those will be flying past Nicky Weaver in the Wednesday goal........ but no bet for me.

By the way, the photo ( taken by a young me about a hundred years ago and before someone asks, yes, they did have colour in those days, but black and white was cheaper !) is of said Jackie Graham, a player who never gave less than 100% and who my brother and I used to follow from pillar to post (stalk) around Griffin Park and beyond in our youth, forget your Messi's and Ronaldo's this was a true superstar of the game !

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

DIVISION 1
TRANMERE ROVERS - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

I have already talked in detail about Tranmere's dire problems this season, they are operating on a tiny budget, one of the smallest in the division and boss Les Parry is forced to try and cobble together a squad with a mixture of youngsters and cast offs from other clubs. They started the season with a big injury list and those problems have got worse in the last week and today they will be without a number of key players in defence and pretty much most of their midfield, they have conceded 9 goals in four starts at Prenton Park and are hardly on fire at the other end of the pitch with just 26 attempts on goal in four league outings. They meet a Posh side who are have been extremely active in the transfer market and who are pushing for a swift return to the Championship, they are very potent up front with 17 goals in six starts, their midfield is creating an enormous number of chances for the strikers and look set to have a field day against this weakened Rovers side, especially in the centre of the park. Posh are averaging almost 8 chances more per game than Tranmere an incredible six of which are "on target", these are very big numbers and a clear indicator of the gap between these two clubs, albeit being within in the same division. I have to make the visitors my strongest bet of the day.

Peterborough -0.5 2.0 general quote

DIVISION 2
BARNET- CHELTENHAM TOWN

Barnet are a club in trouble, I always read that they have a good group of players and that things are about to turn around, but the truth is I have not seen any of this, money is tight at Underhill, they have a mixture of untried youngsters and too old pros and anyone of ability is quick to leave and the bottom line is that they have won just five times in 36 league games. They are not a team I want to be backing anytime soon and I favour the visitors off level ball today. I saw Town at Brentford last month, they ran into a strong Bees performance in the first half and went in 2-0 down, but changed things around at the break and kept battling away, pulled a goal back and almost found an equaliser, they were definitely best in the second period.They looked like a team with an attcking threat that night and that has certainly been the case since, beating Crewe 3-2 next time out, it is worth noting that the week after this Alex put seven (!) past Barnet. They then raced into a 3-1 lead away at Rotherham, who are usually very tight at the Don Valley where they have only conceded 19 in 24, before losing 6-4 in "one of those games". Last week they again showed terrific character to come from a goal down to win and end Burton's unbeaten start to the season.Despite the goals conceded, I like what I have seen of the Robins and I can see them pushing for a top seven spot, they are averaging 5.5 attempts on goal per game more than Barnet and off level ball look decent value.

Cheltenham level ball 1.95 asian line.

Good Luck.

THANK GOODNESS IT'S FRIDAY ........... THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ..........

UEFA EURO 2012 QUALIFIERS
LITHUANIA - SCOTLAND

Briefly, I have to take a little on the hosts off level ball. Lithuania have 13 squad players plying their trade at, or above SPL level and those playing domestic football, should have a major fitness edge being 20 games into their season. Eight of the squad have actually played club football in Scotland, so will know their opponents well. The two teams have met three times in Kaunas winning once each, but Glasgow Rangers were also eliminated by Kaunas at the Champions League qualification stage in 2008 and it is hard to see the scottish players having too many positive mental memories of the city.

Scotland have once again suffered a number of late withdrawls/injuries and will be without six players, it is a clear sign of how few options they have that David Weir, at 40 years of age has been recalled to the starting eleven and he will set a record as the oldest player ever in the European Championship. This speaks volumes about Weir's fitness levels, but little about Scotland's future in the competition and their chances of qualifying for a major tournament for the first time in 12 years. Motherwell , Hibs and Celtic have already disappointed in Europe, scottish football is at a very low ebb and with Lituania having beaten Austria and Serbia here in World Cup qualification, it is tough to see the visitors breaking that poor sequence of results, especially given their recent road form, they have lost their last five away starts with a 0-15 goal difference !

Lithuania level ball 1.99 +.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .....

Both selections won yesterday and that puts us in front for the week, actually I think that the blog has shown a profit every week since early June, but I stand to be corrected on that and am sure that someone will !

Not tempting fate by saying that, as I am not posting any previews on here today, I am very interested in one EPL game, but will keep that to myself.

As a kind of follow up to my recent post where I covered a couple of regularly asked questions by readers, I often get a request for complete results for the blog with ROI and such like. Well, I do not keep those stats . The reason being that they have no meaning to me, they are only a fraction of my betting portfolio and it is not like I am trying to sell anything through the blog, I don't really carry links on the site, or advertise it or any product in any way.

If anyone has any business proposals to make to me ( which is how these conversations normally start), they can surely find out what they need to know by reading a few of the 3500 + posts, where it must surely be clear that I have learnt something over the last couple of decades . Even when I explain this to readers, they often then ask for my personal stats, which I find amazing, as they could just be pulled out of thin air and how would anyone ever know ? On the odd occasion that I have complied with this request, they then usually query them by return !

Looking back at yesterday's football, I made some notes pre season ( some of you were sent those) about how difficult it would be for Tottenham to compete in a first ever Champions League camapign and also stay competitive in the EPL. We have seen this before, recent examples that spring to mind are Atletico Madrid last season who laboured into 9th spot in La Liga and who are a club similar in many ways to the North London side and Real Sociedad, who probably regret their CL year of 2003-4, a season they never really recovered from. Of course, I am not saying that I fancied Wigan to win yesterday, but I would not be rushing to take Spurs giving up circa two goals to any EPL side this season, let alone straight after a very emotional and vital CL tie a few days earlier.

Elsewhere, Blackpool are going to be fun to watch again this season, their 4-3-3 formation at home to Fulham was brave after the thumping at the Emirates and they are likely to be equally as gung ho for their next two, which are Newcastle and Chelsea, both on the road ! Some unacceptable things have gone on off the pitch at Bloomfield Road, but all credit to the supporters, players and coaching staff who are a breath of fresh air in the EPL.

As for my beloved Bees, I am sulking and do not wish to discuss them this weekend ! But we finally got a decent cup draw, Everton beware !

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

I am hoping to bounce back today after the terribly bad luck we had with the York City bet in midweek, which I promise to never mention again !!!

Just basic notes about a couple of games and I might put up one more later in the day, but want to try and get to see a game this afternoon, so am unsure about precise plans at the moment.

Championship

Swansea-Burnley

Swans have not really had the reward their very attractive passing game has deserved yet this season. They have a terrible opening day record anyway, but it was never going to be their day at Hull, when Rangel was injured in the pre match warm up , meaning they had to change everything around very late and then hit the woodwork immediately before conceding. In their other road start at Norwich, they completely dominated the game, pinning the home side deep in their own half for almost an hour and then with time running ou, missed a penalty, before conceding an own goal ! Norwich boss Paul Lambert described the Swans as a "top,top side" and easily the best they have met so far. Few teams will go to Carrow Road and enjoy over 60% possession. At the Liberty Stadium they are much more effective, losing just six of their last 49 starts and destroying Preston 4-0 here a fortnight ago. Scott Sinclair a talented youngster whom Brendan Rodgers knows from his time under Jose Mourinho, has been added to the squad , he looks too good for the Championship and gives them an increased cutting edge.

Burnley have made a good start on their return to the Championship, but have yet to prove much away from Turf Moor. In their only road start at Ipswich they needed a 92nd minute goal to earn a point and were happy to sit back and let the Suffolk side have possession. Those tactics will suit Swansea perfectly, they are the best passing team outside the EPL and seem sure to get plenty of chances, with the visitors without an away clean sheet in 17 months !

Swansea -0.25 2.01

Division 1

Leyton Orient-Exeter City

Orient should strip much the fitter of these two and have firmly targetted this as a must win game, after resting several players for their home Carling Cup game with EPL side WBA in midweek. Hosts have yet to fully fire, but were free scoring in pre season and signs are there that Russell Slade's team are about to come good. There was plenty to like about their point away to Southampton last week and they can build on that against a City side that were devastated by the death of Adam Stansfield and who will be without three of their four starting defenders today, with huge problems in the centre of defence, leaving them with very few options. It is not as though they have been tight at the back in any case with two + conceded in all three starts so far. At the other end of the pitch they have managed just four attempts on target in two league outings, they have scored all four (!) but that strike rate cannot continue indefiniely. City will come and try to play football regardless of their problems and that will suit Orient.

Orient -0.25 1.85 +

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ............

Yesterday was a poor day for me, I had several bets all at quotes way above those available at kick off, infact, I could have closed all of them out for a profit at that stage, without a ball being kicked. Winners were hard to come by and reports read much as the York-Barrow game, where City had chance after chance, 23 attempts on goal, 16 of which were on target, 9 corners and dominated possession ! On 8 days from 10 they would probably win this game by three goals, but that is football and it is hard to complain about luck when things have been going so well, but I will anyway !

On a brighter note Brentford found a late winner to defeat Hull City 2-1 in the Carling Cup at Griffin Park, the visitors were an EPL side last season and I prefer to think it is a sign of how far the Bees have come in the last two years, rather than the Tigers have fallen, that this is not really considered much of a shock. The home side pretty much dominated proceedings and were worthy of a bigger margin of victory, as pointed out ahead of the Swindon game, someone is going to get a thumping soon.

Back later.

CONFERENCE .............

YORK CITY - BARROW

City are another side who narrowly mised out on a place in the Football League, losing in the playoff final to Oxford United, I was at that game and whilst United were worthy winners after racing into a two goal lead, all credit to York for keeping going and making a game of it. I was very impressed with front man Richard Brodie, who was named Conference POTY and not just for his goals, but his all round play and I am stunned that no one has yet come in for the 23 yo. It is very rare to find a striker his size, with pace , work rate and an eye for goal and surely he will find his way into the FL sooner rather than later. He is not the only goalscorer on their books with Gash and Rankine also being fairly prolific in their own right. Boss Martin Foyle has found a way to accomodate all of them atm, by switching to a 4-3-3 formation in the last two and a bit games, this allied to the signing of Peter Till from Walsall, who is an old fashioned and talented winger, means that they are creating chances for fun. It earned them points in two tricky away starts last week and now they are ready for a win in front of their own fans.

Barrow is so remote that even their own players are travelling fairly long distances for home games and at various times in the recent past they have trained during the week in either Preston or Manchester, circa 150km away ! So this cluster of games is far from ideal for them. The two teams met at the tail end of last season with City running out comfortable winners, hosts look stronger if anything atm and Barrow weaker having lost Andy Bond and Stuart Tomlinson to league clubs in the summer.

I have just watched highlights of the last two meetings here, Barrow had terrible problems with the pace of the York front men, especially out wide and Brodie had the freedom of the park , he scored three times over the two games and that number could have been doubled.Two teams with very different objectives for the season and time for City to start taking all these chances and a comfortable win looks on the cards.

York -0.75 ball 1.90 +

Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING .............

Shrewsbury had the lead for all of two minutes yesterday, but a draw was a fair result, Aldershot worked out quite quickly how to stifle the wide threat from the home side, who in turn, changed things around to combat the visitors midfield dominance. Early days yet, but both look playoff "fringes".

Brentford were again a little wasteful in front of goal and had enough chances to have sewn this one up early. The Bees remain a work in progress, but are heading in the right direction and will give someone a bit of a thumping soon. Division 1 looks very open this season, Southampton were expected to run away with the division, that seems unlikely, but they will come good and I expect them to be playing Championship football next season, everything else looks up for grabs. One for the diary....... Brentford's very attractive looking home game with Sheffield Wednesday is being televised live by Sky on September 5th. My beloved team are notoriously bad in front of the cameras, but the Owls have a similar record, so a chance for one of them to finally impress on television.

Chelsea looked a little off the pace in the Community Shield game, yet have scored 12 unanswered goals in two EPL starts, suspect that says a little more about their opponents than it does the Blues, but both they and Manchester United are clearly not prepared to give up their title dominance just yet. Hard to believe that Didier Drogba (and Lampard for that matter) didn't get on the scoresheet yesterday, but team spirit seems very high and DD set Salomon Kalou up for a goal at 3-0, when you would have expected him to shoot. Drogba was genuinely delighted for his Ivory Coast team mate,who also added the 5th goal and seems in a " good place" at the moment. Kalou has found life tough in the EPL (see photo !) and many of his goals for the club have come in big wins like yesterday against the weaker teams, hopefully he can build on this good start and contribute some more "important" goals this season.

Even at this early stage United will be looking to stay in touch and collect three points at Fulham today, a venue where they have lost on their last two visits. Although to be fair, in the heavy 3-0 defeat last season their injury hit backline included Carrick and Fletcher ! Hard not to see a little revenge in the air and this could be fun to watch.

All eyes will be on Roberto Mancini tomorrow and his team selection for the home game with Liverpool. He played what was effectively three (Toure, Barry and de Jong) holding midfielders at Tottenham last week and he has 8-9 of them (!) at the club to keep happy, but will surely be more expansive at Eastlands.......... I certainly hope so. There remains a lot to sort out in the blue half of Manchester, at WHL Tevez who was playing as the sole striker was also dropping very deep at times and with neither of the "attacking" midfielders exactly busting a gut to replace him up front, this meant City created little. Anyway, really interesting game in prospect for our monday football fix.

Not posting any previews on the blog today, please check back later in the week and good luck with all your bets today.

NO TAMING OF THE SHREWS TODAY ........

SHREWSBURY TOWN - ALDERSHOT TOWN

Hosts were expected to have something of a season of transistion, but vastly experienced boss Graham Turner has once again done some amazing dealing in the transfer market and Shrewsbury look good enough to once more challenge for a top 7 place. Confidence is sky high after showing plenty of flair and pace in the easy win over pre season favourites Bradford in their opener and by winning a seven goal thriller against Charlton, they were behind in both of those (0-3 in the latter) by the way which also says much about their resolve. Like all Turner's teams they are comfortable on the ball and once they have the lead, are tough to come back against. They proved that last week, taking a third minute lead away to a talented Macclesfield side and then daring the Silkmen to breakdown their experienced, well organised and resolute defence. I really like what I have seen from them so far and players like dutch youngster Benjamin van den Broek, look way too good at times for the fouth tier.

Shots are another team still trying to shake off the disappointment of missing out in the playoffs last season and have yet to put in a real performance of note, despite having four points on board. How they managed to steal one off Accrington, when they were given the runaround for 90 minutes remains a bit of a mystery and they took 81 minutes of labour to find a winner against a Southend side who's problems have been well documented.They have had a huge turnover of staff in the summer, resulting in what looks to my eyes a slightly weaker squad, it can also be argued that they overachieved last season and this could be a less exciting camapign for Aldershot fans.

Shrewsbury -0.5 2.10 +

Good luck.

SATURDAY .....

DIVISION 1
SWINDON TOWN - BRENTFORD

Swindon were always likely to suffer something of a hangover this season after coming so close to promotion last time round and boss Danny Wilson has not been helped by losing the cream of his squad in the summer.

After a promising first season in Division 1, where unlike most newcomers, they got stronger as the campaign progressed, Bees fans are also disappointed to have opened with two losses. However, they have strengthened the squad considerably in the off season and it was always going to take a little time for so many newcomers to gel and for Andy Scott to find his best combination. They were poor in an opening day loss at Carlisle, but despite losing 2-1 at home last week, the signs were there that things are coming together. Walsall scored with their only two real attempts on target, Brentford dominated almost the entire game and missed a host of chances. Scott now has some real options up front and with so many strikers at his disposal, it is unlikely that they will be as wasteful in the future. Confidence remains high at the club and a free week with no outside distractions has really helped the team as a unit, I understand that training has gone well this week and the squad got another boost when long term target Nicky Adams finally signed from Leicester City, Scott has chased him all summer long and this is the final piece in his jigsaw,at least for the time being.

These two met here just over three months ago, with Town winning 3-2, but that came at a time when the home side were still chasing an automatic spot and Brentford were tired after injuries left them with few options in the final month of the season and they were mentally already lying on a beach somewhere, with nothing to play for. Now the visitors are significantly stronger, with some six players who would have started last season "happy" to claim a place on the bench, Swindon are weaker and struggling to keep a cleansheet with five goals conceded in each of their last five starts and no longer have the same attacking threat to salvage a result. Expect the Bees to come good in the next week or two, hopefully starting today.

Brentford +0.5 ball 1.90 +

Good luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

I have not seen it myself yet but am assured that Nicolas Fauvergue missed an absolute sitter from one metre out for Sedan last night, That would have been the icing on our Ligue 2 cake, as Angers ran out comfortable winners in the second game . Still, a nice profit on the evening and whilst you only have my word for it (you all know I am a truthful lad), both my other two selections won, so I remain in very solid form.

Quick word about Fauvergue, he could not help save Strasbourg from relegation last season, but to average a goal in every two games in Ligue 2 for a team that only won nine times, is a fantastic achievement and he will get a lot of chances to improve upon that for a very attack minded Sedan team.

Not 100% sure about my plans for the next couple of days , but it is unlikely that I will post any match previews on the blog today, so good luck with your bets and please check back later in the week.

TUESDAY ....

I got a lot of feedback to my last post, which is always pleasing and I thank you for that, but am still in the process of replying to some of you, so please bear with me.

Big day today where I have found four selections, including one double stake (maximum) bet. I have put brief notes about two of the smaller bets below, as explained on sunday, these comments have been edited and both have been backed, but there is not much else I can do.

FRANCE LIGUE 2
DIJON - SEDAN

I like goals here, two offensive minded teams for starters and Sedan, who opened with a 4-3 road loss at Tours, do not like to take a backwards step and will probably stick with two men up front in all games, home or away. Dijon have similar ideas about the game, only promoted Brest scored more last season and no side in the top 13 conceded more on home soil. H2h record bears these stats out, last 3 meetings have been "over" with both scoring in 5 of the last 6.

"over " 2 goals 1.82 asian line..... if this is not available to you the 2.25 line at circa 2.08 is accepable.

GRENOBLE- ANGERS

Hard to see as much excitement in this one, a meeting between two teams who are very difficult to breakdown. Hosts were effectively relegated from the top flight by Christmas, scoring just 7 times in their opening 19 matches, their games opened up after that with teams seeing a match with Grenoble as points up for grabs, or probably more likely as potentially points dropped to rivals and the goal count increased accordingly, but that style of football is basically alien to them and they like to keep things tight, happy to stick at 0-0 and if they steal a goal, like in the robbery over Le Havre in their opener, then fine. Reports have been poor and the home side could be in for another long season.

Angers had a terrific season last time round, tightening up in the second half and moving from 13th up to 5th, just missing a promotion spot by 5 points. They have opened with two 0-0 draws and a third is not difficult to see, I have to take them getting a start of any description and this handicap mark looks good.

Angers +0.25 2.17 .

Both are now trading shorter, but bigger may be available later, or early "in play".

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .....

I have a little spare time this morning so plan on replying to a few points raised by readers in emails to me over the last month or so, this is normally about the blog, me personally, or my plans for the two of us. If anyone takes the trouble to write to me I always reply, usually within an hour or so, but some questions get asked on a regular basis, so time for a general update.

There is no longer a paid subscription service, I stopped that at the end of last year. That service made huge returns for subscribers who were prepared to take a long term approach to betting. It was not a get rich quick scheme, sports betting simply doesn't work that way.

The blog is similar, whilst previews are somewhat limited in number, it will make you a profit in the long term. I will hit the buffers now and again with a bad run, that is the nature of gambling and it is unavoidable, however, the blog has over a four and a half year period made very consistent returns and is, IMO, far and away the best of it's kind on the internet, but I am happy to be corrected on that.

This is a very tough business to beat, you have to work hard and continue to evolve, in addition to which bets are hard to place, almost impossible with the traditional bookmakers and whilst easier to play on asian markets, the odds makers there are light years ahead of their european counterparts, the exchanges simply do not have the liquidity on many games ....... as many people have said before, this is a hard way to make an easy living !

I have had to change my betting style again over the last twelve months, picking fewer games and doing even more homework than before. I am not going to go into too many details but there are no shortcuts, I almost never read any betting related content from other sources prefering to keep my mind free of outside influences and like to have a starting point from each of the leagues I follow closely. By which I mean having a very solid idea about exactly where one, or hopefully more teams are at the start of the season. This means that I do a lot of research on them, will see them play live once or twice and will probably have even been to a training session or two, it is amazing what you can learn from these. At lower levels there are few if any people watching and teams have nothing to hide.

I write notes every day about the teams/players I am interested in and these form the basis of what I post on the blog, though often I edit content, leaving out something I feel no one else knows (this is what I am. looking for, to know something before anybody else ) .It is hard to justify doing otherwise, when I have spent so much time, effort and often money compiling this information.

In an average week this probably leaves me with circa 12-15 matches worthy of betting, with possibly 4-6 of them proving difficult to get on. There are another 2-3 I do not want to write anything about at all for a whole vaiety of reasons and nearly all of the rest will have shortened, sometimes considerably, even if I am happy to then post them on the blog. Which is why we are down to maybe 2-4 match prevews on here per week, sometimes there will be more, but the average is likely to be around that number and you have to be aware that often the real value, those 6-9 "clicks" really add up and provide the jam for our bread and butter, will have gone. I want to be open and honest about all of this.

Having said all that, I have no plans to stop writing the blog, definitely going to hit the five year mark in the spring, which, with the average life of a blog being more like five weeks I take great pride in. Also closing in on a few other milestones...... would like to hit the 4,000 post mark and not far away from and closing in fast on 1,000,000 hits which would be sweet.......... I like symmetry in all things !

Back later.

SATURDAY .....

We came up short with the Tours bet yesterday which was something of a surprise to be honest, but I could not follow or watch the game, so have little to add to that.

I am not going to post anything on the blog today despite having four ideas, all are teams that I intend on following ( or opposing) to a certain degree through the early part of the season, so to preview any of them on an open forum makes little sense at this stage.

However, I have sent an email looking at a couple of these games to around 60 of you that have written to me in the past couple of months and it should already be in your inbox, if you fall into that category. If I have missed anyone out, you can drop me a line to stencelwade@btinternet.com before 12.30 uk time and I will forward a copy, but only to those of you that have contacted me previously and are therefore "known" to me, otherwise the whole exercise is pointless.

Pretty sure that I will be posting on here tomorrow, good luck with your bets today.

FRIDAY ..............

FRANCE LIGUE 2
ISTRES-TOURS

Sedan were the subject of very good pre season reports and it was something of a surprise to see Tours put four past them last week in a seven goal thriller, with new Ivory Coast striker Guie notching a hat-trick on his debut. Their squad looks much improved this season and definitely has goals in them, until the final weeks of last season by which time they had nothing to play for, only three clubs had scored more than Tours, so any improvement in that department is going to see them as real players this time round.

Istres are exactly the opposite, they were extremely lucky to survive last season, their defence was and continues to look porous, they were low scorers in Ligue 2, with the division's worst goal difference. Hard to see that those problems have been adressed, they have not scored in two league and cup starts, conceding four times and reports have not been good.

Tours won the reverse fixture 4-0 last year and despite losing here 2-1, that match came right at the end of the season when Tours were mentally lying on the beach and Istres fighting for their life. Visitors might well be the Ligue 2 surprise package this season, I suggest we keep on the right side of them for the time being and getting a handicap start, they have to be my choice tonight.

Tours +0.25 1.80 + bigger at IBC

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ......

Mexico led for 80 minutes last night before David Silva found an equaliser deep in injury time to rob us of half our winnings. I was only able to watch about 75% of the game, so cannot really say too much, but on what I saw, the hosts were very unlucky not to earn a famous victory over the world champions.

However, we have kept the fantastic run going and I have some very strong ideas for the weekend ahead, with a potential three double stake selections, which is going to make for an exciting couple of days. After a summer where the asian markets have been difficult to play, at least from europe, with low limits almost across the board, it has been pleasing to see decent stakes available in the past week or so, at least on the day of the game and hopefully this will continue. It is hard enough to find winners without the constant worry about "getting on" too, which was the problem in the old days, when the traditional bookmakers were the only option.

I had half made up my mind to just concentrate on four divisions this season, two in the UK and two in mainland europe, where I knew limits would be good, as I simply do not want to pick in leagues where stakes are limited, but that would have meant not picking in leagues that are arguably my strongest, so a real dilemma, hopefully this is a decision I will not now have to make.

This weekend will tell us a little more and I have fingers crossed that messsrs Sbobet and IBC will be open for business on the Conference, where I have some incredible ideas this season. I have watched several of these teams in warm up games and even two in training sessions (sad I know) and feel I have a really good grasp on where most of these teams are and do not want all this work to go to waste.

As always I will try to post what I can on the blog, but as you know my general approach has changed with far fewer selections (the benefits of which are clear) and the situation has not been helped by the staking problems, I just wanted you to fully understand my dilemma.

No selections on here today, please check back later in the week and good luck !

" EL TRI" ...... THE NEXT GENERATION .........

INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY
MEXICO- SPAIN

Think it will be very tough for the world champions, who travel to Mexico with a strong squad albeit without Iniesta and Torres, but short of rest and against the better judgement of their club's. The World Cup final was only a month ago and with the domestic season still 18 days away from a restart, most of these players are at a key early start of their preseason training. Barcelona in particular have been very vocal about this, but complaints have fallen on the deaf ears of Vicente del Bosque, although I understand that he will use plenty of substitutes and not make too many demands on any of his stars. As we have discussed many times, Mexico City is at an altitude of 2260m, to put this into context, Madrid is the highest capital city in europe at just 660m, so this will be a major issue, in addition to which, the match will be played in humid, stormy conditions.

Hosts are taking this very seriously and have named a strong side, with an emphasis on youth ......

Mexico’s confirmed line-up: Ochoa, Juarez, Moreno, Maza, Salcido, Torrado, Marquez, Guardado, Giovanni, Vela and Chicharito.

This is considered the golden generation of mexican football, half of whom were involved in the 2005 U17 World Cup winning side and they have grown up together. We saw glimpses of their potential in South Africa and now is their time, with the older guard having stepped down.

This match is to celebrate 200 years of independence from Spain ( Bicentenario) and will be played in front of a huge crowd desperate for some world champion blood ! Hosts with a start looks good .

Mexico +0.25 2.02

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

Well a very long final hour in the City-United game after our team were reduced to ten men late in the first period, felt like two matches from then on, but the visitors held out for a point.

That makes a good start to the domestic season with both selections winning, infact, we would have had seven winning blog selections in a row if Lyon had held onto a two goal lead with just 8 minutes to play last weekend !

Never mind, we have had 40 winners from the last 61 previews, a 65.57 % strike rate so it is hard to complain too much.

I have another two ideas for today, but for all the usual reasons will not be posting either on the blog, however I am likely to preview something later in the week, so please check back.

In the meantime, good luck with your bets !

BLADES TO CUT A DASH IN SOUTH WALES .......

Championship
Cardiff City - Sheffield United

City received a boost on friday when their transfer embargo was lifted, but I think it might take a little longer for the cloud over the welsh club to be lifted. They have had three weeks less recovery time than United having lost in the playoff final and the Blades know only too well , having fallen at the final hurdle themselves the previous year, how tough a blow that is to recover from and it normally takes a game or two to re-find your true level. Also, the financial problems at the club have yet to be sorted and they have had to let Joe Ledley go and replacement Jason Koumas is not yet fully fit, Stephen McPhail who is the real heartbeat of the side, although lower profile than several others, is missing today and will be sorely missed.

The ongoing saga in South Wales is getting to several of the squad, especially those who are being courted big time by other clubs namely Whittingham and Chopra, which might mean them being distracted and wary of injury whilst their future is being resolved.

United had terrible luck with injuries last season and were without 6-7 players for almost the full season, yet still finished 8th, just 5 points off a playoff spot. They have kept faith with boss Kevin Blackwell and he has been wheeling and dealing in the summer to improve the overall quality of his squad, making a couple of eyecatching signings most notably, Leon Briitton from Swansea (he will be in for a very warm welcome today !!!) who covers an enormous amount of ground and can pass you off the pitch at times and turned down a move to the EPL earlier this year and Johannes Ertl who will add a touch of steel in front of the back four, which will cut down on the fraililties United showed on the road at times last season. Having said that, they collected more points from losing positions than any other Championship side, so do not fret too much if they fall behind, actually only champions Newcastle scored first in more games than City so a Cardiff- draw double result or half time/full time bet at circa 17.0 might be worth a small interest if you are so inclined. However, United to get off to a flyer for me.

Sheffield United +0.25 ball 2.0 .... currently trading a little lower.

Good Luck.

LATICS LOOKING FOR FAST START ....

England Division 1

Tranmere Rovers- Oldham Athletic

Both of these clubs are short of funds and Rovers are operating on a tiny budget, one of the smallest in the division, former physio Les Parry has been given the coaching job on a full time basis and he is forced to go with a mixture of youth and cast offs from other clubs. Ashley Taylor one of his few "stars" will miss the opening months of the season and 5-6 players in total are unavailable today, with such a small squad, that leaves Rovers with a very difficult task this afternoon.

They face an Athletic side in somewhat similar financial circumstances, but by giving Paul Dickov his first coaching job, they have been able to take advantage of the well travelled professional's large number of contacts in the game, he has used them well,bringing in a number of quality players for this level including Ritchie Jones and Warren Feeney, plus taking a couple of EPL youngsters looking for league experience. Two french 20/21 year olds M'Voto and Tounkara arrived from Sunderland on season long loans this week, the first named played 41 matches for PSG and also has almost half a season at this level under his belt, having been with Southend last campaign. Both look the part , are very strong physically, motivated to do well and impress Steve Bruce or any of the other EPL coaches in the area.

Pre season could hardly have gone better for the Latics who have scored freely against lower league opposition, drawn with top flight Wigan and beaten both Preston (1-0) and a very strong Bolton side by a convincing 3-0 scoreline. Confidence is sky high at the club, around 2,000 fans are expected to make the journey to the Wirral today and over 500 turned up for a autograph signing in the town centre in midweek, this is impressive in an area where most are seduced away by the big name Manchester clubs. Dickov and Athletic want to build on all this momentum and with three relatively easy looking home games in their next four starts, three points today could see them off to a flyer. They look a side with goals in them and I feel they could flourish today against a side which had the second worst defensive record in the division last season, those problems remain unaddressed and it could be another long season for Rovers.

Oldham +0.25 ball 1.90 + asian line.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

My "friendly" selection won easily last night at very decent odds, the margin of victory was just a single goal, but they were worth a three goal victory and I remain, touch wood, in fantastic form.

Betting far fewer games does limit my options on here, but has really helped my profit margin, blog posts alone have a 63% strike rate in recent months with average odds of over 2.10. Overnight, I found three new selections, two for today and one very strong pick for saturday. All are now trading at significantly lower odds, an average 17 "clicks" across the three games. However, I am keen to post something on the blog today, as this will be my last post until August 7 at the earliest (so you get a little break from me !) and whilst I do not like putting up bets after the odds have gone, sometimes there is no option and often the line switches back again, or becomes available early "in play". Also, there is probably still a little, minimal value even at current levels, although we are talking bread and butter without the jam !

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFYING
AIK STOCKHOLM- ROSENBORG

Hosts who were national champions took the very strange decision to allow their better players to leave in the off season, without making any attempt to replace them, I do not know if this was purely down to budget, or some additional factors were involved, but with it, they effectively threw away any chance of challenging for the title again, or any success in europe. Infact, their domestic campaign has gone about as badly as was possible, they are in the drop zone,having lost 9 of 16 fixtures and scored fewer than any other Allsvenskan side. They did manage to limp through their opening Champions League game, beating Jeunesse of Luxembourg 1-0 on aggregate, again struggling to score and this against a side used to being thumped whenever they face anyone from outside their own country, they have not won a two legged tie in 47 years, despite being very regular participants !

Rosenborg have been the dominant force in Norwegian and indeed Scandinavian football for two decades and after a mini slump of a couple of seasons reclaimed their title (their 16th in 20 seasons) last season and are well on their way to another this year, with an unbeaten 11-7-0 record, conceding just 10 goals. Nils Arne Eggen who has enjoyed massive success with the club in the past, returned pre season and immediately stamped his personality on the team, he claims to play with three "enforcers" and three out and out strikers, which is kind of true.They certain have an attacking policy, almost always look to win and get forward very quickly, which combined with the dificulty in breaking them down, makes Rosenborg ideally suited to european football, which AIK are not. I suspect they would like to put this tie to bed this evening if possible, allowing them to focus on the playoff round, about which more later, I think they will win and see the draw as the only downside, you might want to consider the level ball option at low odds, but I will be a little braver !

Rosenborg -0.25 1.98 .... now trading @ 1.80 !

Saturday
Emirates Cup
CELTIC - LYON

I really do not know what the Celtic board were thinking of when they agreed to take part in this mini tournament as it comes inbetween their two legged Champions League 3rd round qualifying games with Braga. Of course it is all about money, but Celtic have to, at a minimum, make the playoff round, which will then be the biggest game any of the participants are likely to play, at least in the first half of the season, it is certainly the one with the most money at stake, coming with a passport to the riches that the CL group stage brings with it. To even get there, Celtic need to first see off Braga and weekend friendlies in London against the likes of Lyon and Arsenal are far from ideal and have been set up just to please the bank manager. Even if the scottish giants do put out a competitive team, which I doubt, they will surely be under orders to take things easy and given the English-Scottish "thing" are likely to be more interested in the match the next day with the Gunners in any case. Should Lyon put their best foot forward they can be expected to win with the minimum of effort and I rate them very strong bet material at odds against. Lyon arrived in the UK this morning and have a warm up game with Nottingham Forest this evening .

Lyon -0.5 2.09 IBC.... 2.05 Sbobet .

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

I only got to watch about 80% of the Spain game and missed the England goal, but it appeared to be very much one way traffic and as expected , an easy winner. I do have one more idea for today, an equally strong selection for one of the UK friendlies, but will keep that one for myself, too much of a good thing is not good for you !

Good Luck and please check back later in the week .

Plus ça change .......... Spain closing in on another championship ......

UEFA EUROPEAN U19 CHAMPIONSHIP
SPAIN - ENGLAND

Spain have looked very good so far, a mini version of the World Cup winners, with an identical, quick,slick passing style . Seven of the squad are on the books of Barcelona and even Liverpool's Pacheco, who already has three goals to his name here, also came through the youth academy of the Catalan giants and all of them, as you might expect, have picked up only good habits. Spain are looking to win the tournament for the 5th time in just nine years and will be in great shape after resting several players for their last group game, despite which they still scored three unanswered goals against Italy. They have no injury doubts and the mood in their camp is absolutely sky high.

England struggled through their group and progression looked unlikely until a few minutes from the end of their final game against France, who were resting players. Several key players are carrying knocks and they have had to send back to the UK for at least one replacement. They were outplayed for long periods by Austria and did not create an attempt on goal worthy of note against the Netherlands, with the dutch controlling the midfield, hard (impossible ?) not to see the spanish doing the same and I would have opted for a double stakes bet, but just missed out on the 2.0 available for this quote.

Spain -0.75 1.94 asian line. ( written Monday night)..... odds now lower but you might find similar nearer kick off, or early "in running".

Good Luck.

SUNDAY....

Very briefly, not going to post anything on the blog today, I do have three selections that I am very keen on, but have not been able to get my own bets on yet, so no desire to make things even more difficult than they already are !

Good luck with your betting today and please check back later in the week .

UPDATE ....

Coventry won 2-0, the second goal didn't come until injury time, although the Sky Blues were worthy winners and had hit the woodwork and had a goal disallowed in a scoreless first half . Two things about the game, it was a far more upbeat performance from Walsall, so maybe we will not jump to any conclusions about them just yet and Carsley did not take part which was a surprise. When I wrote the preview last night he was a "definite" starter, still, everything else was pretty much spot on and it was more of an anti Walsall bet than anything else in any case.

Mark Cavendish also won yesterday and could have taken the stage with Beth Ditto riding crossbar, with or without her cycling shorts. Pretty certain he will win again tomorrow, but the odds do not appeal in the slightest, so , maybe next year MC !

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .....

FRIENDLY : Walsall- Coventry City

Something of a local derby here and I would not be surprised if the crowd was split almost 50/50 between supporters of the two teams. City fans are sure to travel in decent numbers to see the debut of a returning favourite son in Lee Carsley, who has signed from EPL side Birmingham, Carsley is vastly experienced and will be a steadying influence in midfield, he has been given the captain's armband and goes straight into the squad today. City are yet to concede a goal in pre-season, that's four clean sheets and they are looking very solid at the back, but remain short of options upfront and are maybe a striker away from putting in a concerted playoff push.

Hosts were woeful against a youthful Wolverhampton Wanderers side in midweek, with the EPL side running in four unanswered goals and the number could have been much greater, I had a contact at the game and he said it was hard to believe how poor the home side were, even accounting for the opposition and Wolves were far from a first eleven. The Saddlers have a very young and small squad and unless they add some numbers in the next month or so, could very easily struggle in Division 1 this season. They created very little last season, with a league low 176 attempts on target, a number which makes their tenth place finish hard to comprehend and it is probably true that they overperformed last time round. Their midfield is sadly lacking any experience at all really and it is a Carsley type that these youngsters need, with very few league games between them. I do not see them getting too much joy in the centre of the park today, they are still trying to come to terms with their new 4-3-3 formation and are likely to play a couple of players still some way short of 100%, City giving up a quarter ball looks the way to go.

Coventry -0.25 ball 2.0 asian line.

Good Luck.

TGIF ......

I have a couple of strong ideas for the football today, but am unsure at this stage about whether it is possible to post either, or both, on here. The asian markets are very small at the moment and aside from the major leagues and games, I do not think that it is going to get any easier to bet from europe, unless you have an asian based agent and I have my concerns about going down that route again !

The problem is that I have no desire to preview anything when I am struggling to bet myself, that would just be madness. Anyway, we will see how it goes. For the time being, I can share some thoughts on the Tour de France, which will finish in Paris on sunday. Many of you received my email about Mark Cavendish earlier in the tour, so have those notes to refer to and the rest of you can read my previews from last year, which are on this link.

Reading either ,you will get some idea how highly I rate the british sprinter, especially given that I am 7 from 7 in betting him in stages over the last two tours. It is easy to love sportsmen when they rarely ( or preferably never ) let you down, which is very different from being a Brentford supporter, whom I love for a whole bunch of other reasons.

TOUR DE FRANCE
STAGE 18
Salies-de-Bearn - Bordeaux

This is always the stage set up for the sprinters, it is the carrot to get them through the mountains. The route into Bordeaux is as flat as a pancake and protected by woodland and vineyards, we are as certain as we can be that it will be a sprint finish. In Revel, Mark Cavendish proved that he can win without the best lead out man in the world Mark Renshaw, when beating off Alessandro Petacchi in the race for second, after Vinokourov had flown.

If Renshaw was riding today, IMO Cavendish would be 1.10 to win, 1.05 if we knew it was 100% a sprint finish. Without the great australian, odds are nearer 1.50 and 1.35, but he is still terrific value at close to evens with several bookmakers and on the exchanges. The great thing is that most bookmakers and Betfair have odds available throughout the stage, during the win in Stage 11, Cavendish was a similar price at the off ( 1.91), yet with 10km to race and a sprint finish guaranteed, he was still available at virtually the same odds and that stage was no where near as certain to be decided over the last 100m as today's.

So you have the option to bet him now or wait and take it with 10-15km to go which is of course the safer option. All I know is that with or without Renshaw and Team HTC-Columbia have others who can do the job, just not quite so good, Cavendish is the fastest human ever to sit on a road bike and no one can live with him over the last 100m, if they deliver him, he will win !

Cavendish to win Stage 18 1.91 exchanges and the odd bookmaker..... 1.80+ is good .

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ......

I am not going to be posting anything on the blog today and will probably have a fairly low key week blog wise, probably not posting much before the weekend.

Quite a few of you got a lot of information via email from me over the last weekend and hopefully did well out of the selections. I will do something similar in the latter part of this week too, but will only be sending to all those who didn't get anything last time, hopefully results will be equally as good this time round.

I do not want to be wasting anyone's time, so no need to check back in here before friday, when I will update the situation.

Good luck with all your bets in the meantime !

QUICK UPDATE .....

Ross Fisher, like a number of other golfers (most of them !) couldn't got his round going today, so was unable to make a charge at the top ten. However, he did beat his playing partner Villegas, so we got our stakes back and live to fight another day !

Good Luck.

FISHER ANGLING FOR ANOTHER TOP TEN SPOT ...........

Open Championship

Ross Fisher

Fisher is in a tie for 18th place after a 68 yesterday, this leaves him 5 strokes off third place and a good finish today could easily see him register a top ten placing. He was heading for a low round of the day, before driving out of bounds on the 17th hole yesterday, Fisher hit the ball well, but the wind suddenly died on him, resulting in a double bogey. However, he showed tremendous heart and character to immediately bounce back with a birdie at the last.

In post round interviews Ross was very angry about the 17th hole, but remained upbeat and claimed to be swinging the club as well as at any other time this year. He has already recorded a top ten in the BMW International in the last month and a runners up spot in the Scottish Open just last week, so is clearly in great form. Fisher proved himself on the world stage last year with at least a top 30 place in all four majors, including a 5th in the US Open and 13th in the Open, he also won the very prestigious Volvo Matchplay event and recorded a top 4 finish in the WGC Matchplay, so head to head, no one is going to worry him.

Many bookmakers have opened a book without leaders Oosterhuizen and Casey and I have seen Fisher priced up as high as 80-1 in this market which each way, equates to 16-1 for the place part alone, for effectively a top six finish, that is a working mans price and could provide a bumper payout, but I will suggest something a little less adventurous.

Fisher is 5.50 on the exchanges to reach the top ten and quoted at odds against across the board to win his two ball (with the tie) against Camilo Villegas, although the draw no bet option at a shade of odds on with Pinnacle Sports appeals slightly more. He is a golfer playing very close to the top of his game and if the early part of his round goes well, this birdie machine ( 6 yesterday, 7 on thursday) could really press for a top 6-7 place.

1.13 units Fisher to beat Villegas -113 Pinnacle..... or with the tie 2.14 on exchanges.
1 unit Fisher top ten 5.50 exchanges ........ 4.80 + is acceptable.

Good Luck.

That will be it for today, I do have one strong idea for the football, but do not want to post it on the blog for the usual reasons. Please check back later in the week.

SATURDAY .....

I will not be posting anything on the blog today, time is short as I am trying to get to a pre-season game this afternoon. However, I have sent my basic notes to at least half of the readers that are in my data base, so hopefully that will work out well. If not, at least the other half will have saved some money ! Anyway, if you did not get anything today, you are sure to be included in the next send out and I am fairly certain to be posting a couple of previews tomorrow on here, so please check back then.

Good Luck.

BEES GET A DRUBBING !

Sheriff won 3-1 yesterday after drifting badly (or nicely) through most of the day, money normally talks in asia but sometimes, these line movements are hard to comprehend.

Fulham put five answered goals past Brentford, which is very hard to write, but to be honest, defeat was on the cards as soon as I saw the starting line ups. The EPL side fielded a very strong eleven, whilst the Bees threw all their new signings together, four of the back five had hardly met, let alone played together, some experienced pros were left on the bench and a couple of trialists took part. There was only going to be one winner, it was men against boys and it didn't help that the home keeper had a bit of a stinker on his debut. Brentford were never at the races and the early quote after 10-15 minutes in asia of 2.0 about a Fulham win was a gift.

Anyway, I would not read too much into this result, Brentford will improve, several new signings are still set to be made and players will get a chance to gel in the coming weeks. Their fitness levels look very good, they were all monitored for body fat levels throughout the summer break and did a lot of running work last week in Portugal, this will all stand them in good stead, but they now need some game time. Hard to know what to make of Fulham, they looked good, but are unlikely to have an easier match all season . Having said that, it is difficult to see them being dragged into a relegation scrap even without Woy !

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY ............ KING KEV'S BIG NIGHT ....

Way off the mark on monday with my "over" bet, did not watch the game personally, but have some highlights to look at when I can find the motivation !

Brentford captain and fan's favourite Kevin O'Connor is having a testimonial game tonight to celebrate 10 years at the club, when local rivals Fulham come to Griffin Park, the theatre of sleepless nights ! Actually KOC is entering his 12th season and has over 400 games for the Bees under his belt, he is still only 28 and another four seasons could see him get to the 560 game mark, which would make him the all time record holder. Kevin is a model pro and you never hear a bad word said about him, or get less than 100% commitment on or off the pitch . I wish him a fantastic evening and an even better season !

I expect Brentford to be up for this despite it being a friendly, many Bees fans consider Fulham their biggest rival, despite the two division gap, I am of the generation for whom it was QPR, but to each his own ! Bees fans will definitely be baying for blood and looking to put one over the managerless visitors. However, I am looking elsewhere for a betting interest ......

CL Qualification
Sheriff Tiraspol- DinamoTirana

Huge class difference IMO between the champions of Moldova and Albania. Tirana won their domestic league easily, despite losing 9 of their last 12 starts and conceding a huge number of goals,including 23 in 16 road games,only the two relegated teams allowed more ! They are clearly defensively fragile and even Lahti, who are bottom of Veikkausliiga and who have scored just 23 goals in 23 league starts, but 4 past them in the Europa League last season.

Sherrif have won their domestic league for the last decade, that has given them huge experience at this level and they are certainly coming to terms with the higher level of competition. They have improved each year and actually won an international competition last season taking the CIS Cup. In the CL they beat a finnish club home and away, a clear form line with Tirana there and then put out Slavia Prague a vastly experience european campaigner. That finally got them into the final qualifying round where they lost to Olympiakos, which at least put them in the Europa League group stage and they also performed with great credit there, drawing with Steaua and beating dutch champions Twente, who were then on a 17 match unbeaten run.

They are very strong at home, 16-1-0 last season with a 46-2 goal difference and will want a cushion to take to Albania for the second leg, they are very focused on going at least as far this year as and will benefit greatly from the huge match experience against quality opposition that they gained in the last campaign, I see a minimum two goal win.

Sheriff -1.5 goals 1.95 .............. Bet 365 have this quote, as I type Sbobet and IBC have not yet released their lines, but seem sure to have something very similar.

Good Luck.

MONDAY .... IT'S OVER !

I guess justice was done yesterday and Spain have to be seen as worthy winners of the competition, Netherlands played a brand of "football" which would have sent a shiver down the spine of Neeskens, Cruyff and Rensenbrink and the game would have been the loser had they prevailed.

Only unbeaten team at the World Cup................ New Zealand !!! Wonder what odds you could have got about that !

Here are my brief notes about one of today's games .....

Stats might not be quite so strong as for Superettan which we discussed in detail last month, but we do normally see an increase in goals in Veikkausliiga when we enter the summer months, especially in July. The trend has been towards more goals in the Finnish top flight in any case, with the season producing 2.69 per game so far, up 0.25 over the same period last season, which is a massive increase. The 13 games since the beginning of the month have averaged over 3.3 per game, with 8 (over 61%) ending "over". This gives us a starting point for today's games and the one I am interetsed in is KuPS- IFK Mariehamn.

This fixture normally produces goals, the last 8 meetings have all involved at least two, with six going "over", matches in Kuopio have been even more fruitful, with all four here producing three or more, with three giving up four goals, two of those ended in a 2-2 draw, I expect both to score today and a repeat of that scoreline at circa 19.0 on the exchanges is not impossible at very rewarding odds for the more speculative amongst you.

KuPS were expected to struglle this season, but have exceeded all expectation and would go level on points with Honka in second position with a win today, they will be in confident mood on the back of two impressive wins, including putting six past Tampere in their last home start, their last ten home starts have all seen a minimum two goals with seven producing at least three.

IFK are in the relegation playoff zone which is something of a mirror image of KuPS season, as Mariehamn were expected to potentially challenge for a european spot, those dreams have long since faded and four points adrift of Oulu and safety, they need some points and fast. We can expect them to look for the wins, as their only two victories this season have come on the road, they are "over" in 5 from 7 away starts. They blew a 2-0 lead at home to Lahti last time out and despite their league position, have been creating a lot of goal scoring chances. Hard not to see goals in this one and given the general trend in the division, "over" has to be the call.

"over" 2.5 goals 1.97 +

Good Luck.